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Another pro-Brussels think tank, the Centre for European Reform, takes a more hardheaded view. The economic boost only comes if Britain aligns its regulations with its neighbors and the EU lets it access its single market.
That deal is not on the table. Even piecemeal single-market access would mean making hefty payments to Brussels. “The more barriers to trade you want to remove the more you have to offer on alignment, money and movement (on immigration controls),” the CER wrote.

Paradox Frankrijk heeft een zwakke regering met een onzekere toekomst, en toch blijft het een dominante kracht in het EU‑beleid. Hoe valt die paradox te verklaren, vraagt Charles Grant van het Centre for European Reform. Handig: hij geeft zelf het antwoord.

A 2018 Whitehall study estimated that leaving the EU customs union was responsible for about 1 per cent of lost GDP, according to John Springford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. However, he cautioned that re-forming a customs union with the EU would not necessarily recoup all of those losses, given the lasting impact of Brexit on investment in critical industries such as carmaking. 

"The China shock is now macro-critical for Germany: the collapse in German exports to China since the peak already amounts to a hit of roughly 1 per cent of GDP," said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

The Centre for European Reform think-tank has suggested that the reset would raise GDP by only about 0.3 per cent in the long run.

Economists at the Centre for European Reform reckon that the government's reset package — if delivered in full — is worth somewhere between 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent of UK GDP over a decade.