Research
Merkel succession crisis in Germany leaves Europe leaderless, too
11 February 2020
The New York Times
Nor has Germany been prepared “to suffer economic pain for political and foreign-policy gains," said Christian Odendahl, a German economist with the Centre for European Reform in Berlin. “And this is now a Germany feeling economically insecure about its future.”
British services have played second fiddle in the Brexit debate
11 February 2020
The UK in a Changing Europe
In 2018, services accounted for 46 per cent of UK exports, or £297 billion. The EU received 40 per cent of British services exports, and was the origin of 48 per cent of British services imports, the highest proportion of any UK trading partner.
Freeports plan for ‘left-behind’ regions divides opinion
10 February 2020
Financial Times
“It could pull in industry from elsewhere [in the world] — but more likely from elsewhere in the UK,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, adding: “You can argue it’s good for rebalancing, but only if you assume it comes from London rather than areas that are struggling to get by.”
Boris Johnson's Brexit deal can be done, but at what cost?
10 February 2020
Sky News
Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank, thinks the two sides will manage to agree a deal this year, but thinks it will, as with the divorce talks, go down to the wire.
"One of the constant threads throughout Brexit was everyone saying "we are happy with severe disruption", but no one really wants it when it approaches," he says.
"In the third quarter the UK will concede in certain areas and the EU will budge a little bit and then Boris Johnson will package it up as a win."
"One of the constant threads throughout Brexit was everyone saying "we are happy with severe disruption", but no one really wants it when it approaches," he says.
"In the third quarter the UK will concede in certain areas and the EU will budge a little bit and then Boris Johnson will package it up as a win."
The EU's response to Trump's peace plan has been pitiful – it is time for the bloc to speak up
10 February 2020
The Independent
The 27 have a crucial role to play in containing the American president's destructive impulses – a role it is entirely reneging.
EU mulls carbon tariffs in climate trade war warning shot to Brexit Britain
08 February 2020
The Telegraph
“This is another example of the UK needing to take a decision on whether it continues to take an EU approach or not in the knowledge that if it doesn’t there is the possibility of facing trade penalties,” said Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think tank.
We have until July to ask Europe for more time. How firm is that deadline?
07 February 2020
Prospect
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “My guess: there will not be a formal extension of the transition à la the withdrawal agreement. But there will be a de facto extension of large parts of the transition because in areas like security, research, education, services, investment, aviation etc there won’t be enough time to do deals this year.” We would have to continue paying into the EU budget over any lengthened transition period but perhaps something can be done.
La UE y EE UU deben trabajar unidos para acabar con el sitio de Trípoli
07 February 2020
ESglobal
El conflicto libio continúa intensificándose a pesar de la reciente conferencia de Berlín. La Unión Europea debe trabajar con Estados Unidos y presionar a las potencias regionales para que dejen de alimentar la lucha.
Government launches consultation on post-Brexit tariff regime
06 February 2020
City A.M
Trade expert Sam Lowe told City A.M. he welcomed the “sensible approach”.“Focusing on inputs is sensible and nuisance tariffs (below 2.5 per cent) are just irritating,” he said. “The big question for me is how this interacts with the Northern Ireland protocol, where divergence from the EU’s most favoured nation tariff levels makes things slightly more complicated from the rest of the world.”
Brexit leaves EU’s orphans to fend for themselves
06 February 2020
Financial Times
“Countries like the Netherlands used to hide behind the UK’s back, hoping it would be very vocal while representing Dutch interests too,” said Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank in Brussels. “It was better to have another member state threatening a veto.”
EU chaos: Brussels ALREADY missing UK after Brexit - 'Countries used to hide behind them!'
06 February 2020
The Daily Express
Agata Gostynksa-Jakubowska, from the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said: “Countries like the Netherlands used to hide behind the UK’s back, hoping it would be very vocal while representing Dutch interests too. “It was better to have another member state threatening a veto.”
Brexit turns up the heat on access rules to EU defense coffers
05 February 2020
Defence News
Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, said the jury is still out over that assessment. “The big question is whether the European Union can prove that the initiatives improve the operational capabilities,” she said.
Calm down, Brexit trade deal can be done
05 February 2020
Financial Times
As Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, puts it, “the negotiation will be over preconditions. There will be some tough issues, but there is nothing fundamental in the mandates to stop a deal. If those key issues get resolved, the trade agreement will pretty much write itself.”
Better off without the British? Foreign Affairs asks the experts
05 February 2020
Foreign Affairs
Brexit will damage the United Kingdom more than the EU, but both will be weaker as a result of it. The United Kingdom, as one of only two EU countries with a genuinely global foreign policy, has played a large role in shaping the EU's response to international crises. It has also been instrumental in strengthening EU law enforcement and domestic security co-operation at a time of increasing threats. Ian Bond, Director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform.
EU trade chief: ‘Australia-style’ Brexit agreement means no deal
05 February 2020
Politico
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson could still end up without a trade agreement if he pursues an "Australia-style" deal with the EU because such a deal does not exist, European Commissioner for Trade Phil Hogan said.
Boris Johnson's 'Australian-style deal' is 'code for no-deal', EU trade chief says
05 February 2020
The Independent
An "Australian-style" Brexit trade deal suggested by Boris Johnson as an option in talks with the EU is just "code for no-deal", the bloc's trade commissioner has said.
How the EU can survive Brexit
05 February 2020
The New Statesman
There are tensions between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel – but unless France and Germany can work together the bloc will fragment.
Post Brexit, EU shows ‘little appetite’ for defense co-operation
05 February 2020
Defence News
Centre for European Reform analyst Luigi Scazzieri said in a recent opinion piece for Aspenia Online that while a close defense partnership may emerge at some point, it is unlikely to in the near term. “Boris Johnson’s government appears cautious of seeking a close relationship with the EU, with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab arguing that it had other options,” Scazzieri said.
Brussels has nothing to fear from UK in talks on level playing field
04 February 2020
The Times
Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says that Brussels is nervous because it fears that the UK, being so close to the EU, could “entice investment via deregulation that would otherwise go to the EU”. Those companies could then use the UK’s free trade deal to access EU markets.
Keynote address by Commissioner Phil Hogan at the Centre for European Reform
04 February 2020
European Commission
Good evening ladies and gentlemen,
First of all let me thank CER for the invitation to speak here today, and let me commend you for the hugely important space you provide for reflection and debate.
We live in a time where balanced analysis has gone out of fashion in many constituencies. Polarised...
First of all let me thank CER for the invitation to speak here today, and let me commend you for the hugely important space you provide for reflection and debate.
We live in a time where balanced analysis has gone out of fashion in many constituencies. Polarised...