Research

“It’s a shocking moment,” Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said of the party’s meteoric rise. “It’s the reflection of the electorate that feels like it has tried everything else now turning to the solution that is more radical and new.” “It’s this huge contrast with Draghi that makes it very hard for people to understand,” Scazzieri added, saying that it reflects “a country that really feels that things are going in the wrong direction” after two decades of economic stagnation.

The three parties also want to revise Italy’s €200 billion EU Covid recovery plan - in agreement with the EU - to put more resources into energy diversification and help consumers with higher energy prices. "This programme would be expensive to implement, and a loose fiscal policy would lead to higher borrowing costs for Italy and perhaps a financial crisis," says Luigi Scazzieri, who is a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER)."Meloni is aware of the risks of appearing spendthrift, and is trying to stress that she is fiscally responsible."

For Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, Vučić is an opportunist above all else.“There is a cynical calculation going on about how he can extract the maximum benefit from both sides. He is a Serb nationalist and it plays well with his voters if he can also be shown to be standing up for ethnic Serbs in Bosnia. Does he want to annex the Republika Srpska? I suspect not because that would actually bring down the wrath of the EU on his head in a way that would not suit his interests. But he’ll be quite happy to cause a certain amount of trouble.”

"A right-wing government, with Brothers of Italy at its core, would reduce Italy's influence in the EU and make Italy-EU relations more turbulent. But Italy would not become a new Poland or Hungary," Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, wrote in a recent note.

“In part it's about her policy platform, her socially conservative views, her economic views — which are also quite social in a way in terms of, for example, raising people's pensions or benefits,” said analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform.“But it's also in large part due to her own personal appeal. And I would single out here, for example, her way of talking, which is very down to earth. It’s very effective in connecting with ordinary voters,” Scazzieri added. “Finally, she also benefits from not having been anywhere near government for the past 10 years, and so she can credibly say that she represents something new.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said French officials had told him that UK-France relations were very poor but that British participation in the Prague summit would change things. “Macron thinks this is really important for discussing strategic issues and he wants the British to take part,” said Grant. “The French say that the Brits can help to shape how the EPC emerges.”