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“I cannot think of another country which is so sceptical about its own armed forces as Germany,” says Sophia Besch, a European defence expert at the Centre for European Reform in London. “As an institution,” she adds, “the Bundeswehr is incredibly insecure.” Forthright attempts after the war to ensure Germany’s newly formed armed forces did not forget the Nazi era are embodied in the concept of a soldier as a “citizen in uniform”. Besch says German soldiers are not allowed to dress up like their British and American counterparts. “It is no accident that they resemble bus drivers,” she adds.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said in November that if the UK leaves the single market then financial firms will lose their EU passporting rights. He claimed the UK cannot “cherry pick” at aspects of the single market and it will lose the benefits of the single market when it leaves the European Union. Speaking at a conference by the Centre for European Reform, Mr Barnier said: “On financial services, UK voices suggest that Brexit does not mean Brexit. Brexit means Brexit, everywhere.

John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform, said he had reviewed the 'aerospace' analysis and concluded: 'It's entirely descriptive. Zero analysis of Brexit impact.'

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that as long as Britain's goals remained vague, competing forces in May's government could keep together. "But the real difficulties ahead lie when the British will ask for special system of regulatory alignment — they won't get it," he said.

"The government has to decide what to ask for in phase two, which is going to be very difficult in itself," said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. "The British government is going to find that whatever it asks for, the EU is going to be tough," he told AFP, adding: "I think there's going to be a massive crisis."