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Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at think-tank the Centre for European Reform warned that businesses could face a “rocky readjustment period” in the new year. “While businesses will most certainly welcome the deal, they will suffer from the lack of an additional grace, or implementation, period to allow them more time to prepare for the change,” he said.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, wrote on Twitter: "As expected the 'Trade and Co-operation Deal' covers both trade and co-operation on matters such as law enforcement, civil and criminal judicial matters and research. It contains an additional 'horizontal' chapter on governance.

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said the deal was "thin" and that negotiations would likely be ongoing. "When the Brits realise what a thin deal they've got, their politicians will debate how/whether to improve it. Labour is likely to seek closer economic & security ties. For one reason or another, UK & EU will be in permanent negotiation, for at least 50 years. Ask the Swiss," Grant tweeted.

Confusion over product labelling, safety standards and customs rules means companies could also be looking at future product recalls, fines and even imprisonment as they trade under a new regime, according to the Centre for European Reform’s (CER) Sam Lowe.“It is not a question of whether companies will break the law – they will – but how vigorously the EU and UK authorities choose to enforce the new rules,” Mr Lowe said.

Charles Grant ist Chef des überparteilichen „Centre for European Reform“, ein weiser und leiser Mann, der den Brexit voraussagte, als das Wort dafür noch gar nicht existierte, ihm aber bereits im Jahre 2004 schwante, dass seine Landsleute gehen würden. Man begegnete Grant im Laufe der Jahre immer wieder.

For more insight into the EU’s economic future, euronews’ Naomi Lloyd spoke to Christian Odendahl, Chief Economist of think-tank the Centre for European Reform.According to Odendahl, we really need this fund. Southern Europe’s economies depend a lot on tourism and he believes the European recovery fund can bridge the gaps between the north and the south’s finances:“The amounts that are going from the north of Europe to the south are quite sizeable”, says Odendahl, adding “for a country like Greece, for example, it is bound to receive roughly 2 percent of GDP over the next couple of years. That’s a very sizeable transfer.”

Rory Stewart, the former foreign office minister, told a Centre for European Reform event last week that the idea of “a big boys’ club of democracies” could spell “big trouble”, since it will be seen as democracies against China.

The latest numbers show that imposing a painful lockdown early is better than a series of softer stop-and-go measures, said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist of the Centre for European Reform.“Containing the virus effectively and in a timely fashion is what’s best for the economy in the medium run,” he said.