Press

Sam Lowe, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank, thinks the two sides will manage to agree a deal this year, but thinks it will, as with the divorce talks, go down to the wire.
"One of the constant threads throughout Brexit was everyone saying "we are happy with severe disruption", but no one really wants it when it approaches," he says.
"In the third quarter the UK will concede in certain areas and the EU will budge a little bit and then Boris Johnson will package it up as a win."
 

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “My guess: there will not be a formal extension of the transition à la the withdrawal agreement. But there will be a de facto extension of large parts of the transition because in areas like security, research, education, services, investment, aviation etc there won’t be enough time to do deals this year.” We would have to continue paying into the EU budget over any lengthened transition period but perhaps something can be done.

“Countries like the Netherlands used to hide behind the UK’s back, hoping it would be very vocal while representing Dutch interests too,” said Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank in Brussels. “It was better to have another member state threatening a veto.”

Trade expert Sam Lowe told City A.M. he welcomed the “sensible approach”.“Focusing on inputs is sensible and nuisance tariffs (below 2.5 per cent) are just irritating,” he said. “The big question for me is how this interacts with the Northern Ireland protocol, where divergence from the EU’s most favoured nation tariff levels makes things slightly more complicated from the rest of the world.”

An "Australian-style" Brexit trade deal suggested by Boris Johnson as an option in talks with the EU is just "code for no-deal", the bloc's trade commissioner has said.

Sophia Besch, a senior research fellow with the Centre for European Reform, said the jury is still out over that assessment. “The big question is whether the European Union can prove that the initiatives improve the operational capabilities,” she said.

Mõttekoja Centre for European Reform analüütik Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska sõnul valitseb Suurbritannias ikka veel arusaam, et võib tulla Brüsselisse ja ähvardada oma partnereid, lüüa rusikas lauale ja kasutada jaga ja valitse lähenemist.