Research

The A to Z of Brexit being done

02 January 2023
The Independent
C- Customs: Although the picture was initially confused by coronavirus, the effect on trade of leaving the single market two years ago was immediate and negative. It is now possible to quantify the damage. John Springford of the Centre for European Reform estimates that national income is 5.5 per cent lower than it would otherwise have been.

Brexit: The scorecard two years on

02 January 2023
BBC News Scotland
The Centre for Economic Performance reckons that including that "dynamic" effect of Brexit could increase its impact on potential output to a hit of between between 6.3% and 9.5%, and the Centre for European Reform suggests the impact may have been a shortfall by up to 11% of the output that might have been expected.

Ceska Televize: Dobře odvedená práce za velmi složitých podmínek, hodnotí komentátoři z Bruselu Čechy

Camino Mortera-Martinez
02 January 2023
„Celkově to byl fantastický výkon, zvláště proto, o jak těžkou dobu se jednalo,“ hodnotí české předsednictví vedoucí bruselské kanceláře Centra pro evropskou reformu Camino Mortera-Martinez.

Michael Heseltine: Fifty years ago, we joined the EU – today, I deplore the deception of Brexit

02 January 2023
The Independent
The UK economy is over 5 per cent smaller, says the Centre for European Reform, than it would have been without Brexit.

Keir Starmer is ready to betray die-hard Remainers who ushered him in

01 January 2023
The Telegraph
But so far, Britain's departure has, from an economic perspective, been unambiguously negative. You can take it with a pinch of salt if you like, but the Centre for European Reform recently estimated that UK GDP is 5.5pc smaller because of Brexit, which is equivalent to around £40bn annually in tax revenue, or enough to pay for virtually all of Liz Truss's doomed tax cutting agenda.

Brexit regret: Why the ‘undeniable disaster’ finally hit home with the British public in 2022

01 January 2023
The Independent
In December, the Centre for European Reform (CER) found that Brexit cost the UK a staggering £33bn in lost trade, investment and growth. The CER also estimated the tax loss from Brexit at around £40bn. The research – first shared with The Independent – showed that by June of this year Britain’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been if the country had remained in the EU.

When will Ukraine join the EU – and how is Ireland helping the cause?

31 December 2022
The Irish Times
Because of rampant problems within the western Balkans, the challenge is huge. “None is close to joining the EU,” says Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “They must all overcome substantial hurdles to meet the Copenhagen criteria, which define the EU’s standards on strong democratic institutions, a functioning market economy and the ability to take on the obligations of membership.”

Europe's energy sacrifices: The winter test of resolve

30 December 2022
Financial Times
“Everyone is talking about energy costs and comparing energy bills and that brings people together,” says Elisabetta Cornago, senior research fellow in energy at the Centre for European Reform. “Citizens want to see businesses, shops, and public entities save energy just as they are doing at home. Reducing very visible energy consumption like public lighting and shop signs, those things individually probably don’t make a big difference but it is about trying to put together a lot of relatively small consumption cuts and the visible ones can be highly motivating.”

Post-Brexit Guide: What's been the impact — and how did it happen?

29 December 2022
Euronews
A report by the Centre for European Reform in December 2022 is the latest to illustrate how Brexit has hit the UK's GDP, investment and trade. 

Brexit: The EU may have moved on, but the UK remains trapped in a doom cycle

Camino Mortera-Martinez
27 December 2022
iNews
“Ukraine has opened the EU’s eyes to the fact that there are a lot of big boys in the world and they have to play at the same level,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform. “It has given the EU confidence – and brought it together more than anything else. And it is the first time that the EU has found a crisis that fits it well.”

UK traders on Brexit: ‘It’s increased paperwork, stress, everything’

27 December 2022
The Guardian
But John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, says it’s important to track the UK’s performance against other, similar economies – an approach he calls the “doppelganger method”.“If you compare UK trade after leaving the single market to UK trade before, then you’re not really comparing apples with apples, because you need to compare with other countries. There’s been a big global goods trade boom since the end of the pandemic,” he says.

Crise au Royaume-Uni : comment le Brexit a détérioré l’économie britannique

26 December 2022
Le Parisien
Dans un article publié le 21 décembre, le Centre for European Reform (CER) estimait qu’au 2e trimestre 2022, le PIB britannique était inférieur de 5,5 % à ce qu’il aurait été si le pays était resté dans l’UE.

Tony’s picks of the week

24 December 2022
Financial Times
The UK’s gross domestic product, investment and foreign goods trade have all taken a substantial hit as a result of Brexit, John Springford calculates in an analysis for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Brexit snarling again amid more grim economic news

23 December 2022
The Independent
John Springford at the Centre for European Reform, who has been tracking its increasingly dire impact on the UK economy, released his latest update this week.Based on the performance of similar countries before and after the event, he calculated that the UK’s economy was 5.5 per cent smaller in the second quarter of the year than it otherwise would have been. In real money, economic output was £33bn lower and tax revenues were £12bn lower.

Brexit chickens come home to roost

23 December 2022
The Herald Scotland
A particularly stark report on the cost of Brexit was published on Wednesday by the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank. CER deputy director John Springford’s latest report on the impact of leaving the EU on the UK economy estimates that Brexit had, by the second quarter of 2022, reduced the country’s gross domestic product by 5.5 per cent. That is a very big amount indeed.

Comienza una nueva era de política exterior finlandesa

Helmi Pillai
23 December 2022
ES Global
La invasión rusa de Ucrania ha provocado unos cambios sin precedentes en la política exterior finlandesa. La solicitud de ingreso en la OTAN no debe ser más que el principio.

The UK is now at a permanent disadvantage to competitors in the single market

22 December 2022
Financial Times
This week’s chart comes from the latest assessment of the effects of Brexit (up until June 2022) by John Springford at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. The headline number is a 5.5 per cent (£33bn) negative hit to GDP in the second quarter of 2022, when compared with remaining in the EU single market.

La factura del Brexit: la economía de RU se ha reducido un 5,5% desde su salida de la UE

22 December 2022
EL Confidencial
La economía del Reino Unido era en junio de este año un 5,5% menor de lo que habría sido si el país continuara integrado en la Unión Europea (UE), una ralentización que ha forzado a subir impuestos, según un informe divulgado por el laboratorio de ideas británico Centre for European Reform (CER).

Spain's constitutional crisis raises concerns over polarization

Camino Mortera-Martinez
22 December 2022
Voice of America
Camino Mortera, of the Centre for European Reform, a research institution, said the Spanish government’s attempts to interfere in the composition of the judiciary had worrying overtones of events in Poland and Hungary.Warsaw and Budapest have muzzled the independent judiciary in moves which have concerned the European Commission and civil rights groups.“Given what is happening with Poland and Hungary, just a mere suspicion that a government is trying to intervene in any way in the composition of a court through emergency legislation raises suspicions,” she told VOA.

Rocks and hard places

22 December 2022
Politico London Playbook
With organizations like the Centre for European Reform painting stark pictures about the GDP hit from Brexit (5.5 percent, according to John Springford) the red flashing lights don’t appear on the verge of dimming. And that means the debate about whether Brexit was such a good idea will continue to rage, while public sentiment gurgles beneath the surface.