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Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, a research fellow at the Brussels-based Centre for European Reform, highlighted in her article for the Guardian this year that countries across Europe are far from guilt-free. Mrs Gostynska-Jakubowska highlighted examples where EU nations have seen international law and democracy threatened.

“In private, the Germans are very worried,” said Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform. “Macron is going to come under intense pressure to give ground, but he is so arrogant and bloody-minded that he may just go it alone as did over the 6-month Brexit extension.”

Sam Lowe, senior research fellow, Centre for European Reform, emphasised the relationship between these sectors and manufacturing exports, saying that: “ a lot of smaller SMEs do not think they are linked to the broader global market, but they are. A lot of them service local manufacturers, and because they are servicing local manufacturers their value is, I suppose, generated ultimately through a manufacturing export. The value added from services embodied in manufacturing exports is significant “.

“This is a big shift,” said Sam Lowe, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. ...“I think what Frost was saying was that the UK has accepted that state aid is going to be subject to dispute resolution. This is the opening we were looking for to pave the way for an agreement on enforceability,” he said.

Ian Bond, a former British diplomat in Russia and ambassador to Latvia, and now a foreign policy analyst at the London-based Center for European Reform, says there have been numerous suspicious deaths of Russian political exiles across Europe – and all too often the response has fallen short.

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London has argued that Brussels should probably "take on board much of the financial and administrative burden, particularly for small and medium-sized companies". That might mean creating and funding a few carbon certification bodies out of the CBAM revenue.

As John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, pointed out last week, equivalence does not cover every aspect of financial services, especially when firms deal with ordinary consumers. However, he argued that it would still be helpful.“Once the pandemic is over there will still be benefits in being able to dip into a big pool of skilled financiers in London rather than having workers distributed across Europe,” wrote Springford.

Given how dependent the EU is on exports, which are worth about half its GDP compared with 12% in America and 18% in China, the bloc will probably come off worse from any protectionist fight. It is possible that merely developing the tools will ensure the EU never has to use them, argues Sam Lowe from the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. But if the EU does end up using these tools as a stick, it may turn out to be a boomerang that comes hurtling back at them.

Member states broadly agree on the aim of the EU's Turkey policy, but disagree on the best way to achieve this, Luigi Scazzieri, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said ahead of the meetings.