Research

The Commission's economic forecasts are still too complacent

The Commission's economic forecasts are still too complacent

Simon Tilford
07 November 2008
On the face of it, it appears churlish to accuse the Commission of complacency when it is forecasting no growth in the eurozone economy in 2009 and a deep recession in the UK.
Lessons from the financial crisis: A twin-track response

Lessons from the financial crisis: A twin-track response

Philip Whyte
05 November 2008
The credit crunch has unleashed widespread anger outside the financial sector. And rightly so. Not only have taxpayers had to bail out an industry that is uncommonly well rewarded. But the effects of the credit crunch on the real economy are likely to be painful and prolonged – not least on the jobs market.
Irish government

How a new Irish government might save Lisbon

24 October 2008
The financial crisis is challenging many of our assumptions about the course of politics and world affairs. Gordon Brown – only weeks ago portrayed as nearing the end of his time as UK prime minister – has been elevated to European, even global leadership status.
Beyond banking: What the financial crisis means for the EU

Beyond banking: What the financial crisis means for the EU

Charles Grant, Clara Marina O'Donnell, Hugo Brady, Katinka Barysch, Philip Whyte, Simon Tilford, Tomas Valasek
23 October 2008
The world is in the midst of a financial crisis which will have far-reaching implications for the EU – not just for the region's immediate economic outlook, but also for the future of the euro, financial regulation, economic reform and global governance.
Another Great Depression?

Another Great Depression?

Katinka Barysch
15 October 2008
Many observers have drawn parallels between the current economic crisis and the Great Depression of the 1930s. However, the stock market collapse of 1929 did not directly cause what turned out to be the deepest and most prolonged recession of modern times, ultimately ending in the Second World War.
Scapegoating the US lets others off too easily

Scapegoating the US lets others off too easily

Simon Tilford
02 October 2008
Huge amounts have been said about the consequences of the credit crunch for the US and UK economies. They undoubtedly face major adjustments, and several years of very weak economic growth.
How to handle the new Russia

How to handle the new Russia

01 October 2008
The war in Georgia has led to a surge of anti-western sentiment in Russia. The fact that Americans and Europeans broadly sympathised with Georgia – when it was Mikheil Saakashvili’s attempt to take South Ossetia by force that started the war – infuriates many Russians.
Russia, China and the Georgia dimension

Russia, China and the Georgia dimension

Bobo Lo
01 October 2008
Russia’s relations with the West today are more problematic than at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall. With talk of a new Cold War and of parallels with the great power rivalries that preceded the First World War, Moscow’s ‘strategic partnership’ with Beijing has been out of...
How strong is Russia's economic foundation?

How strong is Russia's economic foundation?

Pekka Sutela
01 October 2008
Russia's economy is in deep recession. Many Russians hope that rising oil prices will quickly restore the high growth rates their country enjoyed before 2008.
Options for EU trade policy

Options for EU trade policy

Philip Whyte
01 October 2008
In late July, the Doha round suffered its umpteenth setback, when ministers from the member-states of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) failed to agree on a package to liberalise world trade.
Pipelines, politics and power

Pipelines, politics and power: The future of EU-Russia energy relations

Pavel Baev, Vaclav Bartuska, Christian Cleutinx, Clifford Gaddy, Roland Götz, Daniel Gros, Barry Ickes, Andrey Konoplyanik, Konstantin Kosachev, Tatiana Mitrova, Andris Piebalgs, Jeffery Piper, Pawel Swieboda, Dmitri Trenin, Sergey Yastrzhembsky
01 October 2008
Does the Kremlin use energy as a political weapon? Why is Russia’s oil and gas output stagnating? Can and should the EU try to reduce its dependence on Russian hydrocarbons? Are the EU and Russia engaged in a pipeline war? What does energy solidarity mean? What rules should govern EU-Russia energy relations?
In defence of Anglo-Saxon capitalism

In defence of Anglo-Saxon capitalism

29 September 2008
Those who never liked ‘Anglo-Saxon’ capitalism are feeling smug. Marxists, fans of ‘Rhineland’ capitalism and those who simply cannot stand American power are crowing.
India's role in the new world order

India's role in the new world order

26 September 2008
Few doubt that India's geopolitical role will grow. But what kind of impact will India make on the world's economic and political order?
Bulletin issue 62

Issue 62 - 2008

Charles Grant, Philip Whyte, Bobo Lo
26 September 2008
Can the next US president heal the transatlantic rift?

Can the next US president heal the transatlantic rift?

Tomas Valasek
19 September 2008
There are two schools of thought on what the election of a new US president will mean for transatlantic relations. The optimists argue that relations will improve significantly.
The EU's toolbox for Russia

The EU's toolbox for Russia

Katinka Barysch
15 September 2008
Last week, Russia belatedly signed up to a timetable for pulling back its troops from the ‘buffer’ zone in Georgia. The EU, and its current president, Nicolas Sarkozy, deserve credit for having brokered the initial ceasefire and then pushing hard for Russia to follow the terms. The important question now is how the EU will respond in case tensions do not ease, or even grow further.
The Arab-Israeli conflict: France's dashed hopes

The Arab-Israeli conflict: France's dashed hopes

Clara Marina O'Donnell
03 September 2008
During a trip to Israel in August, the only optimists I met were French diplomats. The reason for their upbeat mood? Ambitious plans by President Sarkozy for the EU to advance the Middle East peace process – including a controversial proposal that the EU should take the lead in creating an international peacekeeping force which could replace the Israeli army in the West Bank as part of a peace deal. But in the current inauspicious environment, can France, which currently holds the EU presidency, really help to move things forward and allow the EU to play a bigger role in the peace process? ...
What does the war in Georgia mean for EU foreign policy?

What does the war in Georgia mean for EU foreign policy?

Tomas Valasek
15 August 2008
The war in Georgia divided the European Union instead of uniting it. Some member-states condemned Russia and gave (non-military) aid to the Georgian government; others accused Tbilisi of provoking the war.
Farewell, Polish plumber

Farewell, Polish plumber

Philip Whyte
07 August 2008
When the EU expanded its membership in 2004, the UK was one of only three EU countries – Ireland and Sweden were the others – fully to open its borders to migrants from the ten new member states.
Three scenarios for the Lisbon treaty

Three scenarios for the Lisbon treaty

01 August 2008
Eurosceptics make a good point when they argue that the EU should concentrate on external challenges like climate change, energy security, migration and global trade. But Ireland’s vote against the Lisbon treaty means that the EU now has to devote more time and energy to sorting out its rules and institutions. Those who urge the EU to look outwards but celebrate the Irish No are inconsistent and hypocritical.