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Further comment came from Armida van Rij, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a Brussels think tank, who warned: "Trump tends to lash out in foreign policy when he needs a distraction from domestic politics."

Volgens Charles Grant, de directeur van de in Londen gevestigde denktank Centre for European Reform, kun je inmiddels spreken van ‘de paradox van Franse macht’: Frankrijk heeft aan invloed ingeboet, maar het Franse denken is juist wijdverbreid.  
Hoe dat kan? „De wereld is veranderd”, legt Grant telefonisch uit. Oude zekerheden zijn verdwenen. Grilligheid is de norm geworden. „Kijk naar de coronacrisis, de Russische invasie van Oekraïne, de concurrentiestrijd met China. Economische veiligheid is voor overheden belangrijker geworden dan economische efficiëntie.”

“If it’s a sizeable revaluation, of course it will [move the needle],” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform and co-author of a paper that reportedly helped convince Merz of the need to change tack on China.“Most models would suggest that a 10 per cent real effective exchange rate change shifts real net exports by 1.5 per cent of GDP on average,” he said.

Or, as the Centre for European Reform puts it: “Some common debt will be unavoidable if Draghi’s suggested joint investments in innovation, defence and electricity grid connectors are to be realised.”

“The big difference is that the EU is much more protectionist now,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “It’s more French, partly because the British aren’t there to argue against it, but partly because the world has changed. Everyone’s concerned with economic security these days, more than free trade.” The result, he believes, will be a trade war with China.

“EU leaders face a second energy shock in four years; this time with higher public debt and borrowing costs,” said Elise Viadere, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.

"It is significant ⁠that a policy switch that had been boiling under the surface in Berlin for the last few weeks and months, is now official," said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. "And it is significant that the two most important EU member states clearly see eye to ​eye on how to deal with the second China shock."

If the regulation’s geographical scope ends up being too broad, “almost any country around the world can become a hub for repackaging Chinese equipment, changing a few nuts and bolts and then selling it in the European market as made in the EU,” warned Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.

Ekonomen John Springford vid tankesmedjan Centre for European Reform påpekar att Burnham inte är känd som någon särskilt EU-vänlig politiker. Hans regering har hittills framför allt fokuserat på inrikespolitiska reformer.Att han så starkt väljer att profilera sig i EU-frågan har enligt Springford flera förklaringar: bland annat är hans närmaste rådgivare starkt EU-vänliga samtidigt som bilden av utträdets negativa ekonomiska konsekvenser blivit allt mer tydlig.