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Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform unpicks the options beautifully in this piece in which he concludes that “pursuing an incremental approach” is going to be the most sure-footed way to build trust and overcome long-standing differences.He notes, for example, that the Gibraltar issue has held up implementing a deal signed by the Conservatives to facilitate troop movements across the EU. Reaching agreement with Spain over post-Brexit arrangements for Gibraltar is a key target for Lammy this autumn, but it shows how EU negotiations don’t happen in isolation.

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), noted that Trump’s 10% tariff on global goods would especially affect Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, which is already reeling from a combination of weak demand and growing competition from China.“10% is not a massive tariff, but it will definitely hurt German exports, in an era in which they’re already struggling,” he said.

Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER), said that Germany’s industrial malaise can no longer plausibly be attributed to the spike in energy prices triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as energy costs are now broadly similar to what they were prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.“I think it will take time to disentangle what the factors are, but it is also very clear it cannot really be energy anymore,” Tordoir told Euractiv.

»Han lader virkelig ikke til at være den rette upartiske mægler, der kan tale med begge sider. Han har været ekstremt kritisk over for Ukraine, har forsøgt at stoppe al støtte til Ukraine og vil ikke hjælpe landet militært, samtidig med han har været meget tæt på Rusland,« siger Zselyke Csaky, analytiker ved tænketanken Centre for European Reform. 

Any warming of relations will begin with setting a new tone, Luigi Scazzieri, a senior research fellow at the think-tank, Centre for European Reform, said, telling The Parliament that “a lot of it is about mood, and just having good relations and trying to build on that.” ...“It’s a political wound that is still so fresh,” Scazzieri said. “They really didn’t want to touch it.” 

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said Starmer must be “modest” and recognize that “Britain has a poor reputation” in Europe.
“They know that you are not Boris Johnson,” he wrote, in an open letter to the new PM. “But you represent a country that, as far as they are concerned, behaved appallingly during the long years of the Brexit negotiations.”