Research
Trump and Europe: The sun sets on the West
09 November 2016
Donald Trump's election will strain the transatlantic partnership. Populism in Europe and the US will threaten post-Cold War security and prosperity. Europe will need to work with Trump and to hedge against risks.
Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks
25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
Brexit Britain: The poor man of Western Europe?
23 September 2016
Britain's economic record is mediocre and much of the country poor by Western European standards. The reasons for this are home-grown. And Brexit risks aggravating them.
Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse
19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities
Europe and its South China Sea dilemma
19 September 2016
Few issues in today's international politics are as thorny as the disputes in the South China Sea. A recent international ruling complicates matters further. Europe's response has been too weak.
Why a hard Brexit looks likely
19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.
Bulletin Issue 110 - October/November 2016
19 September 2016
- Why a hard Brexit looks likely, John Springford
- Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse, Simon Tilford
- Europe and its South China Sea dilemma, Rem Korteweg
Spain's groundhog day: Why Madrid needs a government
12 September 2016
Whether or not there is a third election, Spain needs a government. Madrid must be a credible partner as the EU confronts multiple crises, from migration to Brexit.
Security of supply in EU defence: Friends in need?
17 August 2016
In its drive to establish EU-wide security of supply for the defence market, Brussels faces protectionism, a flawed notion of European strategic autonomy and mistrust among governments.
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’
05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.
Can the EU-Turkey migration deal survive Erdoğan’s purges?
02 August 2016
Erdoğan’s actions threaten to derail the migration deal. The EU should postpone visa liberalisation and show it is willing to be tough.
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals
28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.
Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?
18 July 2016
The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.
Post-referendum bulletin Issue 109 - July 2016
18 July 2016
- How Brexit is changing the EU, Charles Grant
- Britain's limited options, John Springford
- Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?, Ian Bond
Britain's limited options
18 July 2016
Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
How Brexit is changing the EU
15 July 2016
By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
Long day’s journey into economic night
11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.
NATO defence spending: Money can't buy you solidarity
06 July 2016
NATO allies have halted the trend of decreasing defence budgets. At the Warsaw Summit, they should work to translate spending levels into a stronger military posture for the alliance.