Press

« Une partie de ces problèmes relève de l’adaptation à court terme aux nouvelles règles. Cela devrait se calmer une fois que les entreprises comprendront les démarches à effectuer, estime Sam Lowe, du groupe de réflexion Centre for European Reform. Mais c’est aussi l’amorce d’une relation commerciale fondamentalement différente entre l’Union européenne et le RoyaumeUni. Chaque échange va entraîner un coût supplémentaire et, pour certaines entreprises, ça ne sera plus rentable. »

As the Centre for European Reform points out, the chancellor has simultaneously managed to draw outsized support from conservatives, centrists, greens, women and descendants of migrants. But her successor will not be given the benefit of the doubt by most of these groups and will have to prioritise.

Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, says CDU delegates are not just picking a new leader but also casting a vote on the future of conservatism in Germany.

Eine lange Periode der Instabilität wäre die Folge". Nicht nur aus diesem Grund hält der Politikwissenschaftler Luigi Scazzieri vom Londoner Thinktank "Centre for European Reform" (CER) für ziemlich ausgeschlossen: "Keine der größeren Parteien will Neuwahlen. Sogar Matteo Salvini würde sich überlegen, ob er in der Pandemie an die Regierung will oder nicht vielleicht lieber bis 2023 auf die regulären Wahlen wartet." 

Commenting on the Brexit deal, Charles Grant, director of think tank the Centre for European Reform, warned there were still uncertainties surrounding the UK-EU relationship going forward.Like Sir John, he also pointed to the sustainability of checks of goods moving from Britain to Northern Ireland. Due to Northern Ireland remaining partly under EU single market and customs union, he warned some may be "tempted to tear up the NI protocol". 

Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform says these “Merkel voters” include many women, people with migrant roots and centrists reassured by the chancellor’s incremental progressivism.

Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform who was previously also a member of the Government's Strategic Trade Advisory Group, has warned negotiations on financial services "could create political tension in the EU-UK relationship".He said Brussels is yet to decide on the issue of so-called "equivalence" - determining if the UK's rules and regulations are suitably compatible with its own that firms in London can have access to the EU market.

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said there were problems that could grow over coming weeks and months.“The new import/export formalities are proving problematic for many companies. The lack of obvious queues at the border disguises the fact that many trucks are stuck in depots, unable to head to the ports due to their clients failing to provide the necessary documentation and information.”