Research & Press

EU rejects claim Genoa bridge collapse linked to its spending rules

16 August 2018
The Guardian
Luigi Scazzieri, a specialist in EU-Italy relations at the Centre for European Reform, said Salvini’s remarks were clearly “trying to deflect all kinds of responsibility”, but may strike a chord with Italian voters weary of austerity. “The commission is approaching this as a technicality. Salvini is making a broader political point, which will resonate much more with Italians,” Scazzieri said.

Brexit: EU leaders consider 'Jersey model'

10 August 2018
Jersey Evening Post
Supporters of the Jersey model, which was proposed by the Centre for European Reform think-tank earlier this year, say that it would mean border checks would not need to be applied to the land border with Ireland – a key Brexit issue.

Vice News: Theresa May heads to France as Brexit talks go south

09 August 2018
“Michel Barnier has had a very tough line and he's taking his directions from France and Germany, and Theresa May's plan is to try and undercut the European Commission,” says John Springford, a Brexit expert at the Centre of European Reform.

European leaders mulling Jersey compromise, defying Michel Barnier's line

09 August 2018
The Telegraph
European leaders would not want Britain to benefit overall by leaving their club –and the price they want it to pay is becoming clear. The Centre for European Reform's trade wonk Sam Lowe tells me that the White Paper (which fleshed out Mrs May’s Chequers plan) "almost gets to Jersey", but that Mrs May would be expected to "accept that potential future divergence is not on the table" over goods.

How no-deal Brexit chatter could be helping UK's Theresa May

07 August 2018
“The government forcing people to think about it now ultimately strengthens their hands,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. “It means thought is put into why pursuing such an outcome is foolhardy.”

Jeremy Corbyn ditches consensus to reject EU trade deals

04 August 2018
Financial Times
Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, said such efforts had yet to bear fruit. “We know very well what Corbyn is against on trade but not much about what he has to replace it with,” he added.

Brexit deal off the menu at May-Macron summit

03 August 2018
“The Commission is taking a hard line not because it wants to but because it’s got instructions from France and Germany to do so,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank in London. “The British should not assume that just by talking to Merkel and Macron things will get easier.”

The Spectator podcast: China's new diplomacy

02 August 2018
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, spoke to The Spectator Podcast about the 'WTO option' and the likelihood of a no deal (from 16:45mins). 
“I think the chances of no deal are higher than they were. I still think it is more likely than not that there will be...

The dangerous delusion of no-deal Brexit

02 August 2018
The Economist
Brexiteers may call this Project Fear 2.0, but the evidence is against them. Market confidence would suffer. John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, says a no-deal Brexit would trigger both a recession and a run on the pound. No deal is not a serious option, even if today’s febrile politics pretends it is.

Has the EU-US trade war really been cancelled?

02 August 2018
Last week, Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker surprised many people when they announced an agreement to seemingly avert the trade war that many people had been expecting. While Trump has hyped this as a major breakthrough, many people have been more sceptical. John Springford, the deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, kindly agreed to discuss the implications for the deal with us.
The success of the deal “is yet to be seen”, says Springford. After all, “it’s not an agreement in itself, just an agreement to start talking about talks”.

'End of the fairy tale': Summer of discontent hits Macron's reputation

02 August 2018
The Local
"He [Macron] hasn't convinced enough people that what he's doing is not just franco-francais, that he's not just pursuing a French agenda and dressing it up in European clothing," said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform.

Germany's military is struggling amid rising tensions with Trump and Russia

01 August 2018
Business Insider UK
"What we've seen in the last few years — really the sort of tragic and kind of embarrassing stories about the state of the Bundeswehr — that is certainly sinking in, and Germans are now supporting more defense spending than they have in the past," Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said on a recent edition of the Center for a New American Security's Brussels Sprouts podcast. 

CER podcast: What is the cost of Brexit?

01 August 2018
The UK economy is around 2 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford speaks to Sophia Besch about his analysis, his modelling method and the implications of the result.

Theresa May to plead with Emmanuel Macron to ease Brexit stance

01 August 2018
The Times
Charles Grant, from the Centre for European Reform, said: “The French have been the toughest on Brexit on a range of issues, including financial services and Galileo (the satellite-navigation system being created by the EU). They are doing this both to grab business and because they genuinely fear how well the Eurosceptic movement will do in the European elections next May, when the National Front could conceivably win more votes. So I think France needs to demonstrate that Brexit doesn’t pay.”

UK second thoughts unlikely to change Brexit strategy

31 July 2018
"The Tory party is fundamentally a eurosceptic party, and any Tory leader who would talk about a referendum would be killed [politically], because that would possibly lead to Brexit not happening," noted Charles Grant, from the Centre for European Reform, a London think tank.
He told EUobserver that the debate was happening now "because there is much more uncertainty on what will happen" at the end of the negotiations with the EU.
"But chances of a vote are extremely small," he said.

A humiliating Brexit deal risks a descent into Weimar Britain

27 July 2018
The Guardian
But I am struck by how some of the best informed, most pro-European British experts, such as Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, have begun to argue that the EU 27 side is being too rigid, too exacting, too punitive in its approach. 

'Conjoined twins': How Brexit's Irish backstop conundrum could be solved

25 July 2018
The Telegraph
Sam Lowe, the trade and Brexit specialist at the Centre for European Reform is among the experts who have also lent credence to the idea. “You would create a Northern Ireland-specific backstop written into the Withdrawal Agreement which is unconditional,” he suggests, “and then combine it with an agreement for a potential all-UK Customs Union that supplements the Irish backstop, but remains conditional on a future agreement.”

“Regime change? The European Economy to 2030” – The CER’s new research project on the European economy

25 July 2018
LSE: New European Trade Unions Forum
The Centre for European Reform recently published a short Bulletin article on the future of the European economy. Here’s Bob Hancké‘s review:

Euronews: Does Trump want to strike trade deal with EU's Juncker?

24 July 2018
"I think Trump isn't looking to make a deal," Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told Euronews (from 0:20 mins).

What is at stake ahead of Juncker-Trump trade talks

24 July 2018
Financial Times
“The EU and US tried to bunch together all the trade disputes they had been having for decades [in the TTIP negotiations], but the differences in regulatory culture, different levels of precaution and desire for protection in different sectors proved too high a hurdle,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.