Luigi Scazzieri
Luigi Scazzieri
Non-resident associate fellow
Areas of expertise
European security and defence, transatlantic relations, EU-UK relations and Italy's relationship with the EU
Twitter
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Will EU enlargement create new models for the EU-UK relationship?
15 April 2025
Enlargement is pushing the EU to think creatively about how to work more closely with candidate countries before accession. The consequences for EU-UK relations could be significant.
One step forward for Europe's defence
26 March 2025
In an effort to adjust to the new strategic reality, the EU is trying to make it easier for member-states to strengthen Europe’s defences. Success or failure depends on them.
How the UK and the EU can deepen defence co-operation
07 March 2025
The UK and the EU face daunting common security challenges. Linking Britain more closely to EU defence tools would strengthen Europe's security.
Towards an EU 'defence union'?
30 January 2025
The EU can play a substantial role in strengthening Europe's defences, in synergy with NATO and national efforts, if it adopts a pragmatic approach, sharply focused on military needs.
Can Europe navigate Trump 2?
08 November 2024
Donald Trump will be the next US president. Europe’s leaders need to accept this reality and protect European interests.
European common debt: Is defence different?
05 November 2024
European defence bonds could help strengthen Europe's defences, but they face significant obstacles.
The EU and Türkiye: A relationship adrift
21 October 2024
A plethora of disagreements haunt EU-Türkiye relations. Without a positive vision, things may only get worse.
A mere spectator? Europe and the imploding Middle East
09 October 2024
The conflict in the Middle East is expanding. Thus far, Europeans have played a minor role, but they might be able to help prevent the situation getting worse.
What a Harris presidency would mean for Europe
30 September 2024
A Harris presidency would signal continuity for transatlantic relations. But Europeans should not think they can turn back the clock to the pre-Trump era.
Towards a UK-EU Security Pact
06 August 2024
The UK wants to forge a ‘security pact’ with the EU. But too much ambition now risks failure. A gradual approach will be more successful.
NATO at 75: Strong but brittle?
15 July 2024
NATO’s 75th anniversary summit sought to project unity and strength, but large challenges simmer under the surface.
Navigating the storm? The EU, the UK and Trump 2.0
10 July 2024
A second Trump presidency would lead to extensive transatlantic turbulence. The UK and its European partners would need to be pragmatic in finding new ways of working together.
EU-UK relations: Towards a post-election agenda
01 July 2024
Britain’s next government needs a coherent strategy towards the EU, ranging from trade and regulation to energy, foreign policy and defence.
What will the EU election results mean for Europe?
11 June 2024
The populist right and far right will not dominate the new European Parliament. But the election results will influence the EU’s agenda and legislation over the next five years.
The new migration and asylum pact: Smoke and mirrors?
23 May 2024
The EU’s new asylum rules are unlikely to make the current system more humane and effective, or less controversial. The EU should rethink its approach to co-operation with third countries.
Working hand in hand? EU-UK co-operation in supporting Ukraine
20 May 2024
The EU and the UK have worked together closely to support Ukraine. Now they need to sustain support and strengthen their co-operation to be ready for possible US disengagement.
The European Parliament elections: A sharp right turn?
30 April 2024
Right-wing forces are set to make sizeable gains in the European Parliament elections. That will tilt the Parliament right on many issues and could give these parties momentum nationally.
The EU's defence ambitions are for the long term
13 March 2024
The Commission’s new proposals to strengthen Europe’s defence industry will be hamstrung by limited funding and member-states' doubts. But in the long term, the EU’s role in defence will probably grow.
Two years (and ten years) of war in Europe: Hard times for Ukraine
07 March 2024
After a difficult year for Ukraine, Putin may be encouraged to think he can win the war. But this is a fight neither Ukraine nor Europe can afford to lose.
Europe should look to the West Bank
06 February 2024
The misery of the Gaza war threatens to spill over into a broader conflict. If they want to avoid escalation and advance peace, Europeans need a serious plan for the West Bank.
Can European defence take off?
19 January 2024
The EU’s defence industrial policies will help determine whether Europeans can increase their ability to provide support to Ukraine, persuading Russia that its war is unwinnable.
Europe and the Gaza conflict
20 October 2023
Europe is divided on the Israel-Hamas conflict and has few good options to deal with it. But Europeans won’t be able to escape the conflict’s consequences.
Can the European Political Community survive?
17 October 2023
The European Political Community (EPC) summit in Granada may have been labelled a disappointment. But it is too early to write off the EPC.
Europe and a new Middle East
05 October 2023
A new Middle East may be emerging as tensions thaw and US influence wanes. Europe needs different policies to deal with a changing region.
Can Meloni's balancing act continue?
21 August 2023
Giorgia Meloni has blended Atlanticism and pragmatism towards the EU with right-wing populism on immigration, cultural issues and green policy.
NATO after Vilnius
03 July 2023
If NATO allies want to support Kyiv effectively and reinforce deterrence, they need to build up their industrial capacity and strengthen NATO’s European pillar.
EU-UK co-operation in defence capabilities after the war in Ukraine
09 June 2023
Despite warming EU-UK relations, defence co-operation remains thin and the EU’s deepening involvement in defence industrial policy means there is a growing gap in developing military capabilities.
Erdoğan's victory and the West
31 May 2023
Erdoğan’s re-election as Turkish president means that Ankara’s relations with its Western allies will remain turbulent. The West should expect a bumpy ride.
Can the European Political Community be a bridge between the UK and the EU?
28 April 2023
The European Political Community (EPC) could promote closer EU-UK co-operation. But the EPC's ability to do so will depend on its future evolution, which only partly hinges on UK-EU relations.
The EU and Turkey after the elections: The start of a new chapter?
29 March 2023
Whatever the outcome of the elections, Turkey and the EU will have shared challenges to address. But the result will define the likely balance between co-operation and confrontation for years.
A year of war in Europe: The balance sheet
22 February 2023
Since Russia attacked Ukraine, the CER has tracked the war’s effect on the protagonists, the EU, NATO and other powers. What conclusions can be drawn from the past year?
Europe and the Iran nuclear threat
06 February 2023
Efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have stalled and Tehran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons. Europe needs a new strategy.
Is European defence missing its moment?
16 January 2023
European defence budgets are increasing in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine. But if member-states don’t co-ordinate their spending better, fragmentation will persist and Europe’s defence industry could weaken.
Europe's migration problems are back
24 November 2022
The migration spat between France and Italy is a reminder that EU migration politics continue to be toxic, and that Europe’s common migration and asylum system remains incomplete.
Can EU enlargement gain momentum?
03 November 2022
The war in Ukraine reinvigorated EU enlargement, but recent momentum will be hard to maintain. The Union should increase support for candidates and further develop ways to integrate them before membership.
Europe should not forget the challenges to its south
22 September 2022
Europeans are rightly focusing on the war in Ukraine, but they should not think they can insulate themselves from what happens to their south.
What Giorgia Meloni would mean for Europe
16 September 2022
A government led by Giorgia Meloni would lead to some turbulence between Rome and Brussels – particularly on migration and economic policy. But Italy’s EU and foreign policies – including towards Russia – are unlikely to change much.
The EU, NATO and European security in a time of war
05 August 2022
Russia is not the only threat to European security. NATO remains essential for deterrence and defence, but the EU must also play a bigger security role.
Beyond European strategic autonomy?
03 August 2022
European strategic autonomy in security and defence will remain a controversial subject, but leaving aside labels, the Ukraine war is giving fresh momentum to Europeans’ defence efforts.
Italy after Draghi
19 July 2022
Mario Draghi’s tenure as Italian prime minister could be ending. Draghi would leave Italy stronger than he found it, but it will be up to his successors not to squander his legacy.
Will the EU rethink enlargement?
30 May 2022
Ukraine’s EU membership application has revived the debates about enlargement and a multi-tier Europe. Reforming the enlargement process to make it more gradual could be the best place to start.
Turbulence ahead for Turkey and the West
20 May 2022
Turkey's objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO have put the spotlight on Ankara’s role in the alliance. Even if a compromise is found, Turkey’s relations with Europe and the US will remain fractious.
Russia's assault on Ukraine and European security
30 March 2022
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will require NATO to greatly strengthen deterrence. Europeans will have to shoulder a larger share of the security burden, acting through both NATO and the EU.
Does the Strategic Compass herald a stronger EU in security and defence?
25 March 2022
The EU Strategic Compass sets out a realistic vision for EU security policy. It is now up to member-states to live up to their promises.
Russia's war on Ukraine: There is worse to come (for the West as well)
17 March 2022
The EU has reacted robustly to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But it must now mitigate the economic, social and political consequences, which will hit ordinary citizens and challenge Western cohesion.
Could EU-endorsed 'coalitions of the willing' strengthen EU security policy?
09 February 2022
The EU could be a more effective security provider if it mandated operations by coalitions of willing member-states, but that requires consensus.
Transatlantic turmoil is not over
24 January 2022
The US might be ‘back’, but sources of friction with Europe persist. And in 2022, Europeans should expect an inward-looking America as Biden focuses on domestic issues prior to the mid-term elections.
What Italy's Presidential election means for Europe
18 January 2022
The election of a new Italian president could threaten the survival of Mario Draghi’s government of national unity, and will mark the beginning of the 2023 general election campaign.
Reviving European policy towards the Western Balkans
15 December 2021
The EU sought to stabilise the Western Balkans through enlargement, but this process has now stalled.
Lukashenka is the problem, not the migrants
12 November 2021
The crisis on the Belarusian-Polish border is artificially manufactured. Europe needs to focus on the cause of the problem – Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s desire to strike back at the EU.
Europe and the transition to a post-American Middle East
05 November 2021
The US's preoccupation with China is reducing Washington's focus on the Middle East, while Russian and Chinese influence is growing. Europeans need to step up their efforts to stabilise the region.
After Afghanistan and AUKUS: What next for European defence?
07 October 2021
The US retreat from Afghanistan and the AUKUS deal have strengthened calls for greater ‘European strategic autonomy’.
You can leave Afghanistan, but will Afghanistan leave you?
19 August 2021
The Taliban’s victory is a disaster for Western policy, but it is not the end of the story. The West must now work hard to mitigate the fallout.
Europe can't ignore Libya
02 August 2021
Libya has a new unity government, but the country could easily slip back into conflict. In order to avoid this happening, Europeans should increase their stabilisation efforts.
A new migration crisis may be brewing
27 July 2021
Member-states have made some progress towards a common asylum system. But large divisions endure and the EU's efforts to increase co-operation with third countries will continue to face difficulties.
Bridging the Channel: How Europe and the UK can work together in foreign policy
30 June 2021
The December 2020 EU-UK agreement does not include foreign policy. EU states and the UK will have to find new ways of working together.
From partners to rivals? The future of EU-Turkey relations
23 June 2021
EU-Turkey tensions have cooled since last summer. Relations are unlikely to improve as long as Ankara's domestic and foreign policies continue to cause friction with many member-states.
EU foreign, security and defence policy co-operation with neighbours: Mapping diversity
10 May 2021
The EU and its neighbours co-operate in foreign policy in different ways. It would benefit by working more closely with its partners.
Containing NATO's Mediterranean crisis
08 March 2021
NATO’s southern neighbourhood in the Middle East and North Africa has become a hotbed of instability, and Turkey’s unilateral actions have fuelled tensions that are undermining the alliance’s cohesion.
Draghi's challenge
12 February 2021
Mario Draghi will be the next Italian prime minister. He is Italy’s best hope to steer the country through its worst crisis since World War II. But he faces daunting challenges, especially if the COVID pandemic does not wane quickly.
Foreign policy co-operation: Brexit's missing link
01 February 2021
The UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement does not include foreign policy. The UK and its European partners will continue working together bilaterally and in small groups.
A new transatlantic consensus on Iran
19 January 2021
A new Iran nuclear crisis is brewing. Europeans should seize the opportunity to re-establish a common position with the US and try to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement that Donald Trump abandoned.
European strategic autonomy and a new transatlantic bargain
11 December 2020
The distinction between a European path and a transatlantic path in European defence is misguided. Europeans should focus on improving their capabilities and developing a common strategic outlook.
Turkey rising?
30 November 2020
Turkey’s foreign policy has become increasingly militarised and assertive, driven by a mix of ambition, security concerns and domestic politics. However, despite its recent successes, Ankara is at risk of overreaching.
President Biden: Don't expect miracles, Europe
13 November 2020
Transatlantic relations will improve under Biden, but Europe will not be his number one priority. Europeans must strengthen their capacity to protect their own interests.
Americans choose their president: Europe must live with the consequences
02 November 2020
The US election could spell the end of the transatlantic partnership or give it a new lease of life. But even if Biden prevails, Europeans should not use his victory as an excuse to hit the snooze button.
The Commission's 'new migration pact': Handle with care
26 October 2020
The European Commission's new migration plans are more likely to succeed than previous attempts at reforming the system.
Can the EU's Strategic Compass steer European defence?
30 September 2020
The EU’s planned ‘Strategic Compass’ will define its security and defence ambitions. Though not a panacea, it could give European defence more coherence and should help foster a common strategic outlook among member-states.
Can the EU and Turkey avoid more confrontation?
10 August 2020
Tensions between Europe and Turkey are rising. The EU should forge a firm common stance with London and Washington, while keeping the door open for better relations.
What future for a 'geopolitical' Europe?
27 July 2020
Ursula von der Leyen wants her Commission to be ‘geopolitical’. COVID-19 is likely to make this harder, while also underlining its importance.
Turkey and the UK: New best friends?
24 July 2020
Turkey and the UK want to maintain a close relationship after the Brexit transition ends. But concluding a trade deal will not be easy, and relations could sour if tensions increase between Turkey and the EU or US.
Rethinking the EU's approach towards its southern neighbours
10 July 2020
COVID-19 will exacerbate the failures of EU policy towards its southern neighbours. Europe needs to rethink its approach, taking on more responsibility for security and making its neighbours a more ambitious offer.
Gas heats up the eastern Mediterranean
23 April 2020
Disagreements over who gets to exploit gas in the eastern Mediterranean have raised tensions in the region, led to EU sanctions on Turkey, and made resolving the Libyan conflict more difficult. Much is now riding on Ankara’s next moves.
The EU's new Libya operation is flawed
08 April 2020
The EU’s new Libya operation follows years of criticism that the Union has not done enough to end the conflict.
Trouble for the EU is brewing in coronavirus-hit Italy
02 April 2020
The COVID-19 crisis facing Italy may be new and unprecedented, but for many Italians the European Union’s reaction has been no surprise.
Turkey and the EU: Preserving transactional co-operation
26 March 2020
Despite growing tensions with Turkey on many issues, it is in the EU’s interest to renew co-operation on migration with Ankara. The Union should also try to shift the relationship in a less confrontational direction.
CER podcast: How to contain the coronavirus fall-out
11 March 2020
The new coronavirus has been spreading rapidly in Europe, and Italy has imposed strict constraints on movement to contain the outbreak there.
The EU and US must work together to end the siege of Tripoli
30 January 2020
The conflict in Libya is spiralling out of control despite the recent Berlin conference. Europeans need to work with the US to pressure regional powers to stop fuelling fighting.
CER podcast: Where is Turkey going?
04 December 2019
After Turkey’s recent offensive in northern Syria, Ankara’s relationships with the EU and US have been badly strained.
Towards a European Security Council?
27 November 2019
France and Germany have discussed forming a ‘European Security Council’ to strengthen European foreign policy and co-ordinate closely with the UK after Brexit. While it could make Europe stronger, it may also prove divisive.
One step closer to a rupture: Europe, the US and Turkey
17 October 2019
Turkey’s relations with the EU and US are in freefall after its new offensive in northern Syria. The EU should do what it can to avoid a broader rupture between Ankara and the West.
Can Josep Borrell get EU foreign policy off the ground?
30 September 2019
The EU’s new foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, may struggle to co-ordinate the Union’s external activities in the face of rival European commissioners and unruly member-states.
The EU should seize the chance to stop Italy's eurosceptic drift
05 September 2019
Italy’s new coalition government between the Five Star Movement and the Democratic Party is good news for Europe. But a resurgence of the League is likely unless Europe helps Italy in a visible manner.
The EU, the US and the Middle East Peace Process: Two-state solution – or dissolution?
11 July 2019
Jared Kushner's economic plan for the Palestinians will erode the two-state solution. By easing tensions, the EU can preserve it. But Europe can no longer afford to be passive.
A troubled partnership: The US and Europe in the Middle East
10 July 2019
Trump's policies towards the Middle East have led to a serious transatlantic rift, particularly over Iran. To secure its interests in the region, Europe will need to shake off its passivity.
Taking a hard line with Italy may do the EU more harm than good
10 June 2019
The European Parliament elections destabilised Italy’s coalition government, strengthening the League. The EU should avoid giving populists an excuse to lash out.
The EU can keep the Iran nuclear deal alive
16 May 2019
Iran’s announcement that it will no longer comply with parts of the international nuclear agreement has put the EU in a difficult position. But modest moves by Europe could increase the chances that the core of the deal will survive.
CER podcast: European Parliament elections special
20 May 2019
Beth Oppenheim talks to the CER's experts about the upcoming European Parliament elections.
Tearing at Europe's core: Why France and Italy are at loggerheads
12 February 2019
Tensions between Italy and France are rising due to domestic politics in both countries, personal acrimony between Salvini, Di Maio and Macron, and policy differences.
Trump's Iran policy leaves the EU few options
11 December 2018
Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions has placed the Iran nuclear agreement on life support and further destabilised the region. Unwilling to seriously support the deal, Europeans will have to rely on diplomacy to limit the damage.
Premature elections won't stabilise Libya
10 October 2018
The push for elections in Libya risks deepening the country’s divisions. Europe should agree on a common position, and work towards a settlement acceptable to key Libyan and regional players.
CER podcast: Instability in Libya and a divided EU
10 October 2018
Sophia Besch asks Luigi Scazzieri about the latest escalation of the conflict in Libya, and they discuss the EU's fragmented policy.
Italy and the EU: The logic of confrontation
28 September 2018
Four months after being sworn in, Italy’s League-Five Star coalition government has set a more confrontational tone in its relations with the European Union.
Europe should keep Turkey close
27 July 2018
EU-Turkey relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years, and even maintaining transactional co-operation could become increasingly difficult. The challenge for Europe is how to prevent relations from souring further.
Merkel's migration deal: Less than the sum of its parts
09 July 2018
The June European Council has not solved the EU’s migration problems.
Why Italy will confront the EU, but stay in the euro
04 June 2018
The new Italian government is likely to initially try to score some easy victories. The EU should give it some leeway, and avoid inflaming public opinion in Italy.
To manage migration, the EU needs to rethink its neighbourhood policy
17 May 2018
The EU’s effort to outsource control of its borders has come at a high cost, and is likely to become unsustainable. To manage migration, the EU needs to revamp its southern neighbourhood policy.
EU has little choice but to try to keep the Iran deal alive
11 May 2018
The EU is unlikely to risk a major confrontation with the US over the Iran deal. But even small steps can help buy time and preserve the deal.
What the Italian election means for the EU
18 April 2018
The Italian election complicates the EU’s reform agenda. If the EU engages with the Five Star Movement, Rome could yet play a constructive role.
Italy after the election: From partner to spoiler?
30 January 2018
Italy's 4th March election is likely to be less consequential than many assume. But it will highlight the urgency of reforming the eurozone and better managing migration.
Trump and the Iran deal: Not yet the nuclear option?
13 December 2017
Trump has placed the international nuclear agreement with Iran in jeopardy. The EU should try to save the deal, but be prepared in case it fails.
How the EU and third countries can manage migration
01 November 2017
The EU's response to migrants crossing the Mediterranean is shifting from internal reforms to deals with countries in Africa and Asia. This approach has potential pitfalls and upsides.
Turkey and the EU: No end to the drift
16 October 2017
Turkey's slide away from the West encompasses both values and foreign policy. But if the EU ended the accession negotiations without an alternative in place, it would only worsen the problem.
How the West can contain - and end - the conflict in Ukraine
15 September 2017
New US sanctions on Russia prevent a backroom Trump-Putin deal on Ukraine, but they also threaten Western unity. They should prompt the EU to re-invigorate the Minsk agreement.
Trump, Europe and the Middle East peace process: A path out of the quicksand
23 June 2017
The Middle East peace process is frozen. Rather than attempting to reach an all-or-nothing final agreement, Europe and the US should pursue an incremental approach.
The EU and Libya: Realism or irrelevance
03 February 2017
Europe cannot view Libya only through the lens of migration. It needs to stabilise the country, brokering a compromise between different factions.