Press

Simon Tilford, deputy director of pro-EU think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said the markets would be scrutinising the government’s actions closely. “They’ve had a honeymoon, and it’s very clearly over,” he said. “It’s pretty clear that of the leading members of the government, only Philip Hammond understands the gravity of the situation.” He added: “What’s really spooked people is the suspicion that they really don’t know what they’re doing.”

"Many Brexiters claim that the toughness of the 27 is merely an opening stance, and that, when talks commence, economic self-interest will push them to soften," wrote Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. "But that may be wishful thinking."

Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform thinktank said in a research paper last week that this was partly because of a rising fear of Eurosceptic populism. "A lot of British politicians believe that the hard line of the 27 is merely an opening stance,” Grant said. “Rather more Britons assume that, in the end, Angela Merkel will look after the UK. But for Merkel, the interests of the EU come first.

John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, tells me the UK offer will make little difference to the chance of an interim deal. “Berlin insists that budget payments will not allow Britain to pick and choose,” he says. “And if we consider that the UK’s net contribution would be spread between the other net contributors, it’s not a game changer.”

Patrząc od strony politycznej, unijna praktyka pokazuje że dobrze jest, jeśli jest jednomyślność. Tym bardziej, że jego zadaniem jest wypracowywanie kompromisów i reprezentowanie stanowiska rządów państw członkowskich - mówi WP Agata Gostyńska, analityk Centre for European Reform w Londynie. - Ostatecznie dużo będzie zależeć od tego, czy zostanie zaproponowany kontrkandydat, i czy Polska będzie jedynym państwem sprzeciwiającym się wyborowi Tuska - dodaje.

Hammond seems to have a well-read advisory team. This bit of the speech seemed to have been written in direct response to Simon Tilford’s pamphlet on Britain’s mediocre economy, published last week (picked up in Free Lunch and later by Martin Wolf). Hammond pointed out that labour productivity in Britain is worse not just than that of the US and Germany, but also France and Italy. He pointed out that changing this requires greater investment in infrastructure and skills. And he highlighted the large disparity in prosperity between different regions of the UK. It was as if he was ticking boxes set out by Tilford, since these were the main headings in the pamphlet.

As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform argues in a paper out this week: "British negotiators need to understand why the 27 are taking such a tough line on the four freedoms. Their obduracy is based on more than the attachment of EU politicians and officials to conservative, traditional thinking.