Research
The danger of no Brexit deal to UK economy
30 May 2017
Financial Times
John Springford and Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform argue, there are three ways in which a “cliff edge” Brexit would severely damage the UK economy. EU tariffs would immediately be payable on imports from Britain, averaging about 4 per cent but varying hugely. British car exports would face a 10 per cent tariff. This would be hugely damaging for the motor industry, which relies on components crossing borders many times before a vehicle is assembled.
May poses Brexit deal or no deal conundrum
30 May 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said leaving Europe without a deal would leave British business and the City in a state of regulatory and legal limbo, with the immediate introduction of tariffs and customs controls.“I think it’s more likely than not there will be a deal,” he said. “I think the chaos in the financial markets would be extreme if it looked like there was not going to be a deal. It doesn’t bear thinking about.”
Brexit weekly briefing: Is no deal for Britain really better than a bad deal?
30 May 2017
The Guardian
As the Centre for European Reform (CER) argued last week, it would also mean: UK pharmaceutical and chemical companies losing EU product approval across the continent; UK-based airlines seeing flights to EU member-states grounded; and City financial firms losing their passporting rights. The economic consequence of this kind of train-crash, no-deal Brexit – potentially far more damaging than a negotiated transition even to trading on World Trade Organisation terms – could be a fall in GDP of as much as 5.5%.
Will the UK lose access to EU's crime-fighting database after Brexit?
29 May 2017
The Guardian
The Centre for European Reform thinktank believes a deal is possible but requires creativity – and a concession from the Conservatives on the European court of justice.
Why 'Brexit' will make Britain's mediocre economy worse
29 May 2017
The New York Times
An observer of Britain's 'Brexit' debate would be forgiven for thinking that the country's economy is one of the European Union's star performers.
Merkel makes waves with views on EU-US relations
29 May 2017
Deutsche Welle
Sophia Besch, a research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, has been tracking the Twitter chatter and tells DW it's been very interesting to see "who is alarmed and who isn't". Besch believes that despite the transatlantic nature of her remarks, Merkel was aiming squarely at German voters.
Theresa May's 'no deal is better than a bad deal' Brexit logic could end up destroying the British economy
28 May 2017
The Independent
As the Centre for European Reform spelled out in a briefing paper last week, the consequences of leaving the EU single market and customs union in 2019 without a new trade deal, or at least a transitional trading arrangement giving us time to conclude such a deal, would be utterly disastrous.
NATO needs a European 2 per cent
27 May 2017
EU Observer
NATO's summit in Brussels, the first for US president Donald Trump, was intended as a fresh start, a chance for him to distance himself from previous comments in which he called NATO obsolete.
Searching for Brexit consensus in the City
26 May 2017
Financial Times
Why the costs to the UK economy of failing to strike a deal with the EU would dwarf those of signing up to a bad deal, from John Springford and Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform.
Nato summit: How will the Alliance handle Trump today?
25 May 2017
Prospect
Today, Donald Trump will be attending the NATO summit in Brussels, all signs point to a Europe eager to appease him.
Brexit hard talk masks signs of compromise as negotiations near
25 May 2017
Bloomerg
“Both sides will have to make some compromises -- but we shouldn’t fool ourselves into thinking that it won’t mainly have to be the UK,” said Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. “Brussels seems to be aware that we can interpret some of the tougher remarks in the UK as being directed to a domestic audience.”
Wary allies await Trump at NATO summit in Brussels
25 May 2017
CNN
"It is not unusual for the first summit for a new US President to be a 'get to know you' summit - but there is a bit more at stake," said Sophia Besch, a NATO expert at the Centre for European Reform. European allies had to take Trump's "obsolete" comments "very seriously," Besch said, because Europe depends on America's defense capabilities and contribution to NATO - US currently provides 73% of the organization's budget and spends 3.6% of its own GDP on defense.
The UK won't be in the room for decisions critical to Europe's stability
25 May 2017
The Times
The implications for individual countries could be momentous, particularly for those outside the eurozone. Mishandled, as Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska and Christian Odendahl note in a new report for the Centre for European Reform, this process could increase divisions between member states and even lead to further disintegration.
Post-Brexit EU unity may not hold
25 May 2017
The Wall Street Journal
The implications for individual countries could be momentous, particularly for those outside the eurozone. Mishandled, as Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska and Christian Odendahl note in a new report for the Centre for European Reform, this process could increase divisions between members states and even lead to further disintegration.
Brexit and the resurgence of terror
25 May 2017
Financial Times
“After the general election, Theresa May is going to have to sell a softer message on ECJ oversight to the British people,” says Camino Mortera-Martinez of the Centre for European Reform. “This is essential if a bespoke deal on justice and home affairs is to be agreed.”
Solidarity pledges from Europe point to future security challenges
23 May 2017
The Independent
Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow from the Centre for European Reform, says the attacks will renew the focus on security issues in the Brexit talks. “Every time there is a scare like this, it highlights that no country is alone,” she says. That the bombing was in Manchester also punctures the argument, prevalent during last year’s Brexit referendum campaign, linking mass migration with terrorism, she adds. “Just because you are outside the Schengen area, doesn’t mean you escape terrorism. Closing borders won’t shield you from the evils of the world,” Ms Mortera-Martinez says.
Europe's high anxiety over Trump
23 May 2017
US News
But carefully worded platitudes will only serve to mask the reality that Trump's America is largely abdicating its NATO leadership role, weakening the once-durable military alliance. "Even if he commits to the alliance," says Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, "given the erratic comments of the past, US leadership is still not there."
CER podcast: Why the UK voted to leave, and lessons for the EU 27
23 May 2017
CER podcast on the reasons the UK voted to leave, how these political trends played out in the French elections, and lessons for the EU 27.
Eurozone bounces back as growth beats US, Britain – But is it sustainable?
19 May 2017
Voice of America
“We’re seeing a cyclical recovery because we finally had the European Central Bank operating like a normal central bank and doing quantitative easing,” says analyst John Springford of the Centre for European Reform. ...Italy’s economy is still in the slow lane with annualized growth of just .8 percent. “It’s growing very slowly, its banks still haven’t been sorted out and there’s a lot of political instability,” says Springford.
Restoring the Franco-German leadership of the EU
18 May 2017
Open democracy
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform remarks that “Germany wants more fiscal discipline and new mechanisms to make countries like France and Italy engage in painful structural reform, while France wants more common instruments such as ‘Eurobonds’ and steps towards a transfer union.”