Brexit timeline

On June 23rd 2016, Britain voted to leave the EU. The timeline below tells the story of the events since that fateful day, collating all of the Centre for European Reform’s work on Brexit. The CER’s contacts in Brussels, London, Paris, Berlin and other capitals – and its expertise on economic, migration and security policy – continue to make it the key source of Brexit analysis for voters, policy-makers, journalists and businesses.

Oldest to newest

Newest to oldest

Referendum

23 June 2016

The Remain camp has been weak

As Britons go to the polling booths to decide about their country's EU membership, the outcome of the referendum is impossible to predict. But whatever the result, what prime minister David Cameron has called "a frenetic campaign" has failed to produce a compelling argument for Europe, EU expert Charles Grant told EUobserver.

Charles Grant

Эксперт о референдуме: Если Британия проголосует за выход из ЕС, союз потеряет внутреннее и внешнее доверие

Sophia Besch

Brexit by byl pro Visegrád rána. Kdo by pak brzdil dominanci Paříže a Berlína?

Odchod Británie z EU by pro země střední Evropy znamenal ztrátu důležitého partnera a spojence. Londýn byl vždy vnímán jako protiváha francouzsko-německého tandemu, jenž prosazuje hlubší integraci.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

Cameron announces resignation

24 June 2016

How Brexit should be done

In the early hours of this morning - when we discovered "Leave" had won 52 per cent of the votes in this referendum - the rules of British politics were torn to shreds.

John Springford

The impact of Brexit on the EU

The EU will not dissolve after Brexit, but it will change incrementally. The UK will probably end up with a free trade agreement like Canada’s.

Charles Grant

Britain's Out. Now what?

Before dawn broke on the Continent, the outcome was shocking, if not wholly surprising. The majority of British voters chose to leave the EU. So what happens now to the UK, the EU and the world beyond.

Charles Grant, Christian Odendahl

Welche Lehren der Rest der EU aus dem Brexit ziehen sollte

One positive element of the British EU referendum debate is the lively discussion about the economics of EU membership. And the verdict is relatively clear: the single market has benefitted its members.

Christian Odendahl

Viewpoint: Brexit throws uncertain EU off balance

A while ago France's National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen said that if the UK voted to leave the EU, it would be like the Berlin Wall falling in 1989.

Charles Grant

25 June 2016

How Leave outgunned Remain: The battle of the 'five Ms'

Remain suffered from unconvincing messengers, too narrow a message, difficulties over migration, a savage media and a ruthless Leave campaign machine.

Charles Grant

Falló Cameron, pero Bruselas ignoró el asunto

A eso de las tres o las cuatro de la madrugada empezaron a remitir las esperanzas de Camino Mortera, jurista ovetense, investigadora del Centro para la Reforma Europea, un "think tank" sobre asuntos europeos con base en Londres.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

26 June 2016

Europejskie domino

Brexit to przede wszystkim sygnał dla instytucji unijnych: trzeba się skupić na odbudowaniu zaufania obywateli do projektu europejskiego, a nie na pomysłach dalszej integracji - mówi Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ekspertka Centre for European Reform w Londynie.
Na nią nie ma apetytu w poszczególnych stolicach. Nie zapominajmy jednak, że za Brexit odpowiedzialne są przede wszystkim elity polityczne i eurosceptyczne media, które od lat prowadziły nagonkę na Unię
...

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

28 June 2016

How Brexit burst the Brussels bubble

The EU needs to start listening to its citizens, eurosceptic though they may be, if it wants to save what is left of the European project.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

29 June 2016

Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care

Britain is in serious trouble. It does not need further concessions from you, but the dust needs to settle before it can take decisions about its future.

Simon Tilford

Judy Asks: Is Brexit reversible?

A selection of experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.

Simon Tilford

4 July 2016

Por qué Reino Unido perdió la batalla

La hostilidad hacia las élites se ha convertido en una fuerza poderosa, no solo en Europa sino también en EE UU. Para la Unión Europea es un problema porque, según el autor, siempre será vista como una institución ligada a la clase dirigente.

Charles Grant

The Great British trade-off: Why the path to Brexit might be painful

Before the UK can enter this glorious new era of bilateral trade deals, the new Prime Minister must negotiate the divorce terms with the EU. He or she must also avoid damaging Britain’s existing trade relations with Europe. Welcome to the Great British trade-off.

Rem Korteweg

5 July 2016

Briten zum Brexit: Liebe EU-Partner, bitte behandelt Großbritannien mit Nachsicht

Großbritannien steckt in ernsthaften Schwierigkeiten. Es braucht keine weiteren Zugeständnisse, aber es muss sich erst wieder sammeln, bevor es über seine Zukunft entscheiden kann.

Simon Tilford

6 July 2016

Duelo de damas para el numero 10

Nadie le pidió a David Cameron que celebrara un referéndum sobre la permanencia de Reino Unido en la Unión Europea.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

11 July 2016

The first item in Theresa May's in-tray: A Brexit-induced recession

Theresa May will be the next UK Prime Minister, and sterling and the FTSE 250 rose almost immediately.

Christian Odendahl, John Springford

Long day’s journey into economic night

Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.

Christian Odendahl, John Springford

Theresa May becomes new PM

15 July 2016

How Brexit is changing the EU

By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.

Charles Grant

CER podcast: Discussion on Theresa May's new cabinet

A conversation about the strategy behind recent appointments, consequences for Britain’s foreign policy and trade relations, and an outlook on the start of negotiations with the EU-27.

Sophia Besch, Simon Tilford, Ian Bond, Rem Korteweg, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

18 July 2016

Britain's limited options

Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.

John Springford

Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?

The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.

Ian Bond

26 July 2016

Parliaments after Brexit: Building or stumbling blocks?

There is growing eurosceptic sentiment in EU capitals and the Commission worries that parliaments will complicate European integration. But they can be assets to the EU if they are better engaged in European business.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

28 July 2016

Six Brexit deals that Theresa May must strike

Britain’s exit from the EU will be far more complicated than most British politicians realise.

Charles Grant

Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals

Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.

Charles Grant

29 July 2016

Overcoming the poisonous politics of protectionism

Hillary Clinton faces an election that has come to revolve around the legitimacy of a political establishment that she epitomises. And no issue has fueled that challenge more powerfully than international trade.

Simon Tilford

CER Podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May’s visit to Warsaw

Sophia Besch talks to Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about Polish priorities during the Brexit negotiations and consequences of the British vote to leave the EU for the bilateral relationship between the UK and Poland.

Sophia Besch, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

1 August 2016

CER podcast: 5 questions on Theresa May's Brexit negotiations

Sophia Besch talks to Charles Grant about the six deals that the British government will have to strike – with the EU, the WTO and bilaterally – in order to realise the Brexit vote.

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch

5 August 2016

Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’

The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, John Springford

8 August 2016

Il n'y aura pas de nouveau traité européen majeur

Le Brexit est un événement capital dans l’histoire de l’Europe, et après lui le récit dominant sera non plus celui de l’intégration mais celui de la désintégration.

Charles Grant

18 August 2016

EU referendum: The beginning, not the end, of Brexiteers' problems

On 23 June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union. The referendum outcome triggered resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron and his replacement by former Home Secretary Theresa May.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

5 September 2016

Always look on the dark side of life: How Britain got the EU wrong

When the British people voted by 52 to 48 per cent on June 23rd to leave the European Union, the political and financial establishment was shocked. Why had so many ordinary Britons voted for a leap into the unknown?

Ian Bond

6 September 2016

Don’t give up on TTIP

TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, is in trouble. A chilly protectionist breeze is blowing across the west and the likelihood of reaching and ratifying a deal is receding.

Rem Korteweg

David Davis doesn't understand

His remarks in the Commons betray his failure to grasp the nature of the Single Market and his failure to acknowledge the Single Market’s role in boosting trade in goods and services among its member-states.

Simon Tilford

8 September 2016

CER podcast: Charles Grant and Nick Clegg on Brexit challenges

Charles Grant talks to Nick Clegg MP about the challenges facing the EU-UK exit negotiations, after the launch of his second 'Brexit Challenge' report.

Charles Grant, Nick Clegg MP

16 September 2016

Minus Britain, the EU brainstorms in Bratislava

As Brussels and European Union capitals get back into their political rhythm again after the summer break, the EU meeting in Bratislava on Friday 16 September is set to be anything but business as usual.

Sophia Besch

Juncker-Tusk: A clash of EU visions

On Wednesday (14 September), the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, delivered his annual state of the Union speech at the European parliament’s plenary session in Strasbourg.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

CER podcast: Simon Tilford and Alexander Stubb on Brexit and the future of Britain and the EU

Simon Tilford speaks to former Prime Minister of Finland Alexander Stubb about the implications of Brexit and the challenges ahead for the EU.

Simon Tilford, Alexander Stubb

19 September 2016

Why a hard Brexit looks likely

Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.

John Springford

Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse

Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities

Simon Tilford

Een berg Brexit-onderhandelingen: Keep calm and carry on?

Na de uitslag begint het harde werk. Hoe vorm te geven aan Brexit?

Rem Korteweg

20 September 2016

Brexit: What have we learned so far?

On 23 June 2016, the British electorate defied the expectations of political leaders, financial markets and foreign allies by voting to withdraw from the European Union.

Sophia Besch, James Black

CER podcast: Last week in EU affairs

Sophia Besch talks to Ian Bond and Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about the Bratislava summit, President Jean-Claude Juncker's State of the European Union address and defence union proposals.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

22 September 2016

Written evidence from The Centre for European Reform

Referendums on constitutional questions are too important to be settled by a simple majority of those who vote on the day.

Ian Bond

26 September 2016

Britain, don't blame the EU for your economic problems, CER says

The UK's difficulties in unlocking its economic potential lie at home and it's wrong to blame the European Union, according to a new report by the Centre for European Reform.

Simon Tilford

Britain's Brexit economy is "mediocre" compared to other EU countries

“Brexit Britain: The Poor Man of Western Europe?”, the latest report of the Centre for European Reform authored by Simon Tilford criticizes Britain’s economy and decision for Brexit. It brings forth evidence that Britain is not the strong economic leader that the public perceives it as being.

Simon Tilford

27 September 2016

CER report: The EU never held Britain's economy back

Britain's economy is sluggish and unproductive, and will worsen with Brexit, according to a report from the Centre for European Reform (CER).

Simon Tilford

3 October 2016

Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit

The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.

Charles Grant

Theresa May's game of Brexit chicken

Theresa May's speech to the Conservative party conference yesterday was only slightly less gnomic than her previous statements about Brexit.

John Springford

CER podcast: Charles Grant on negotiating Brexit – priorities on both sides of the channel

Sophia Besch talks to CER's director Charles Grant about Brexit red lines in Paris, Berlin and Brussels and a negotiation strategy for the British.

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch

4 October 2016

Storbritannien på vej mod 'hård Brexit'

Den britiske økonomi har i månederne efter EU-afstemningen klaret sig bedre, end hvad mange eksperter advarede om under valgkampen.

Simon Tilford

7 October 2016

Why Europe wants a hard Brexit to hurt

British ministers are being overly optimistic about the chances of a decent trade deal if they reject the single market.

Charles Grant

CER podcast: The rights of EU migrants in Britain after Brexit

CER researchers assess the credibility, legality and practical feasibility of political proposals to restrict the rights of EU migrants in the UK.

John Springford, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Sophia Besch

21 October 2016

Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy

The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.

John Springford, Simon Tilford

25 October 2016

Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks

The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Rem Korteweg

26 October 2016

What would an "interim" Brexit deal look like?

We will leave the EU without a long-term trade deal in place writes Simon Tilford.

Simon Tilford

CER podcast: Charles Grant and Jean Pisani-Ferry on UK-EU relations and the future of the Eurozone

Charles Grant and Jean Pisani-Ferry discuss the chances of a ‘continental partnership’ between Britain and the EU post Brexit.

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch, Jean Pisani-Ferry

28 October 2016

La caduta della sterlina non salverà l’economia britannica

Per capire se una sterlina più debole potrà dare una spinta alle esportazioni britanniche, dobbiamo andare a vedere l’impatto che hanno avuto i precedenti deprezzamenti sulla domanda estera di beni e servizi del Regno Unito, e anche sulla struttura dell’export britannico.

John Springford, Simon Tilford

15 November 2016

Brexit: The view from Central Europe

The UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU is a blow to Central Europe. The Central European countries will urge other member-states to maintain close ties with post-Brexit Britain.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

16 November 2016

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode one

In this episode, Barry Eichengreen and Martin Wolf discuss 'Are macro-economic policy failures behind the rise of populism?'

Christian Odendahl, Barry Eichengreen, Martin Wolf

21 November 2016

Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit

The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.

Charles Grant

22 November 2016

A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters

Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.

Simon Tilford

Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple

Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

23 November 2016

It's impossible for the government not to screw up Brexit with only 24 months to seal the deal

From figuring out the negotiations guidelines to drawing up a transition deal, parliament's vote, European Court of Justice reviews and even talks about who gets what wine from the Commission's cellar, drawing up a Brexit deal will take years not months.

Rem Korteweg

Autumn Statement 2016: How will Brexit affect the budget?

‘Brexit’ will be added to the Collins dictionary this year, and one Twitter wag suggested that the dictionary should tweak Theresa May by making the following entry: ‘Brexit (n): Brexit’.

John Springford

25 November 2016

Italian constitutional referendum: Much ado about nothing?

After the victory of "Leave" in the EU referendum and Donald Trump’s election as US President, Italy seems to be lined up as the next domino to fall to populism, with a referendum on constitutional changes scheduled for 4th December.

Luigi Scazzieri

5 December 2016

De kans dat de brexit niet doorgaat is nul

Wie het Britse brexitgetreuzel volgt, kan zomaar het gevoel bekruipen dat de eilandbewoners misschien wel nooit uit de Europese Unie zullen vertrekken.

Charles Grant

Are we heading for a hard Brexit?

While it’s nice to know what the options are, the main thing is trying to find out what will actually happen.

Charles Grant

8 December 2016

Britain is heading for the hardest of hard Brexits, but Theresa May can limit the damage

Theresa May's government is heading for the hardest of hard Brexits. That's what many European officials now believe.

Charles Grant

12 December 2016

Brexit and the economics of populism

Inequality, insecurity and a nativist backlash against immigration all help to explain the rise of populism. But globalisation does not prevent governments from addressing these problems.

Simon Tilford, John Springford

14 December 2016

EU defence, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Brexit and Trump compel European leaders to get serious about EU defence. But a lack of leadership and investment will make sustaining their efforts difficult.

Sophia Besch

15 December 2016

CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode five

In this episode, Martin Sandbu and Christian Dustmann discuss 'How should governments respond to migration fears?'

Sophia Besch, Martin Sandbu, Christian Dustmann

16 December 2016

Customs union membership is no way out of the Brexit trap

Remaining in the customs union seems to be the least damaging way for Britain to ‘take back control’, but it is fraught with difficulties.

John Springford

19 December 2016

Nicola Sturgeon Brexit adviser pours cold water on her single market plans hours before they are unveiled

Charles Grant said it was “extremely difficult” to see how her plans were legally, politically or technically feasible.

Charles Grant

21 December 2016

CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2016

Charles Grant, Simon Tilford and Ian Bond review the political themes and events that shaped 2016.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Charles Grant, Simon Tilford

9 January 2017

Brexit-folk er ikke globaliseringstabere

Siden et flertal af briterne i juni sidste år stemte for at forlade EU, har politikere og analytikere kaldt det et oprør fra vælgere, der er blevet ramt af globaliseringens ulemper og stigende ulighed.

Simon Tilford

May sets out plan for Brexit at Lancaster House

17 January 2017

What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?

Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.

Charles Grant

What does Theresa May’s speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?

Until now, Theresa May’s government has avoided being open about the trade-offs that Brexit entails: the more that Britain restores sovereignty, the greater the economic costs.

Charles Grant

18 January 2017

Was Theresa May nicht gesagt hat - aber ansprechen muss

Die britische Premierministerin Theresa May hat in ihrer Lancaster House Rede die zwölf Ziele der Briten in den kommenden Brexit Verhandlungen vorgestellt.

Christian Odendahl

19 January 2017

What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

Britain and the EU-27 view migration very differently. That could complicate the Brexit and free trade negotiations.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, Christian Odendahl

25 January 2017

What does the Supreme Court's ruling mean for British parliamentary sovereignty?

The Supreme Court ruled that Theresa May needs to ask Parliament for its consent to notify of the UK's intention to leave the EU.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

26 January 2017

Britain's economy: Enjoy the calm before the storm

Britain's economy has not weathered the Brexit storm. But the calm before the storm has lasted longer than many economists expected.

Simon Tilford

May is weak in Europe but strong at home

The EU-27 fear domestic politics will drive Britain towards a very hard Br‎exit. But Theresa May is strong enough at home to resist such pressures, if she wishes to.

Charles Grant

How will the election of the new European Parliament President affect Brexit talks?

Last week the European Parliament elected Antonio Tajani as its new president. The central question for the UK is what effect Tajani will have on the Brexit talks.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

27 January 2017

CER podcast: Rob Wainwright and Camino Mortera-Martinez on Europol and UK-EU security co-operation

Camino Mortera-Martinez talks to Rob Wainwright about the work of Europol on counter-terrorism and migration, the future of his agency and the effects of Brexit on UK-EU security co-operation.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, Rob Wainwright

1 February 2017

Parliamentarians in Brexit talks: Bulls in a china shop?

David Davis promised that Westminster will have the same scrutiny powers in the Brexit talks as the European Parliament would. But what does that really mean?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

UK white paper on Brexit

2 February 2017

6 February 2017

The €60 billion Brexit bill: How to disentangle Britain from the EU budget

A stand-off between the EU and Britain over the size of its exit bill could lead to the collapse of negotiations and an abrupt, disorderly Brexit.

Alex Barker

15 February 2017

Theresa May needs to compromise with the technocrats

As British prime minister, Theresa May has the right – and the power – to interpret the referendum result as she sees fit.

John Springford

16 February 2017

CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain

Discussion on the politics and economics that underlie differing views of free movement in the UK and Europe.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch

20 February 2017

Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult

What will the Brexit deal look like? Which are the key decisions that Theresa May still has to make? And what should she do in order to get the best possible deal?

Charles Grant

21 February 2017

The end of the transatlantic trade consensus?

Trump, Brexit and European scepticism about TTIP spell the end of transatlantic leadership on trade.

Rem Korteweg

22 February 2017

A quick trade deal with the US after Brexit is less likely than we think

It is many a Brexiteer’s fantasy: In 2019, shortly after the UK formally leaves the EU, Theresa May welcomes Donald Trump to Downing Street to ink a trade pact.

Rem Korteweg

23 February 2017

Trump, trade and the EU: Two wrongs don't make a right

The US will not gain by resorting to protectionism. If it does so, the EU should stay calm, listen when US criticism is justified, and make its first priority the defence of the WTO process and the rule of law.

John Springford, Christian Odendahl

Report: 'Deluded' UK cannot afford to be smug on Brexit

Britain is in a weak negotiating position and will have to win the goodwill of leaders in Europe if it is to avoid economic chaos following Brexit, according to a report by independent think tank the Centre for European Reform (CER).

Charles Grant

1 March 2017

Britische Trümpfe: London wird die Sicherheitspolitik in den Brexit-Verhandlungen nutzen wollen

Premierministerin Theresa May hat signalisiert, bei den Austrittsverhandlungen mit der EU auch Großbritanniens militär- und sicherheitspolitisches Gewicht in die Waagschale werden zu wollen – ein riskantes Spiel für die EU, aber auch für die Briten.

Sophia Besch

A quantum solace - defence in Brexit negotiations

The UK's exit negotiations with the EU have not yet officially begun, but it is already becoming clear that no policy area will remain unaffected - not even security and defence policy cooperation.

Sophia Besch

3 March 2017

Are the scenarios in Juncker’s White Paper on the future of the EU realistic?

On Wednesday, the European Commission presented its ‘White Paper on the future of Europe’, ahead of the Treaty of Rome’s 60th anniversary celebrations on March 25th.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

7 March 2017

CER podcast: Charles Grant on Theresa May's emerging Brexit deal

Discussion on the process of deciding the British position in Brexit negotiations, the value of the UK’s ‘trump cards’ and why European officials are pessimistic about finding a good agreement.

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch

14 March 2017

The four traps Theresa May must avoid in her EU divorce letter

To avoid disaster, Britain’s prime minister needs to get article 50 talks off to a good start – and that begins when she writes to Donald Tusk.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

17 March 2017

Berlin to the rescue? A closer look at Germany's position on Brexit

Brexiters hope that Berlin will adopt an accommodating stance in the forthcoming negotiations because of Germany's economic and security interests. Such hopes are misplaced.

Sophia Besch, Christian Odendahl

20 March 2017

Playing defence

The UK’s contributions to European defence will play a role in Brexit negotiations. But both sides should keep the long-term objective of close co-operation in mind.

Sophia Besch

UK triggers Article 50

29 March 2017

30 March 2017

CER podcast: Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska on the triggering of Article 50

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to Sophia Besch about the triggering of Article 50, the tone and substance of the letter, how it was received in Brussels, and how we can expect negotiations to unfold.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Sophia Besch

May announces snap election

18 April 2017

19 April 2017

Germany needs a strong EU. Why would it allow Britain an easy Brexit?

Angela Merkel’s government has no interest in indulging the UK during the negotiations – and a general election won't change that.

Charles Grant

24 April 2017

Brexiting Swiss-style: The best possible UK-EU trade deal

The softest form of hard Brexit that is plausible – given the red lines of the 27 and Britain – is something like Switzerland's deal with the EU.

John Springford

25 April 2017

CER podcast: What UK-EU trade deal after Brexit?

John Springford talks to Sophia Besch about about the best possible trade deal between the UK and the EU after Brexit. Based on new empirical research into the costs of trade barriers he argues for a ‘Swiss style’ Brexit.

John Springford, Sophia Besch

29 April 2017

Das Märchen von der britischen Einzigartigkeit

Die britische Elite hält ihr Land für dermaßen außergewöhnlich, dass es den Rest Europas nicht braucht. So war ihre Einstellung zur EU, so kam es zum Brexit. Und so wird es zu einer Demütigung der Briten kommen.

Simon Tilford

2 May 2017

Britain’s complacency over Brexit will end in humiliation

France and Germany don't make the mistake of thinking they would be better off outside the EU. The UK is deluding itself if it thinks it will prosper.

Simon Tilford

3 May 2017

The British and their exceptionalism

Few countries have allowed their sense of exceptionalism to damage their interests in the way Britain is doing. British overconfidence is unjustified and will come at a heavy price.

Simon Tilford

8 May 2017

How will Germany respond to Emmanuel Macron?

Germany is divided on how to respond to Macron: some are wary of a new bargain to revive the Franco-German alliance, others are enthusiastic.

Charles Grant

9 May 2017

A prime minister unshackled

Checks on prime ministerial power are weak in Britain – and Theresa May’s massive parliamentary majority after the general election will weaken them further. In the context of Brexit, this is dangerous.

John Springford

16 May 2017

Good cop, bad cop: How to keep Britain inside Europol

A post-Brexit deal on Europol should be relatively easy to negotiate. The UK could retain a special status, but the British government will need to make some concessions.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

18 May 2017

A flexible EU: A new beginning or the beginning of the end?

The EU needs to become more flexible if it is to tackle current and future challenges effectively. But it should do so transparently, and remain inclusive.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Christian Odendahl

23 May 2017

CER podcast: Why the UK voted to leave, and lessons for the EU 27

CER podcast on the reasons the UK voted to leave, how these political trends played out in the French elections, and lessons for the EU 27.

John Springford, Matthew Goodwin, Paul Whiteley and Florence Faucher

29 May 2017

Why 'Brexit' will make Britain's mediocre economy worse

An observer of Britain's 'Brexit' debate would be forgiven for thinking that the country's economy is one of the European Union's star performers.

Simon Tilford

7 June 2017

CER podcast: UK election primer

On the day before the UK general election, Charles Grant and Simon Tilford discuss current polls, the effect of recent attacks on voting, which issues were not sufficiently discussed in the campaigns and what would be the best possible election result for Europe.

Sophia Besch, Charles Grant, Simon Tilford

May loses majority

8 June 2017

9 June 2017

What does the election result mean for Brexit?

Brexit barely figured in the UK's general election, but the result means that the country might yet have an election fought explicitly on the issue.

John Springford, Simon Tilford

10 June 2017

Te wybory to klęska May, rządu i torysów

Wybory osłabiły pozycję Theresy May, także wewnątrz jej własnej Partii Konserwatywnej - mówi w rozmowie z Agencją Informacyjną Polska Press Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska z think-tanku Centre for European Reform.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

11 June 2017

May wanted a mandate for a hard Brexit. Now Europe expects a softer tone

Prime minister's crumbling authority offers a new chance for compromise – and the EU could scale back its demands.

Charles Grant

15 June 2017

How should the EU react to Britain's general election?

The EU-27 can force Britain's politicians to acknowledge Brexit’s trade-offs, by offering the British four options from which it must choose.

Simon Tilford, John Springford

First round of UK-EU exit negotiations begin

19 June 2017

The 10 Brexit compromises Theresa May won't talk about

Neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn said much about the substance of the Brexit negotiations during the election campaign.

Charles Grant, John Springford

23 June 2017

Hard Brexit, soft data: How to keep Britain plugged into EU databases

Retaining full access to EU databases fighting crime and terrorism will not be easy for Britain. Any deal will require a role for the European Court of Justice and keeping EU privacy laws.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

27 June 2017

Britain prepares for a softer Brexit

Britain’s general election has increased the chances of a ‘softer’ Brexit. But what would a softer Brexit look like? And could it include a customs union with the EU?

Charles Grant

5 July 2017

Brexit maze: The role of EU institutions in the negotiations

Theresa May will be reluctant to openly discuss the difficult choices ahead of the UK. Citizens and business should look to the EU institutions for information about their future post-Brexit.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

6 July 2017

The limits to Labour's 'constructive ambiguity' over Brexit

Labour proposes a "jobs-first" and hard Brexit at the same time. This means the party can't capitalise on the Tories' stewardship of the economy.

Simon Tilford

7 July 2017

Ulster's fight, Ulster's rights? Brexit, Northern Ireland and the threat to British-Irish relations

Brexit risks destabilising the peace process in Northern Ireland. The EU and UK may need to agree on a special status for the Province.

Edward Burke

10 July 2017

Arrested development: Why Brexit Britain cannot keep the European Arrest Warrant

The European Arrest Warrant (EAW) has made it easier for the UK to extradite criminals. But once it leaves the EU, Britain will find it almost impossible to negotiate as good an arrangement as the EAW.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

13 July 2017

Germany's labour reforms may not deserve their fame

Germany's start-of-the-century labour reforms are getting a lot of attention these days, both as the cure-all for the country's previous economic woes and as the culprit behind inequality.

17 July 2017

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Players and process on the EU side

Sophia Besch talks to Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska about the role of the European Commission, the member-states, the European Parliament and the ECJ in the Brexit talks.

Sophia Besch, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

20 July 2017

Brexit and the threat to Northern Ireland

A hard Brexit risks many of the gains of twenty years of peace and cross-border co-operation in Northern Ireland. Only a special EU status can stop the rot.

Edward Burke

1 August 2017

Why Brexiters should get behind Philip Hammond's transition

A comprehensive transition that includes continued membership of the single market and customs union is ultimately in the interest of hardliners in the British government.

John Springford

14 August 2017

Philip Hammond and Liam Fox's Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream

The deal sketched out by the international trade secretary and the chancellor is one the EU could never agree to. Why did they go public with it?

John Springford

No Britain, no missiles! EU has 'lot riding on' working with UK - ex-Macron defence aide

Europe has a "lot riding on" securing continued defence co-operation with Britain after it has left the EU, the former advisor to French president Emmanuel Macron Francois Heisbourg has said in a CER podcast.

Francois Heisbourg

15 August 2017

Ekspert: okres przejściowy sprzyja miękkiemu Brexitowi

Zawarcie w planach brytyjskiego rządu okresu przejściowego, w którym zachowane byłyby obecne przepisy dotyczące ceł, wskazuje na sukces zwolenników tzw. miękkiego Brexitu - ocenił w rozmowie z PAP John Springford z CER.

John Springford

30 August 2017

What the German elections mean for Brexit

The German elections will not affect the outcome of Brexit, whatever coalition partner Angela Merkel may choose.

Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch

3 September 2017

The EU is changing – and the UK attitude to Brexit could change too

The people running the EU have always wanted it to be uniform.

Charles Grant

18 September 2017

Preparing for a softer Brexit

The UK's general election has increased the chances of a softer Brexit. But what would that look like? And could it involve a customs union with the European Union?

Charles Grant

19 September 2017

How strong a Brexit card is Britain's money?

Britain’s strongest card in the negotiations is the money that the 27 claim it owes to the EU. But the money card gives Britain a pair rather than a flush.

John Springford

The EU will become less monolithic

The EU is becoming less monolithic and will develop tiers of membership. This could re-energise the enlargement process and neighbourhood policy – and may allow the UK to re-engage one day.

Charles Grant

May details Brexit stance, Florence speech

22 September 2017

25 September 2017

Brexit and energy: Time to make some hard choices

If Britain quits the EU’s single energy market, it will have to invest more in electricity generation, pay higher prices and accept a bigger state role in the energy sector.

Sir Philip Lowe

27 September 2017

Brexiters are being naive over US trade. Bombardier is a taste of things to come

Outside the EU's protective umbrella, Brexit Britain would be at the mercy of strong-arm US trade tactics.

Simon Tilford

2 October 2017

Andrea Leadsom refuses to deny Brexit splits with Theresa May

Former leadership candidate objected to Brexit transition terms and said: "I shall be in the cabinet just as long as the Prime Minister wants me to be".

18 October 2017

Judy Asks: Does May need Merkel for a Brexit deal?

No, Theresa May needs to impose some discipline and unity on her own troops in order to achieve a workable deal.

Charles Grant

30 October 2017

Populism – culture or economics?

Are economic factors to blame for the rise of populism, or is it a cultural backlash? The answer is a bit of both: economic weakness strengthens social conservatives' illiberal views.

John Springford, Simon Tilford

31 October 2017

What explains the "Brexodus" from DExEU?

The Department for Exiting the European Union has slowly haemorrhaged civil servants ever since its inception last year.

Beth Oppenheim

7 November 2017

Relaunching the EU

The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.

Charles Grant, Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Christian Odendahl, John Springford, Simon Tilford

Fast forward to two-speed Europe

Macron's calls for a more flexible bloc will make it more attractive to new members.

Charles Grant

8 November 2017

CER podcasts: Relaunching the EU

The CER has launched a major new report ‘Relaunching the EU’. In this podcast mini-series, CER researchers explain some of the reports main recommendations.

Sophia Besch, Charles Grant, Christian Odendahl, Luigi Scazzieri, John Springford

9 November 2017

Unia nie chce ukarać Wielkiej Brytanii – Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska w rozmowie z UKpoliticsPL

UKpoliticsPL: Jaki kierunek negocjacji z Wielką Brytanią przyjęła Unia Europejska?

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

How Brexit will unfold – Britain will get a deal, but it'll come at a price

The UK will end up paying €50bn and accepting a hard Irish border: 10 predictions based on my conversations with people on both sides.

Charles Grant

16 November 2017

Dig for Victory?

A UK trade deal with the US will create more problems for British agriculture and food consumers than it would solve.

Christian Odendahl, Beth Oppenheim, Christopher Haskins

17 November 2017

'Putting politics above prosperity' – wait, isn't that what the Brexiteers are doing?

David Davis's ill-advised remark to an audience of German businessmen reveals an alarming ignorance about the way in which the EU is conducting negotiations.

Christian Odendahl

20 November 2017

Speech by Michel Barnier at 'The future of the EU' conference

Michel Barnier spoke this at our 'The future of the EU' conference, click here to watch or read his speech.

Michel Barnier

Barnier says EU will not compromise standards in future UK trade deal

Chief Brexit negotiator tells a CER conference today any move to abandon European laws and regulations will complicate agreement.

29 November 2017

Ten predictions for the Brexit talks

Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.

Charles Grant

1 December 2017

UK + EU = Canada+?

A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?

Beth Oppenheim, Charles Grant

Europe holds all the cards in the Brexit talks

EU negotiators are confident Britain will eventually accept a deal on their terms.

Charles Grant

5 December 2017

The case for a slow-motion Brexit

Recent chaos in the negotiations shows that a two-year "implementation period" is entirely unrealistic.

Beth Oppenheim

Joint report proposes solutions for Irish border

8 December 2017

18 December 2017

UK should work more closely with MEPs on Brexit

When it comes to engaging with the European Parliament on Britain's withdrawal from the EU, Brexit secretary David Davis looks to have made a wise call.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

Brace yourself for the next Brexit faultline: The battle over transition

Will Theresa May be able to convince her party of the necessity for a transition period, during which the UK obeys EU rules without having any say in them?

John Springford

19 December 2017

Brexit Britain faces a reality check on trade

Britain and the European Union are finally set to begin what promises to be the toughest stage of the Brexit process: negotiating a new relationship and a transition phase to bed down the changes.

Charles Grant, Beth Oppenheim

20 December 2017

CER podcast: CER researchers review the year 2017

Charles Grant, Simon Tilford and Ian Bond review the political themes and events that shaped 2017, and take a look at some of the predictions they made last year.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Charles Grant, Simon Tilford

5 January 2018

TPP: The UK is having a Pacific pipe dream

The DIT has suggested that Britain should join the Trans-Pacific Partnership — but who's to say that we'd be welcome?

Sam Lowe

15 January 2018

Conference report: How to save the EU

50 leading economists, political scientists and experts on the EU considered the forces undermining the Union, and how Europe should respond to them.

Simon Tilford, Christian Odendahl, Sophia Besch

Because of Thatcherism, we can't get a good Brexit trade deal – here's why

The UK's approach to deregulation led to a bout of economic restructuring that now makes it difficult for Britain to impose its will on the rest of the world, let alone Europe.

John Springford

16 January 2018

Of transition and trade deals

The UK will not be able to replicate the EU’s free trade agreements ready for March 30th 2019. The only solution is to ask the EU for help.

Sam Lowe

22 January 2018

Holding out hope for a half-way Brexit house

The UK is considering 'managed divergence' from EU rules, which the 27 will reject. A better strategy would be to remain in the customs union and single market for goods.

John Springford, Sam Lowe

24 January 2018

CER Bulletin podcast: Trade post Brexit; EU vs Poland; Trump's foreign policy

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, John Springford

26 January 2018

'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?

The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.

Charles Grant

30 January 2018

Brexit: A view from Warsaw

Poland has a lot of skin in the game when it comes to ensuring a good Brexit deal.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

31 January 2018

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations phase 2: The politics of regulatory alignment

Charles Grant talks to Sophia Besch about how the EU-27 view the British idea of a bespoke post-Brexit partnership based on regulatory alignment.

Sophia Besch, Charles Grant

1 February 2018

Statement regarding comments by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker in House of Commons

The CER would like to provide the following clarification following an exchange in the House of Commons involving Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the DexEU which mentioned CER director Charles Grant.

Charles Grant

5 February 2018

Britain's services firms can't defy gravity, alas

Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".

John Springford, Sam Lowe

Britain is drowning trying to land trade deals

Brexit equals new trade deals. With the US, with China, with India, with everyone. All that’s needed is a Royal Yacht, decent jam to sell and a “go get ’em attitude” — at least according to some of the loudest Leavers.

Sam Lowe

7 February 2018

Theresa May can't afford red lines on Brexit

Future relationship has to be a trade-off between rules and access.

Charles Grant

15 February 2018

Brexit will damage UK services exports

Distance and economy size are the most important factors determining the level of trade between two countries.

Sam Lowe, John Springford

19 February 2018

Of course we will strike a bespoke Brexit deal — but that's not the point

The government’s “Road to Brexit” series of speeches has kicked off, with Boris Johnson and the Prime Minister making contributions so far.

Sam Lowe

23 February 2018

Theresa May's moment to soften her Brexit stance

Twenty months after the Brexit referendum, the British government is inching towards working out what to ask for in its future relationship with the EU.

Charles Grant

27 February 2018

The one thing May must remember: The 27 will not split

Theresa May will be on a hiding to nothing this week if she tries to present a Brexit plan on managed divergence in the hope that it will divide and conquer the EU.

John Springford

The Ukraine model for Brexit: Is dissociation just like association?

Some argue that a Ukraine-style association agreement offers the UK a viable model for its future relationship with the EU, combining both ‘sovereignty’ and close economic ties.

Beth Oppenheim

Commission publishes draft Withdrawal Agreement

28 February 2018

Liam Fox's shiny new trade deals won't compensate for hard Brexit

If Britain leaves the single market and customs union, the idea that future trade agreements will make up for the losses is for the birds.

Sam Lowe

2 March 2018

CER reaction to Prime Minister Theresa May's 'Road to Brexit' speech

"Theresa May’s speech was serious. It was good that she recognised that the UK faces trade-offs and will lose some access to the single market."

Charles Grant, John Springford

5 March 2018

How to think about Britain's post Brexit foreign policy

What impact will Brexit have on the UK’s foreign and security policy? While many Brexiteers argue it will lead to a global Britain, for many others it is clear it will result in a substantial loss of international influence.

Luigi Scazzieri

6 March 2018

Plugging in the British: EU foreign policy

As part of the EU, the UK has been able to leverage the resources of other member-states to support Britain’s foreign and development priorities. After Brexit, that will be harder.

Ian Bond

Germany should finally take the lead in Europe

Now she has won a fourth term, Chancellor Merkel should put little-Germany thinking behind her and be the leader that Europe needs.

Sophia Besch

7 March 2018

Theresa May's Irish trilemma

Theresa May must choose two of the following three options: an exit from the single market and customs union, no hard border with Ireland, and an all-UK approach to Brexit.

John Springford

8 March 2018

Jersey holds the key to unlock Brexit dilemma

Could the Channel Islands hold the key to unlock the Brexit puzzle? Trade expert Sam Lowe of the CER told EURACTIV that Jersey’s ‘strange relationship’ with the EU could be an acceptable ‘halfway house’.

Sam Lowe

9 March 2018

Der ausgleichende Faktor wird fehlen

Europa dürfte die Briten noch schmerzhaft vermissen, meint der Berliner Ökonom Christian Odendahl. Wichtige Errungenschaften der EU wie der Binnenmarkt und die Osterweiterung gingen direkt auf britische Bemühungen zurück.

Christian Odendahl

13 March 2018

Brexit and rules of origin: Why free trade agreements ≠ free trade

Without an EU-UK customs union British exporters will face a new barrier to trade: rules of origin. No amount of positive thinking and innovative solutions can eliminate this problem.

Sam Lowe

14 March 2018

CER podcast: Security after Brexit

Sophia Besch asks Camino Mortera-Martinez about future UK-EU justice and home affairs co-operation.

Sophia Besch, Camino Mortera-Martinez

15 March 2018

Will the unity of the 27 crack?

Some British politicians believe that the 27 will divide during the Brexit trade negotiations, because of their differing economic interests. But disagreements between the 27 are minor, thanks to Theresa May's red lines.

John Springford, Sam Lowe, Beth Oppenheim

UK and EU agree on money, citizens' rights

19 March 2018

20 March 2018

Ireland's border is a problem it can't afford to leave unsolved

The border issue could still wreck Brexit talks. But no-deal would damage Ireland almost as much as it would Britain.

Charles Grant

22 March 2018

The member-states and the EU: Taking back control?

The irony of Brexit is that the EU is becoming more British just as the UK is leaving the EU.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

British foreign policy after Brexit: Hand in hand?

British foreign policy priorities will change little after Brexit, but London will need to find new ways to rally EU support for them.

Ian Bond

23 March 2018

Ukraine is no blueprint for Brexit success

As European leaders gather once again in Brussels, the European Parliament has recommended the UK consider an association agreement with the EU after Brexit.

Beth Oppenheim

27 March 2018

Brexit and the financial services industry: The story so far

The City will survive Brexit, but it will not emerge unscathed. In order to remain competitive Britain’s financial services industry will need to adapt, as it has always done.

Mark Boleat

28 March 2018

Brexit financial services deal will be difficult

The industry has accepted that so-called “passporting” rights will not be possible after Britain leaves the EU. The concept of “equivalence” has been mooted as a solution but even agreeing to that will be difficult.

Mark Boleat

CER podcast: Brexit negotiations: Will the unity of the 27 crack?

Sophia Besch speaks to Beth Oppenheim and Sam Lowe about what to expect during the second part of Brexit negotiations – will the future relationship talks bring out different political and economic interests among the EU-27?

Sophia Besch, Beth Oppenheim, Sam Lowe

5 April 2018

Why Britain's vision for post-Brexit trade deals is probably an illusion

Is the United Kingdom actually a global bastion of free trade and liberalism? The honest answer is that we just don’t know yet.

Sam Lowe

9 April 2018

The UK and Europe: Brexit, rules of origin and barriers to trade

Where is the phone in your hand actually from? Designed in California, assembled in China, it says. But what about the components: the battery, the screen, the processor?

Sam Lowe

11 April 2018

Theresa's Irish trilemma

Theresa May must soon deal with an invidious trilemma. She can only choose two of three options: leaving the single market and customs union, maintaining a border-free Ireland, and pursuing a whole-UK approach to Brexit.

John Springford

CER Bulletin podcast: EU reform; Brexit and foreign policy; Europe and cyber security

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Camino Mortera-Martinez

12 April 2018

Is Labour selling the UK a Turkey?

A future UK-EU customs union should not be ruled out. While it would place some constraints on a future UK independent trade policy, the positives far outweigh the negatives.

Sam Lowe

13 April 2018

Don't be a stranger! EU-UK foreign policy co-operation after Brexit

The world feels a dangerous place at present. Relations between the West and Russia are at their most confrontational since the Cold War.

Ian Bond

23 April 2018

Post-Brexit hygiene checks will leave British fishermen all at sea

On the March 19th the UK and EU agreed, in principle, on a post-Brexit transition period. While this was welcomed by the vast majority of British business, one group felt they had been sold down the river: fishermen.

Sam Lowe

24 April 2018

The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution

With the UK leaving, the EU needs a revised budget. It should cut rebates, agriculture spending, and structural funds; and spend more on border security, education, and research.

Noah Gordon

26 April 2018

Plugging in the British: EU defence policy

Both Britain and the EU would benefit from working together to keep Europe safe, even after Brexit. But economic protectionism and a desire for autonomy may get in the way.

Sophia Besch

3 May 2018

A hitchhiker's guide to Galileo and Brexit

The debate between the UK and the EU over British participation in the EU’s space programme ‘Galileo’ shows how difficult it will be to disentangle economic and security interests during Brexit negotiations.

Sophia Besch

8 May 2018

Theresa May's meaningless meaningful vote?

Though many British parliamentarians believe Brexit will harm the UK, it is unlikely that they will derail it. However, Westminster could help to mitigate its negative consequences.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

10 May 2018

The battle over Europe's budget

Negotiations on the “Multiannual Financial Framework” are getting underway, but how to make up the Brexit-shaped shortfall?

Beth Oppenheim

15 May 2018

UK must swallow the unpalatable Irish backstop

Theresa May and the Brexiters should have the courage of their convictions and agree to a backstop that grants a special status to Northern Ireland.

Sam Lowe

17 May 2018

Theresa May's Cabinet customs row is irrelevant, it's the Brexit backstop that really matters

Theresa May and her Cabinet are currently embroiled in a heated and public debate over potential post-Brexit customs arrangements.

Sam Lowe

25 May 2018

Plugging in the British: EU justice and home affairs

Police and judicial co-operation will not be easier to negotiate than trade. To get a good deal, the UK and the EU need to move beyond their hard-line opening positions.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

30 May 2018

The first Swiss lesson for Brexit Britain: Negotiations never end

Like Switzerland we will always be arguing over something or other with the superpower on our doorstep.

Sam Lowe

7 June 2018

Merkel, Macron and the euro

In an email forum, three experts chime in on the German chancellor’s proposal for the eurozone.

John Springford, Pepijn Bergsen, Guntram B. Wolff

12 June 2018

MPs have been given a say on Brexit — they should use it

Last month the House of Lords sent Theresa May a clear message — Brexit does not have to mean her version of Brexit.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

13 June 2018

Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

Macron thinks the EU is not viable without radical reform. His priority is to reshape the eurozone, but Germany is blocking his bolder ideas. He risks isolation in Europe, which could weaken him at home.

Charles Grant

14 June 2018

CER Bulletin podcast: Transatlantic relationship; Brexit and financial services; UK-EU defence negotiations

CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Sam Lowe

20 June 2018

Single market in goods will come at a price for Brexit Britain

Many of the recent arguments over Brexit have concerned customs arrangements. But another thorny issue is creating discord both inside the British government and between the UK and the EU: should the UK remain in the single market for goods trade?

Charles Grant

CER podcast: Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?

Sophia Besch asks Charles Grant about Macron's progress on his reform agenda so far.

Sophia Besch, Charles Grant

21 June 2018

A potential Brexit landing point moves slowly into view?

Something like single market membership for goods would go a way to solving the Irish issue.

Sam Lowe

22 June 2018

Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit

Post-Brexit internal and external security co-operation arrangements seem as hard for the EU and UK to agree on as trade. Other third countries’ relationships with the EU provide models.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Camino Mortera-Martinez

23 June 2018

What's the cost of Brexit so far?

New analysis by the CER – which we will update quarterly – estimates that the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU.

John Springford

26 June 2018

The UK and Europe: What's the cost of Brexit so far?

Any reasonable observer will acknowledge that the Brexit vote has curbed economic growth.

John Springford

28 June 2018

Moving on after Galileo – lessons (to be) learnt

The EU and the UK have not been able to come to an agreement over Britain’s participation in the Galileo programme.

Sophia Besch

4 July 2018

CER podcast: Plugging in the British to EU justice and home affairs

Sophia Besch asks Camino Mortera-Martinez whether the UK will stay plugged into EU justice and home affairs structures after Brexit.

Sophia Besch, Camino Mortera-Martinez

6 July 2018

The first coherent Brexit plan that Britain has produced... the EU will never agree to it

On Thursday The Times obtained a draft of Theresa May’s plan for Brexit. Sam Lowe, of the Centre for European Reform, analyses the prime minister’s preferred way forward.

Sam Lowe

7 July 2018

After May's deal, many people will ask, does Brexit have any point?

Three experts, Vernon Bogdanor, Charles Grant and Claire Fox give their verdict on the compromise agreed by the prime minister and her cabinet.

Charles Grant

10 July 2018

Europe's response to May's plan could cost her more ministers

The EU’s initial reaction to the Chequers plan is polite, but negative. The prime minister will have to make further concessions before it is accepted.

Charles Grant

11 July 2018

Inching our way towards Jersey

The EU will probably reject Theresa May’s Chequers compromise. Rather than confronting the EU on its fundamental principles, the UK should build upon the foundations of a customs union.

Sam Lowe

CER event podcast: CER/KAS Conference on 'Plugging in the British: Completing the circuit'

Three panels of experts gathered at the CER/KAS conference, ‘Plugging in the British: Completing the Circuit’ at the Royal United Services Institute.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Charles Grant, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Yvette Cooper MP, Claude Moraes MEP, Peter Storr, Rosa Balfour, Simon Fraser, Paul Johnston, Nick Westcott, Felix Dane, Paul Everitt, Kori Schake, Julie Smith

13 July 2018

CER podcast: A guide to the White Paper

Beth Oppenheim asks Sam Lowe about the UK government's recent White Paper on Brexit, and whether it stands any chance of being accepted by the EU.

Sam Lowe, Beth Oppenheim

20 July 2018

The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit

The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.

Charles Grant

Dead or alive? A UK-US trade deal

The Chequers proposal would likely come at the cost of a transatlantic trade deal, but Theresa May is right to prioritise ties with the EU.

Sam Lowe, Beth Oppenheim

15 August 2018

How can we stop the M20 from turning into a lorry park?

To avoid disruption to just-in-time production, and safeguard British manufacturing’s position, Theresa May wants the UK to remain within the EU’s regulatory union for goods, alongside a customs union.

Sam Lowe

5 September 2018

Why May needs Brexit to go down to the wire

Michel Barnier has repeatedly warned the British that the clock is ticking in the Brexit negotiations, and there is wide consensus that Britain needs to get its skates on.

Sam Lowe

10 September 2018

Brexit and defence negotiations

In the enthusiasm about the EU’s numerous new defence initiatives in Germany, a discussion of the consequences of Britain’s withdrawal from the union is often curiously absent.

Sophia Besch

11 September 2018

Debunking the paper championed by Jacob Rees Mogg claiming a no-deal Brexit would boost the economy

The Brexit debate deserves so much better than Economists for Free Trade’s latest offering.

Sam Lowe

12 September 2018

Theresa May's Chequers plan may yet have some life in it

Theresa May’s Chequers plan for the future UK-EU relationship appears moribund.

Charles Grant

CER podcast: Another referendum?

Sophia Besch asks Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska and Beth Oppenheim about the prospects for another Brexit referendum.

Sophia Besch, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Beth Oppenheim

21 September 2018

Brexit: «Wir werden noch zehn Jahre verhandeln»

Charles Grant, Direktor der britischen Denkfabrik «Centre for European Reform», spricht im Interview über die Starrsinnigkeit Brüsseler Juristen, den weiteren Verlauf des Brexits und die Chancen von Boris Johnson als Premierminister.

Charles Grant

24 September 2018

After Salzburg: How to salvage the Brexit negotiations

Although EU leaders delivered the coup de grace to Theresa May’s Chequers plan in Salzburg avoiding no deal is still possible, but it will require some tough choices on the Irish backstop.

Sam Lowe, John Springford

Jacob Rees-Mogg and fellow Brexiteers' latest trade proposals, fact-checked

The past weeks have seen the publication of a stream of reports making the case for a harder Brexit.

Sam Lowe

28 September 2018

The EU should not fret about Singapore-on-Thames

At the Salzburg EU informal summit on September 20th, EU leaders read the last rites on Theresa May’s Chequers plan.

John Springford

There’s nothing ‘super’ about Boris Johnson’s tired old Brexit ideas

If Boris Johnson puts pen to paper and it doesn’t get on the front page of the Telegraph, did it really happen? I guess we’ll never know.

Sam Lowe

CER Bulletin podcast: Singapore-on-Thames; the Western Balkans; Italy

In the CER Bulletin podcast, CER researchers brief podcast listeners on three of the most important topics for Europe this month.

Ian Bond, Beth Oppenheim, Luigi Scazzieri, John Springford

30 September 2018

The cost of Brexit to June 2018

The British economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Remain had won in 2016, according to the latest update of the CER's cost of Brexit model.

John Springford

3 October 2018

Britain's best Brexit hope is a revised Chequers plan

A Brexit deal between the EU and the UK is more likely than not, because both sides really want one. But there is a serious chance of no deal, because of differences over the Irish “backstop”.

Charles Grant

Weetabix wars and X-Men: Welcome to the wacky world of trade post-Brexit

As a UK that goes it alone will soon learn, trade disputes are complex, bizarre and at times, well, a little petty.

Sam Lowe

4 October 2018

La muger que nunca ganaba a las damas

Como una buena reina del baile, Theresa May va a necesitar la creatividad de un buen jugador de ajedrez para cuadrar el círculo irlandés.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

8 October 2018

Remainers shouldn't assume EU leaders will welcome another Brexit referendum

Prime Minister Theresa May has yet again ruled out a new EU referendum. There has already been a people’s vote, and the people voted to leave, she told her party conference last week.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Beth Oppenheim

10 October 2018

„May ist ein Desaster”

Das Endspiel hat begonnen: Brexit-Experte Charles Grant über den Niedergang der politischen Klasse in England, das Trauerspiel der Premierministerin – und das Vorbild Schweiz.

Charles Grant

16 October 2018

Cumbres borrascosas

Esta no es la mejor semana para ser corresponsal, diplómatico o turista en Bruselas. Entre el martes y el viernes, la ciudad habrá acogido siete cumbres.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

17 October 2018

Regime Change? The European Economy to 2030

After a decade of putting out the fires of the Great Recession of 2008-09, the euro crisis of 2010-12, and the migration crisis, which blew up in 2015, now is the right time to ask: What regime does the European economy need by 2030?

John Springford

19 October 2018

Debunking Jacob Rees-Mogg’s claim an extension period will make the UK a ‘vassal state’

In an effort to break the Brexit negotiation deadlock over the Irish backstop, it is reported that Theresa May has conceded that the standstill transition period could be extended beyond its current deadline of December 2020.

Sam Lowe

A second Brexit referendum is wishful thinking

The UK's 2016 Brexit referendum was meant to put the vexed question of Britain's relationship with Europe to bed forever - it didn't.

Beth Oppenheim

20 October 2018

Ekspert: Briti parlament hoiab peaminister Mayd kahvlis

Sõltumata sellest, kas Ühendkuningriigi peaminister Theresa May tooks Brüsselist koju pehme või karmi Brexiti, püsib tõenäosus, et Briti parlament sellega ei nõustu, selgub intervjuust mõttekoja Centre for European Reform vanemteaduri Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

24 October 2018

CER podcast: The cost of Brexit to June 2018

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis, how he has refined his modelling method and the implications of the findings.

Beth Oppenheim, John Springford

30 October 2018

Merkel is going but Germany won’t shift its stance on Brexit

The departure of Angela Merkel from the leadership of her party will make little difference to the Brexit negotiations.

Charles Grant

5 November 2018

Why a woolly political declaration might help Theresa May get her Brexit deal through Parliament

The political declaration on the post-Brexit relationship between the EU and UK will probably be vague and lack legal authority. This could work to Theresa May's advantage.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Sam Lowe

12 November 2018

Whether transition extension or backstop, Britain needs to embrace the consequences

If reports are correct, the landing zone for Northern Ireland and the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement is in sight.

Sam Lowe

May's reckoning with the Tory right over Brexit is fast approaching

Over the years, different Conservative leaders have tended to use similar tactics to deal with the rightwing anti-EU minority in the party.

John Springford

May and EU publish Withdrawal Agreement

14 November 2018

15 November 2018

Brexit deal done – now for the hard part

Theresa May’s Brexit deal offers some crumbs to Tory hardliners, the DUP and soft Brexiteers. But if the deal passes through parliament, a UK-EU customs union is likely.

John Springford

16 November 2018

What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?

Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.

Charles Grant

19 November 2018

Yo o el caos: ¿conseguirá Theresa May sobrevivir a su propio 'brexit'?

Los oponentes de Theresa May tienen ahora una tarea formidable: convencer al electorado de que después de May no viene el diluvio.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

21 November 2018

CER podcast: A guide to the withdrawal agreement

Beth Oppenheim asks John Springford what is in the 585 page withdrawal agreement, and Charles Grant outlines what might happen next: will Theresa May and her withdrawal plan survive?

Charles Grant, Beth Oppenheim, John Springford

EU endorses Withdrawal Agreement

25 November 2018

29 November 2018

An effective UK trade policy and a customs union are compatible

If the UK enters into a customs union with the European Union it will be able to operate an effective trade policy, but the political focus would need to shift away from headline-grabbing, comprehensive free trade agreements.

Sam Lowe

6 December 2018

Brexit and services: How deep can the UK-EU relationship go?

Even if the UK entered into an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, leaving the single market would mean new restrictions on British services exports.

Sam Lowe

12 December 2018

Review: Plugging In the British: Completing the Circuit

Brexit has proved surprisingly difficult to implement, not just in economic affairs, where analysts always expected problems, but in many other areas, too.

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Camino Mortera-Martinez

May announces date for vote on Brexit deal

17 December 2018

18 December 2018

Brexit's impact on services

Trade in services has not received enough attention in the Brexit debate. But if Theresa May follows through on plans for the UK to leave the single market, UK services exports to the EU-27 will likely fall, in the case of financial services by more than half, and related jobs and tax revenues will suffer.

Sam Lowe

19 December 2018

How can Father Christmas deliver presents in a no deal Brexit scenario? Baby, it's cold outside (the EU)

In the run up to 25th December, there is one issue that has not received half the attention it deserves: what happens to Father Christmas in December 2019 in the event of a no deal Brexit?

Sam Lowe

7 January 2019

Food prices will go up, not down, after a no-deal Brexit – despite what Jacob Rees-Mogg says

Could Brexit mean cheaper food on our supermarket shelves? The idea has been propagated by politicians such as Jacob Rees-Mogg and business people like JD Wetherspoon’s owner Tim Martin, who promised lower prices in his “Beermat Manifesto”.

Sam Lowe

8 January 2019

Brexit negotiations in the field of defence: Lessons learnt and moving forward

It is clearly in Britain and the European Union’s mutual interest to continue working closely together on defence after Brexit.

Sophia Besch

14 January 2019

In search of lost Brexit: How the UK repeatedly weakened its own negotiating position

In 2018 the British were obsessed with Brexit, but the rest of the EU had much else to worry about. Although the migration crisis abated, EU governments could not agree on how to handle irregular immigration.

Charles Grant

16 January 2019

After the meaningful vote: What are Theresa May's options?

Theresa May can only win a parliamentary majority for her withdrawal agreement by agreeing to negotiate a softer relationship with the EU.

Sam Lowe, John Springford

17 January 2019

¿Cuáles son las opciones de Theresa May?

La única manera que tiene Theresa May de obtener una mayoría parlamentaria a favor de su acuerdo de retirada es estar dispuesta a negociar una relación más blanda con la UE.

Sam Lowe, John Springford

23 January 2019

Divided Britain will be weaker, poorer after looming Brexit

With the March 29 deadline for Britain's leaving the European Union fast approaching, it is still uncertain whether the exit will be a hard or a soft one. The Asahi Shimbun interviewed Charles Grant, the head of a British think-tank, to ascertain what can be expected from the Brexit as well as the possible economic impact and other effects.

Charles Grant

27 January 2019

Brexit: £17bn already ripped out of UK public purse due to decision to quit EU, research shows

Exclusive: The think-tank study indicates GDP would be 2.3 per cent higher had the UK voted to remain in the EU.

John Springford

The cost of Brexit to September 2018

The UK economy is 2.3 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union.

John Springford

28 January 2019

'Doppelgänger UK' shows Britain's economy is 2.3% smaller because of Brexit

Britain voted to leave the European Union over two years ago and as of 29 March this year, it will sever ties for good. While Brexit hasn’t technically happened yet, it has caused the economy to be 2.3% smaller than if Brits voted to remain in the EU.
That’s...

John Springford

El 'brexit' y las reglas de la improvisación

La falta de guion, o de Constitución escrita, ha desembocado en una lucha encarnizada entre el Gobierno de May y la Cámara de los Comunes por hacerse con el control del proceso.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

1 February 2019

The other May problem

Many officials believe we will need – and could easily get – an extension to the March 29 deadline for Brexit. But, with European elections looming in May, this may prove far trickier than we imagine.

Sam Lowe

6 February 2019

Can the UK extend the Brexit deadline?

It is becoming increasingly likely that the UK will have to request extension of the Article 50 deadline. But a longer extension might mean that the UK would have to hold European Parliament elections.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

7 February 2019

Forget new trade deals – Britain’s struggling to keep the ones it has

Liam Fox said up to 40 would be ready one second after Brexit. Well, they won’t, and the government must be honest about it.

Sam Lowe

May loses meaningful vote

15 February 2019

4 March 2019

CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

Beth Oppenheim asks Charles Grant to weigh up the possible Brexit scenarios: will Theresa May's deal make it through parliament, or will the UK end up with no deal, a general election, or a referendum?

Charles Grant, Beth Oppenheim

12 March 2019

Der verklärte Austritt

Theresa May steht vor einem politischen Scherbenhaufen. Der Brexit-Deal, den die britische Premierministerin nach vielen Monaten mit der EU ausgehandelt hat, wird im Parlament, wenn überhaupt, nur eine erzwungene Mehrheit finden. Verschoben wird der EU-Austritt sowieso – auf Mai, auf Juni oder vielleicht auf den Sankt-Nimmerleins-Tag.

Christian Odendahl

13 March 2019

Europe without the UK: Liberated or diminished?

In 2016 the CER made ten predictions about the effect of Brexit on future EU policy. How do they stand up now, on the eve of the UK’s departure?

Sophia Besch, Ian Bond, Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Sam Lowe

14 March 2019

Three reasons the Irish backstop is actually a good thing

The Westminster debate on the Irish backstop is deeply divisive. This protocol would see Northern Ireland remain de facto in the single market for goods, and the whole UK in a customs union, in the event that another solution is not found.

Sam Lowe

Brytyjczycy chcą opóźnić brexit. "Rząd traci kontrolę nad tym procesem"

Wciąż nie ma pewności, kiedy i w jaki sposób Wielka Brytania opuści Unię Europejską. Głosowania w Izbie Gmin niczego nie zmieniły. – Brexit bez umowy wciąż wchodzi w grę – przyznaje ekspertka Centre European for Reform.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

17 March 2019

No deal, no border

In the event of no deal Brexit, we now know the UK’s plan for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland: pretend it doesn’t exist.

Sam Lowe

22 March 2019

Dreaming of life after Brexit

The British public is growing tired of Brexit. But assuming something that looks like the withdrawal agreement is signed off, what comes next?

Sam Lowe

Brexit day I

May loses 2nd meaningful vote

29 March 2019

30 March 2019

The cost of Brexit to December 2018: Towards relative decline?

The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would be if Britain had voted to remain in the European Union. The knock-on hit to the public finances is £19 billion – or £145 million a week.

John Springford

The reality of Britain's role in the global trading system after Brexit remains deeply uncertain

Continuity agreements are in place with a small number of countries but replicating the arrangements that Britain currently benefits from will be the overriding priority throughout the transition period - if there is one - and beyond.

Sam Lowe

Indicative votes - no majority for any proposals

1 April 2019

Remainers, take note: Much of Europe just wants to excise the British cancer

The mood in Brussels is pessimistic. Most of those closely involved in the Brexit talks think the likeliest outcome is for the UK to leave without a deal.

Charles Grant

4 April 2019

No-deal Brexit would not be the end of the world – just very, very, very bad

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, some have convinced themselves that exiting the EU without an agreement – “no deal” – is a good idea. It is not.

Sam Lowe

May asks for extension to 30 June 2019

5 April 2019

At emergency EU summit, Brexit extension agreed until 31 October 2019

10 April 2019

11 April 2019

Judy Asks: Is Brexit bad for Europe?

Yes – and that’s not just British hubris. True, Britain has always been an awkward member of the EU, pushing back against continental hopes for a more federalist Union.

Beth Oppenheim

12 April 2019

Not so fast! Westminster's (continuous) oversight of European affairs post-Brexit

The UK will not be able to make a clean break from the EU and its laws post-Brexit. Westminster should develop new scrutiny structures which would enable parliamentarians to better navigate yet unknown post-Brexit reality.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

9 May 2019

Representative Democracy in the EU: Not such a clean break: Westminster's continuous oversight of EU affairs post-Brexit

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska of the CER contributed a chapter titled 'Not such a clean break: Westminster's continuous oversight of EU affairs post-Brexit', see page 333, in Representative Democracy in the EU.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

13 May 2019

Why Europe's capital cities are pulling away from their countries – and what we can do about it

Europe’s capital cities are much more productive than smaller cities and towns: the average metropolitan worker produces about 50 per cent more output than workers elsewhere. The divide between capitals and everywhere else is growing, too.

Christian Odendahl, John Springford

14 May 2019

The Brussels view of Brexit

The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them, and they do not believe that Britain’s politicians are capable of getting their act together and resolving the problem.

Charles Grant

European elections

23 May 2019

May announces resignation

24 May 2019

29 May 2019

Northern Ireland and the backstop: Why 'alternative arrangements' aren't an alternative

Technical fixes for the Irish border will only work if created in conjunction with affected communities and businesses.

Sam Lowe

3 June 2019

The UK has much to fear from a US trade agreement

Any deal with Trump would likely stray into areas such as food safety and drug pricing — and the president would come back for more.

Sam Lowe

5 June 2019

CER podcast: What is a customs union?

Sophia Besch asks Sam Lowe to explain what a customs union is. Sam argues that a customs union is still compatible with an effective UK trade policy.

Sophia Besch, Sam Lowe

27 June 2019

Now is the worst time for 'global Britain'

Global trade integration has stalled since the financial crisis, and is unlikely to pick up steam any time soon. In that context, plans for ‘global Britain’ will do little to offset the costs of Brexit.

John Springford, Sam Lowe

18 July 2019

What's next for Europe's capital markets?

Without the UK, even integrated EU capital markets would be too small to meet the funding needs of European businesses. That is why global engagement, even at the cost of losing regulatory control, is critical.

Jonathan Faull, Simon Gleeson

19 July 2019

EU officials don't relish the idea of no deal – but they are prepared to play hardball

Brussels is gloomy about the prospect of Britain crashing out, but political realities could see a compromise emerge.

Charles Grant

22 July 2019

Boris Johnson and Brexit: What to expect

There are no compromises on the backstop acceptable to the EU or a Johnson-led government. A general election fought by the Conservatives on a no deal ticket is therefore very likely.

John Springford

Boris Johnson becomes new PM

24 July 2019

1 August 2019

No-deal Brexit means trouble for Brits living in the EU

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, Brits living in EU countries will face a number of hurdles to securing residence. And some will be worse off than others.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

What next for the EU's capital markets union?

Europe needs deep and liquid capital markets. The best way to ensure that is to open up to global capital markets, including London.

Jonathan Faull, Simon Gleeson

8 August 2019

No-deal Brexit spells trouble for British expats in Europe

If you’re heading over to the continent for your holidays (or there already) and find yourself wincing at the Brexit-weakened exchange rate as you cough up for your cerveza, please spare a thought for the 1.3 million Britons who live in the EU.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

9 August 2019

A no-deal Brexit is less inevitable than it looks

Boris Johnson says he won’t talk to the EU unless it agrees to scrap the Irish backstop.

Charles Grant

12 August 2019

A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable

A majority of MPs want to avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. But if Boris Johnson is determined to leave the EU without a deal, MPs will struggle to stop him.

Charles Grant

Proroguing of Parliament

28 August 2019

3 September 2019

How would negotiations after a no-deal Brexit play out?

After no deal, the EU would demand that the UK sign up to the provisions of the withdrawal agreement, but in exchange for an emergency deal that is far worse than the standstill transition.

John Springford

4 September 2019

Brytyjskiej tragifarsy ciąg dalszy

Tylko niepoprawny optymista może mieć nadzieję, że brexitowa saga dobiega końca. Nie pozostaje nam nic innego, jak uzbroić się w cierpliwość, czekając na kolejną odsłonę tego spektaklu.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

5 September 2019

Written evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee's inquiry on post-Brexit scrutiny of EU law and policy

Written evidence submitted by Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform,to theEuropean Scrutiny Committee’s inquiry on post-Brexit scrutiny of EU law and policy.
About the Centre for European ReformThe Centre for European Reform is independent think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening
...

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

11 September 2019

CER podcast: Negotiations after no-deal Brexit

John Springford deciphers what has been happening in Westminster over the past week, and talks to Beth Oppenheim about what this means for the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

Beth Oppenheim, John Springford

20 September 2019

Deal or no deal? Five questions on Boris Johnson's Brexit talks

The rough shape of a deal between the UK and the EU is emerging: Northern Ireland would follow EU rules in some areas but not others. Yet the two sides remain far apart.

Charles Grant

Supreme Court rules prorogation unlawful

24 September 2019

Johnson proposes alternative to the backstop

2 October 2019

16 October 2019

The cost of Brexit to June 2019

The UK economy is 2.9 per cent smaller than it would be if the UK had voted to remain in the European Union, according to our latest estimate of the cost of Brexit to the end of the second quarter of 2019.

John Springford

Johnson agrees new Withdrawal Agreement with EU

17 October 2019

Parliament votes for more time to scrutinise agreement

19 October 2019

23 October 2019

CER podcast: What next for Brexit?

Charles Grant and Beth Oppenheim discuss what will happen next with the Brexit process, as well as what the future UK-EU relationship could look like.

Charles Grant, Beth Oppenheim

EU agrees extensions to 31 January 2020

28 October 2019

UK general election called for 12 December 2019

29 October 2019

Brexit day II

31 October 2019

4 November 2019

Warum das Brexit-Theater weiter geht (sorry)

Die Neuwahl in Großbritannien wird Klarheit im Brexit-Drama bringen. Wirklich? Ein Wahlsieg für Boris Johnson ist keineswegs ausgemacht - und selbst wenn, das Ringen um den EU-Austritt wird weitergehen. Ein Selbstgespräch von Christian Odendahl.

Christian Odendahl

5 November 2019

What a Boris Johnson EU-UK free trade agreement means for business

Johnson's EU-UK free trade agreement would increase friction and costs of trading with the EU. Many businesses would find adapting to a new FTA just as troublesome as if the UK had crashed out without a deal.

Sam Lowe

12 November 2019

Sam Lowe: « l'accord Johnson sur le Brexit est proche d'un no deal »

Dans une interview aux « Echos », Sam Lowe, du Centre for European Reform, explique pourquoi les entreprises britanniques ont un gros travail de préparation au Brexit devant elles et comment le Brexit va impacter la population.

Sam Lowe

28 November 2019

Johnson's future Brexit plan would be almost as disruptive as no deal

A "super Canada plus" agreement would still present businesses with a cliff edge.

Sam Lowe

How economically damaging will Brexit be?

Forecasts of the long-term hit from Boris Johnson’s Brexit range from 2 to 7 per cent. There are several reasons to fear that that the costs will be on the higher side.

John Springford

How should the EU 'get Brexit done'?

The EU and the UK might have only 11 months to conclude negotiations on their future partnership. The EU would find it easier to achieve its objectives if its negotiating structures were similar to those for the Article 50 talks.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

16 December 2019

Conference report: Five challenges for Europe

A new CER report summarises its 2019 Ditchley Park conference, which brought together 50 leading economists to discuss 'Five challenges for Europe'.

John Springford, Christian Odendahl, Sam Lowe

15 January 2020

EU sticking to tried and tested approach to Brexit talks

Boris Johnson, fresh from a resounding election victory, is determined to avoid extending the post-Brexit transition period and agree a new partnership with the European Union by the end of the year.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

16 January 2020

Flexibility does not come for free

An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations.

Sam Lowe

22 January 2020

Brexit will undermine Johnson's plans for poorer regions

In September, Boris Johnson told cabinet colleagues that he was “basically a Brexity Hezza.”

John Springford

27 January 2020

Priorities for 'Global Britain'

While the British government talks a good game on free trade and openness, it has failed to articulate what it actually wants and why. This will need to change.

Sam Lowe

UK foreign and security policy after Brexit

Since the 19th century, Britain has seen alliances as temporary and interests as permanent. But Brexit will dissolve a partnership, while simultaneously harming the UK’s domestic and external security interests.

Ian Bond

Who needs the CER?

Regardless of Brexit, the CER will continue to devise policies to make the EU more effective and successful, and to improve the quality of Britain's relationship with it.

Charles Grant

29 January 2020

CER podcast: Brexit bulletin special

In this special Brexit episode of the CER podcast, Charles Grant explains why the CER is still needed after Brexit; Sam Lowe discusses the future of UK-EU trade; and Ian Bond explores the fate of UK foreign policy.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe, Ian Bond, Beth Oppenheim

30 January 2020

A Brexit trade deal can be done but new cliff-edges await, warns trade expert

The UK may be just hours away from walking through the EU’s exit door but when it comes to trade, the journey is only just about to start, according to Sam Lowe, one of Westminster’s leading trade experts.

Sam Lowe

Brexit day III

31 January 2020

4 February 2020

Keynote address by Commissioner Phil Hogan at the Centre for European Reform

Good evening ladies and gentlemen,
First of all let me thank CER for the invitation to speak here today, and let me commend you for the hugely important space you provide for reflection and debate.
We live in a time where balanced analysis has gone out of fashion in many constituencies. Polarised...

Phil Hogan

5 February 2020

EU trade chief: ‘Australia-style’ Brexit agreement means no deal

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could still end up without a trade agreement if he pursues an "Australia-style" deal with the EU because such a deal does not exist, European Commissioner for Trade Phil Hogan said.

How the EU can survive Brexit

There are tensions between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel – but unless France and Germany can work together the bloc will fragment.

Charles Grant

11 February 2020

British services have played second fiddle in the Brexit debate

In 2018, services accounted for 46 per cent of UK exports, or £297 billion. The EU received 40 per cent of British services exports, and was the origin of 48 per cent of British services imports, the highest proportion of any UK trading partner.

Sam Lowe

19 February 2020

Business needs a transition period with the EU

From the EU’s perspective, there is a political argument to be made that Brexit should be seen to hurt.

Sam Lowe

UK releases its negotiating objectives

27 February 2020

2 March 2020

The future EU-UK relationship and the (relative) case for optimism

Beyond the headline disagreements, both the EU and UK have similar expectations as to what a future free trade agreement can and cannot deliver.

Sam Lowe

Londyn liczy na podziały w Unii Europejskiej. Jak dotąd ta strategia się nie sprawdziła

Twierdzenie, że Unia Europejska przystępuje do negocjacji z Wielką Brytanią osłabiona, należy traktować z przymrużeniem oka.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska

Boris Johnson is clearly in no rush to do a big US trade deal, as proven by his tough red lines

For those of us who assumed the UK would rush head first into trade talks with the United States, myself included, the last few months have come as somewhat of a surprise.

Sam Lowe

4 March 2020

CER podcast: Are the Brexit negotiations doomed to fail?

The EU and the UK have now published their objectives outlining what they want a future EU-UK partnership to look like. There is much headline disagreement, but is there a landing zone in sight? Charles Grant and Sam Lowe discuss.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe

5 March 2020

The EU and UK can agree on the scope of a new trade deal, but the devil is in the detail

The EU and the UK have set out what they want their future partnership to look like and the horse trading has begun.

Sam Lowe

16 April 2020

Here's how the UK should work with EU to combat coronavirus and end the lockdown

As the coronavirus pandemic continues its rampage around Europe, neither the British government nor the EU plans to extend the transition period.

John Springford

20 April 2020

Why the UK should extend the transition period

The COVID-19 pandemic means the UK should request a transition extension as a matter of urgency. To do otherwise would be unnecessarily reckless.

Sam Lowe

22 April 2020

CER podcast: What does COVID-19 mean for the EU-UK trade talks?

Charles Grant and Sam Lowe discuss the impact COVID-19 has had on the EU-UK trade talks, and whether the pandemic will lead to the transition period being extended, taking into account the arguments for and against.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe

28 April 2020

Why Keir Starmer must revamp Labour's trade strategy

The world is facing a combination of US-China trade wars and new export restrictions on essential supplies thanks to Covid-19. Added to that the British government is in the process of Brexit.

Sam Lowe

14 May 2020

How to implement the Northern Ireland Protocol

The UK must face up to its responsibilities and work with the EU to ensure goods can move as freely as possible between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Sam Lowe

20 May 2020

Let's not pretend the UK isn't after a special trade deal. In fact, it's good that it is

Given the EU's most significant economic relationship is with the UK, a trade deal should be ambitious - but compromise is still needed.

Sam Lowe

21 May 2020

Three ways COVID-19 will cause economic divergence in Europe

Europe's economies will diverge further as a result of COVID-19, as the economic impact will be larger in Southern Europe. Fiscal transfers would help to restart the EU's 'convergence machine'.

Christian Odendahl, John Springford

The EU recovery fund is a historic step, almost

Frugal states may block needed transfers to the south but there is a way forward.

John Springford

9 June 2020

A Japan-UK trade deal is more important than ever. Here are the key opportunities and tensions

Negotiations with the Japanese may be nowhere near as controversial as with the USA, but don't assume they'll be a walk in the park.

Sam Lowe

UK rules out transition period extension

12 June 2020

EU-UK negotiations: No need to panic (yet)

A deal between the EU and UK remains possible. But neither side is likely to compromise on its current negotiating position until later in the year, when the cost of failure will become significantly more tangible.

Sam Lowe

17 June 2020

Don’t let UK-EU foreign policy co-operation be collateral damage of Brexit

Six months has passed since Brexit, but there has been no significant progress in the negotiations to define the future UK-EU relationship.

Luigi Scazzieri, Leonard Schuette

CER podcast: Can the EU and the UK strike a deal on their future relationship?

Following Monday’s meeting between Boris Johnson and the three Presidents of the EU, has a deal between the EU and UK become more or less likely? Charles Grant and Sam Lowe discuss.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe

Deadline for Brexit extension

30 June 2020

Legal deadline for signing off an extension

1 July 2020

16 July 2020

EU efforts to level the playing field are not risk-free

The EU believes other countries are taking advantage of its relative economic openness. However, unilateral action to level the playing field risks provoking retaliation and the EU will need to tread carefully.

Sam Lowe

28 July 2020

I'm optimistic about a Brexit deal – despite the gloomy outlook

Both Brussels and London have moved in talks, and both grasp the political advantages of even a minimal free trade agreement.

Charles Grant

4 August 2020

CPTPP — as easy as one, two, three?

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a trade agreement between 11 countries including Japan, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, is all the rage in Westminster.

Sam Lowe

18 August 2020

Five reasons why even a basic EU-UK trade deal is better than nothing

A deal would avoid tariffs, unlock supplementary benefits, allow for EU and UK customs co-operation, ensure the Northern Ireland protocol is implemented sustainably

Sam Lowe

7 September 2020

Brexit : «Un accord de libre-échange éviterait le chaos aux frontières»

Pour le chercheur Sam Lowe, le Royaume-Uni et l’Union européenne doivent s’éloigner de leurs positions initiales afin d’arriver à un compromis.

Sam Lowe

16 September 2020

'Brexit' y los rebeldes de Johnson: La vida sigue igual

El 'brexit' ha cambiado las reglas del tiempo y el espacio, de forma que las unidades de medida por las que nos regimos el resto de los mortales no parecen aplicarse a los políticos británicos.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

21 September 2020

Do you think the UK really cares about getting a US trade deal?

Despite a trade deal with the US being popular with many in the Conservative party, it does not appear to be a number one priority for Number 10.

Sam Lowe

22 September 2020

A Brexit deal may yet emerge from the current confusion

Despite the brouhaha over the Internal Market Bill, both the British government and the EU still want to clinch a deal, and that remains a plausible outcome.

Charles Grant

25 September 2020

A terrible border is reborn? Ireland and a no-deal Brexit

If the UK fails to reach a trade deal with the EU, and does not implement the special arrangements for Northern Ireland agreed in the Withdrawal Agreement, Ireland faces the prospect of a hard land border being reborn.

Daniel Keohane

29 September 2020

Brexit and external differentiation in foreign, security and defence policy

This paper examines the EU’s foreign, security and defence policy relations with third countries, and their relevance to the EU’s future co-operation with the UK in these areas.

Ian Bond

30 September 2020

A trade deal would give the City of London breathing space

The EU’s decisions on financial equivalence for the UK are formally separate from the trade deal under negotiation. But in reality, the two are linked.

John Springford

Legal action launched against UK over Brexit deal breach

1 October 2020

4 October 2020

Brexit: Der innerirische Grenze bleibt eine Knacknuss

Bricht Grossbritannien den Brexit-Vertrag, könnte dies dazu führen, dass Irland den EU-Binnenmarkt mit Grenzkontrollen schützen muss.

Daniel Keohane

9 October 2020

CER podcast: Brexit, the Internal Market Bill and the prospects for a deal

What impact does the controversial Internal Market Bill have on the UK and what is the likelihood of a UK-EU trade deal?

Charles Grant, Catherine Barnard

15 October 2020

Brexit and COVID-19 are a toxic mix

The second wave of COVID-19 is arriving just before the UK leaves the single market. The pandemic will make it harder for the economy to adjust to Brexit.

John Springford, Tomas Hirst

23 October 2020

A tale of batteries, Brexit and EU strategic autonomy

Recently leaked proposals suggest the EU wants to use the EU-UK trade deal to help on-shore an electric vehicle supply chain.

Sam Lowe

9 November 2020

Brexit and police and judicial co-operation: Too little, too late?

The EU and the UK will find an agreement on extradition and Europol. But both parties are further apart on data protection than it may seem. Data transfers will be a problem in the future relationship.

Camino Mortera-Martinez

Vote on UK-EU deal

23 November 2020

26 November 2020

Post-Brexit foreign, security and defence co-operation: We don't want to talk about it

The UK is wrong to reject an institutional foreign policy relationship with the EU, but the EU should improve its ineffective external security co-operation with third countries, including the UK.

Ian Bond

30 November 2020

Navigating accidental illegality

Next year many companies selling goods or services between the UK and EU will inadvertently break some rule or other. But the immediate consequences of their inevitable infractions remain uncertain.

Sam Lowe

Trade secrets: John Springford answers three questions

Will it actually make much difference whether the UK and EU reach a Brexit deal or not? A free trade agreement (FTA) is so disappointing compared with the single market that it’s tempting not to care.

John Springford

11 December 2020

Politico Playbook interview: Sam Lowe

The Centre for European Reform’s senior research fellow Sam Lowe made the (relative) case for optimism about the UK and EU’s ability to reach a deal all the way back in March.

Sam Lowe

Brexit and trade: Implications for Wales

In his evidence to our inquiry, Sam Lowe, Centre for European Reform, also emphasised the importance of a trade agreement with the EU, in particular for agriculture, as high tariffs would apply to beef, lamb and other areas if trading with the EU on WTO terms: We just have to be blunt about it.

Sam Lowe

UK and EU agree Free Trade Agreement

24 December 2020

27 December 2020

Brexit trade deal means ‘freedom’, but at a cost: The arguments will be far from over

The UK may have won the power to diverge from EU rules, but the new relationship will be one of constant renegotiation.

Sam Lowe

28 December 2020

Ten reflections on a sovereignty-first Brexit

The UK-EU trade deal prioritises sovereignty over economics. Politicians will soon be talking about how to improve the deal. Very little about the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU has been settled.

Charles Grant

30 December 2020

Sovereignty First : 10 points sur le Brexit

Un commentaire que j’ai régulièrement entendu au cours des négociations sur le Brexit est resté gravé dans ma mémoire.

Charles Grant

End of transition period

31 December 2020

The UK leaves the Customs Union

Border controls introduced

1 January 2021

12 January 2021

The EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement: A platform on which to build?

The new trade deal between the EU and the UK could be improved upon over time, but that is not a given. It could also crumble away.

Sam Lowe

The post-Brexit trials and tribulations of the touring musical troupe

The newly signed EU-UK trade and co-operation agreement (TCA) conditionally removes tariffs and quotas, but otherwise does little to minimise regulatory barriers to trade or facilitate trade in services.

Sam Lowe

13 January 2021

CER podcast: The future UK-EU relationship

Katherine Pye spoke to Charles Grant, David Lidington and Sam Lowe about what we can expect from the future UK-EU relationship.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe, Katherine Pye, David Lidington

22 January 2021

Ditchley conference report: COVID-19, the global economy and the return of power politics

At the CER's Ditchley economics conference, participants discussed the global role of the EU in the aftermath of the pandemic, with faltering trade and investment and growing strategic competition between the US and China.

John Springford, Christian Odendahl, Sam Lowe, Sophia Besch, Katherine Pye

2 February 2021

It takes two to tango: The EU and the UK need to work together to make the Northern Ireland protocol work

The European Commission’s aborted attempt to restrict vaccines moving from the EU to Northern Ireland risked undermining years of hard work.

Sam Lowe

22 February 2021

Keeping up appearances: What now for UK services trade?

Rather than obsessing about services exports, UK policy-makers should focus on investment and ensuring the UK remains an attractive destination for multinational services firms to operate out of.

Sam Lowe

5 March 2021

Brexit teething problems?

Boris Johnson has described the struggles facing British companies trading with the EU under the new post-Brexit arrangements as “teething problems”.

Sam Lowe

12 March 2021

The cost of Brexit, January 2021: The end of transition edition

The first of a new CER series provides estimates for the effect of Brexit on UK trade – both before and after the end of the transition period.

John Springford

Understanding trade in services

Trade in services is not well understood. Unlike trade in goods, where buyers and sellers physically transport objects across borders, it is possible to sell a service to a client on the other side of the world, unbeknownst to anyone else, without ever leaving the comfort of your living room.

Sam Lowe

23 March 2021

Brexit has already been a disaster for British trade

No one has much interest in talking about Brexit in the UK at the moment. The pandemic means that voters have more important things on their mind.

John Springford

29 March 2021

Why Europe should spend big like Biden

The scale of Biden’s spending plans means the US economy will recover much faster than Europe’s. Yet in many ways it is the European economy that is in greater need of stimulus.

Christian Odendahl, John Springford

Post-Brexit data transfers are not a done deal

Data transfers are essential for both trade and security co-operation. The EU and the UK should not let minor differences obscure the fact that they have more in common than divides them.

Sam Lowe, Camino Mortera-Martinez

13 April 2021

The cost of Brexit: February 2021

We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 5 per cent by February 2021. That is on top of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.

John Springford

EU Parliament ratifies Brexit trade deal

28 April 2021

7 May 2021

The US and the Northern Ireland Protocol: Time to walk the walk

The US wants the UK to diverge from EU food hygiene rules and to prioritise political and economic stability in Northern Ireland. But what if the UK can’t do both?

Sam Lowe

12 May 2021

The cost of Brexit: March 2021

We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in March 2021. That is on top of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.

John Springford

14 June 2021

The cost of Brexit: April 2021

We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in April 2021. That is on top of our previous finding of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.

John Springford

18 June 2021

Objection! Why the EU opposes the UK's plans for cross-Channel litigation

Brexit has made cross-border litigation harder. While bigger companies will cope, EU and UK citizens and small businesses will suffer.

Zach Meyers, Camino Mortera-Martinez

Five year anniversary of Brexit referendum

23 June 2021

Five years since the referendum: A short reflection, and some highlights of the CER's Brexit coverage

Five years have passed since the British voted to leave the EU. Since then the CER has published 174 papers on Brexit.

Charles Grant

The EU Settlement Scheme deadline for registration

30 June 2021

Brexit: So close, yet so far…

Despite current difficulties, the UK and the EU will, in the long run, forge closer economic and security ties, predicts Charles Grant.

Charles Grant

6 July 2021

Can the UK's new European diplomatic strategy work?

Since it left the EU, the UK has been vigorously trying to emphasise the purported benefits of Brexit. In foreign policy, this has meant trying to present itself as more agile and effective than the EU.

Luigi Scazzieri

9 July 2021

CER podcast: How well will the UK's European diplomatic strategy work?

Ian Bond speaks to Luigi Scazzieri and Georgina Wright about EU-UK diplomatic co-operation and the ways both parties can work together in foreign and security policy.

Ian Bond, Luigi Scazzieri, Georgina Wright

16 July 2021

Letters: Fait accompli

Julian King’s assessment of Michel Barnier’s role in the Brexit talks (“The Brexit illusions,” July) is fair minded.But perhaps he underplays Barnier’s nationality. The Frenchman was a key link in the Brussels-Paris axis that drove the EU to be hard on the British.

Charles Grant

21 July 2021

The cost of Brexit: May 2021

The Centre for European Reform estimates that leaving the single market and customs union has reduced UK trade in goods by £10 billion or 13.5 per cent in May 2021.

John Springford

5 August 2021

Medical devices and the limits of UK regulatory autonomy

Medical devices illustrate the limited scope for post-Brexit UK divergence from EU rules, and the trade-offs the UK must face.

Sam Lowe, Derek Hill

29 September 2021

Ask CER - Episode 1: EU integration, democratic backsliding & UK financial services regulation

You asked, we answered: introducing the first episode of our new ‘Ask CER’ podcast series.

Charles Grant, Zach Meyers, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Rosie Giorgi

13 October 2021

Opening Pandora's Box: What the EU-UK trade deal means for trade and conditionality

The EU-UK Trade and Co-operation Agreement includes world-leading sustainability commitments.

Sam Lowe

26 October 2021

EU-UK relations: There is no steady state

The current crisis over the Northern Ireland protocol will pass, but tensions between the EU and the UK are not going away.

Sam Lowe

29 October 2021

CER podcast: What's the state of UK-EU relations?

Charles Grant speaks to Sam Lowe about the state of UK-EU relations.

Charles Grant, Sam Lowe

15 November 2021

The three deaths of EU-UK data adequacy

European and British businesses can still freely transfer personal data between the EU and UK. This situation has spared both sides disruption – but is unlikely to last.

Zach Meyers, Camino Mortera-Martinez

29 November 2021

The cost of Brexit: September 2021

In September 2021, UK goods trade was 11.2 per cent, or £8.5 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.

John Springford

13 December 2021

Why EU-UK data flows have a dim future

After Brexit, the EU and the UK reached an uneasy truce to maintain the free flow of personal data between them.

Zach Meyers

The cost of Brexit: October 2021

In October 2021, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.

John Springford

20 December 2021

As Frost departs, will the ice melt across the Channel?

David Frost’s resignation as Brexit minister matters: he greatly influenced Boris Johnson’s Brexit policy. With Liz Truss replacing him, UK policy towards the EU may become less confrontational.

Charles Grant

25 December 2021

One year on, it’s clear that Brexit has failed on its advocates’ own terms

Now that the Brexit deal has been in force for a year, it’s worth looking at initial claims from the politicians who forced through an exit from the EU’s single market.

John Springford

Temporary customs arrangement ends

31 December 2021

Temporary easing on border controls end

1 January 2022

26 January 2022

Ask CER - Episode 3: Strategic autonomy, the EU's taxonomy and the French election

You asked, we answered: the third episode of our ‘Ask CER’ podcast series.

Luigi Scazzieri, Elisabetta Cornago, Charles Grant

10 March 2022

The cost of Brexit: December 2021

By December 2021, leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK goods trade by 14.9 per cent. And new analysis shows that UK exports have taken a larger hit than imports.

John Springford

9 June 2022

What can we know about the cost of Brexit so far?

The UK's GDP is 5.2 per cent smaller than a modelled ‘doppelgänger’ UK that did not leave the EU; investment is 13.7 per cent lower, and goods trade, 13.6 per cent lower. Most of those costs are down to Brexit.

John Springford

14 June 2022

CER podcast: Is Brexit to blame for Britain's economic woes?

In this week's CER podcast Rosie Giorgi spoke to economists John Springford and Thomas Sampson about how Brexit has impacted the UK economy.

John Springford, Thomas Sampson, Rosie Giorgi

16 June 2022

Letters: The Brexit effect

In Tom Clark’s excellent round-up of the economic effects of Brexit, he noted that exports to the EU “look almost unaffected on the headline numbers.” As ever with statistics, it depends on how you cut it.

John Springford

Britain needs to face up to the cost of Brexit

The UK debate about Brexit’s impact on the economy has ranged from non-existent to unserious. Labour is avoiding the subject, to try to regain lost voters in pro-Brexit constituencies, and the government immediately changes the subject to vaccines or free trade deals.

John Springford

17 June 2022

¿Qué sabemos hasta ahora del coste del Brexit?

En mayo de 2020, el periodista James Forsyth, que goza de buenos contactos, escribió en The Spectator que el gobierno británico se encontraba cómodo con la idea de abandonar la UE sin un acuerdo.

John Springford

27 June 2022

Four reasons why the UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol bill is a mistake

The UK promises to “fix” the Northern Ireland protocol with unilateral legislation. This will be a major step backwards in trying to resolve genuine practical problems under the protocol.

Anton Spisak

4 July 2022

Speech by Sir Keir Starmer at the CER's 24th birthday reception

Keir Starmer MP, Leader of the Labour Party, Labour’s 5-point plan to Make Brexit Work
Thank you.
It’s a real privilege to be here tonight.
I want to start by thanking everyone here at the Embassy.
Especially Adrian, for the immense contribution he has made as Ambassador to Britain.
Adrian has always been honest and constructive...

Keir Starmer

10 August 2022

CER podcast: The Tory leadership contest and what it means for Europe

Charles Grant and Isabel Hardman consider the UK Conservative party leadership contest.

Charles Grant, Isabel Hardman

8 September 2022

How to fix the Northern Ireland Protocol

Hilary Benn MP considers the stalemate between London and Brussels over the Northern Ireland Protocol and highlights key areas where both sides can achieve a compromise.

Hilary Benn

21 September 2022

CER podcast: Finding a solution to the Northern Ireland Protocol

Hilary Benn MP and Charles Grant discussed the standoff between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Charles Grant, Hilary Benn

29 September 2022

Can Truss reset relations with the EU?

Britain’s new prime minister has the chance to rebuild bridges to the European Union. But it is unclear whether she will seize the opportunity.

Charles Grant

Trussonomics has failed at the first hurdle

Are the UK’s institutions strong enough to stop the government’s wrong-headed fiscal policy?

John Springford

3 October 2022

CER podcast: What might Macron's European Political Community look like?

In this week's CER podcast Camino Mortera-Martinez spoke to Charles Grant about the European Political Community.

Charles Grant, Camino Mortera-Martinez

3 November 2022

CER podcast: Can Rishi Sunak reset the UK-EU relationship?

Peter Foster joins Charles Grant to consider the prospects for repairing UK-EU relations under new British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

Charles Grant, Peter Foster

28 November 2022

UK science and technology after Brexit: How to fix it

Brexit has hurt British science and slowed the deployment of new technology across its economy. Rejoining the single market may be politically unrealistic, but Britain can still limit the damage.

Zach Meyers, John Springford

Brexit is hurting UK innovation

German-style political stability and long-term science funding could help mitigate the damage, say Zach Meyers and John Springford.

Zach Meyers, John Springford

29 November 2022

Der Austritt hatte vorhersehbare okonomische Folgen

Die britische Wirtschaft geht auf Talfahrt, immer mehr Briten halten den Brexit für einen Fehler, und die Regierung erwägt offenbar eine Annäherung an die EU. Ein Gespräch mit dem Brexit-Experten John Springford vom Centre for European Reform.

John Springford

1 December 2022

The UK needs a chips strategy

London wants chip-makers in Britain to support innovation. But using national security laws to engineer that outcome is counterproductive. Instead, the UK needs a more sober post-Brexit tech policy.

Zach Meyers

21 December 2022

The cost of Brexit to June 2022

My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.

John Springford

Date the transition period could be extended to

31 December 2022

11 January 2023

CER podcast: The cost of Brexit

In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Helmi Pillai interviews John Springford about his most recent cost of Brexit analysis.

John Springford

17 January 2023

Early impacts of the post-Brexit immigration system on the UK labour market

The end of the free movement has led to a shortfall of around 330,000 workers in Britain. Most are in less-skilled sectors of the economy.

John Springford, Jonathan Portes

25 January 2023

CER podcast: Brexit and the labour market

In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Jonathan Portes and John Springford discuss their recent post-Brexit labour market analysis.

John Springford, Jonathan Portes

26 January 2023

Brexit isn't going away

It’s frustrating and boring, but economists must endlessly repeat themselves about Brexit. That’s because Brexiters continue to deny its obvious economic costs.

John Springford

Three years since the UK left the EU

31 January 2023

1 February 2023

25 years on, the CER is more necessary than ever

I am very proud to have played a role in founding the Centre for European Reform. The CER has done stimulating and important work for the benefit of Britain and Europe.

David Miliband

The CER at 25: Ahead of its times

Over 25 years, Charles Grant has often been asked “What are think-tanks for?” His answer has usually been: “Thinking long term.”

Heather Grabbe

The CER's mission is as vital as ever

Although we are celebrating the 25th anniversary of the Centre for European Reform’s move into its first offices, the idea of a think-tank devoted to developments in Europe and committed to building better links between the UK and other member-states was conceived somewhat earlier.

Nick Butler

9 February 2023

Ask CER - Episode 8: Inflation Reduction Act, Qatargate and Iran

You asked, we answered: the eighth episode of our 'Ask CER' podcast series.

Zach Meyers, Camino Mortera-Martinez, Helmi Pillai, Luigi Scazzieri

Rishi Sunak travelled to Belfast to discuss the Northern Ireland protocol

17 February 2023

Windsor framework breakthrough

27 February 2023

The Protocol deal is a win for Sunak – and the EU

Soon after Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British government demanded changes to the Protocol.

Charles Grant

Rishi Sunak traveled to Belfast to discuss the Windsor Framework

28 February 2023

1 March 2023

Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU?

The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. It has strengthened von der Leyen and Sunak. But the Retained EU Law bill promises trouble.

Charles Grant

10 March 2023

CER podcast: What does the Windsor Framework mean for EU-UK relations?

In this week’s episode of the CER podcast Charles Grant is joined by Catherine Barnard to discuss the recently agreed Windsor Framework.

Charles Grant, Catherine Barnard

30 March 2023

Will the Retained EU Law Bill undermine Sunak's Windsor deal?

In its current form the Retained EU Law Bill is incompatible with the Windsor Framework. Rishi Sunak should make big changes to the REUL bill or scrap it altogether.

Anton Spisak

3 April 2023

A British strategy for Europe?

After nearly seven years of acrimony, the UK and the EU are talking sweetly to each other. The Ukraine war reminded them how much they have in common.

Charles Grant

Where is Britain's growth plan?

The government will have to confront vested interests and raise investment to boost growth. A strategy founded on trade deals with far-off countries and deregulation won’t work.

John Springford

9 May 2023

Are the costs of Brexit big or small?

Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.

John Springford

6 September 2023

What approach should Labour take to the 2026 TCA review?

A Labour government will want to reshape relations with the EU. The 2026 review of the trade deal offers only limited scope for change – but that should not constrain Labour’s ambitions.

Anton Spisak

16 September 2023

Welcome to Doppelgänger Britain – a world without Brexit

The economist John Springford on how he modelled what the UK would look like had it voted Remain.

27 September 2023

A European strategy for Labour

Keir Starmer will find it hard to improve the Tory Brexit deal – which most EU leaders like. But if he is willing to offer something in return, they may give him a better deal.

Charles Grant

CER Podcast: A European strategy for Labour

Charles Grant and Neil Kinnock discuss a European strategy for Labour.

Charles Grant, Neil Kinnock

10 December 2023

Labour's European conundrum

If and when the Labour Party takes office, it will come under pressure to negotiate a much better Brexit deal than that bequeathed by Boris Johnson.

Charles Grant

25 January 2024

Brexit, four years on: Answers to two trade paradoxes

Since the UK left the EU in 2020, its goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come?

John Springford

Four years since the UK left the EU

31 January 2024

1 March 2024

A new equilibrium in Northern Ireland: Can it last?

The agreement between the British government and the Democratic Unionist Party addresses immediate challenges but falls short of resolving Northern Ireland’s Brexit conundrum.

Anton Spisak

8 March 2024

Why do Britain's goods and services exports appear to be holding up?

On the face of it, UK exports have been surprisingly robust after Brexit. Goods exports to the EU have tracked those to the rest of the world, despite new trade barriers being imposed on the former but not on the latter.

John Springford

11 March 2024

Weighed down by gravity: UK trade policy after Brexit

The post-Brexit vision of 'Global Britain' is slowly replaced by the reality that free trade agreements deliver marginal benefits, particularly for the UK’s service-oriented economy.

Aslak Berg

29 April 2024

Living next door to an elephant: Lessons for the UK from EFTA

After Brexit, the UK finds itself next door to a regional trade hegemon. Britain can draw useful lessons from the experience of the EFTA countries.

Aslak Berg

2 May 2024

Immigration can help Europe bridge the demographic deficit

The radical right is likely to make big gains in the European parliament elections next month, with the “great replacement’ theory — that liberal elites are promoting immigration from outside Europe to undermine ethnic and cultural homogeneity — becoming increasingly influential.

John Springford

9 May 2024

Europe must choose: Multiculturalism or stagnation?

An increasingly multi-ethnic society would safeguard Europe’s prosperity – or it can opt for nativism, labour shortages and higher taxes.

John Springford

28 May 2024

Delivering the goods: An EU trade agenda for the next UK government

The Labour Party’s red lines will restrict its ambitions for changing the EU-UK relationship, but if it forms a government it should push Brussels for concessions, particularly on trade in goods.

Aslak Berg

6 July 2024

Reino Unido-UE: hacia un alineamiento

El próximo gobierno británico necesita una estrategia coherente hacia la UE, que abarque desde el comercio y la regulación hasta la energía, la política exterior y la defensa.

Aslak Berg, Ian Bond, Zach Meyers, Luigi Scazzieri

8 July 2024

An open letter to Keir Starmer: Ten suggestions on how to foster better relations with Europe

In an open letter to Keir Starmer, Charles Grant offers ten suggestions on how the Labour government can improve the UK-EU relationship.

Charles Grant

18 July 2024

Where might UK-EU relations be under a Labour government?

The Labour government offers a chance for a new start for UK-EU relations. But the UK will have to both address the causes of Brexit and present a compelling offer.

John Peet

6 August 2024

Towards a UK-EU Security Pact

The UK wants to forge a ‘security pact’ with the EU. But too much ambition now risks failure. A gradual approach will be more successful.

Luigi Scazzieri

2 October 2024

Want a ‘reset’ with the EU, PM? Here’s how you could pull it off…

With Keir Starmer in Brussels to restore post-Brexit relationships with European leaders, Ian Bond suggests ‘low-key’ is the name of the game when it comes to influencing foreign policy.

Ian Bond

28 November 2024

CER Podcast: Unpacking Europe: Labour's plan for the EU

Charles Grant and Stella Creasy discuss Labour's plan for forging closer ties with the EU.

Charles Grant, Stella Creasy

10 December 2024

The gap between the 'Brexit reset' rhetoric and the reality

Rough-and-ready calculations based on the stated demands of the UK and EU suggest the reset might raise Britain’s GDP by 0.3-0.7 per cent.

John Springford

12 December 2024

The UK can ride Trump out on trade

The UK will probably face less trade disruption under Donald Trump than some fear – but will have fewer opportunities to improve ties with the US than some hope.

Aslak Berg

19 December 2024

Is the UK-EU reset worth pursuing?

Labour has taken a defensive position on Brexit since Keir Starmer first set out his red lines at the Centre for European Reform’s 24th birthday party in 2022.

John Springford

Five years since the UK left the EU

31 January 2025

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