Press

Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, believes the EU will wait until the US Trade Commission rules on last week’s decision, probably early next year, before showing its hand: “But the EU will also have a choice. It could see this as an opportunity to step in and demonstrate to the British the benefits of being members of a big market and a strong trade policy, and to expose the Brexiteers and their inability to act. On the other hand, they might decide this is a good opportunity to hang the British out to dry and teach them a lesson, exposing how vulnerable Britain is going to be in a post-Brexit world.”

Ms Leadsom, an ardent Brexiteer, told the Centre for European Reform (CER) fringe event she would remain in the cabinet “as long as the Prime Minister wants” after she diverged from Tory policy by saying the UK would take back control of its “money, borders, laws” by its official exit from the bloc in 2019.

On the threat of a Trump trade war, Simon Tilford at the CER warns the White House's escalation is just a taste of things to come for post-Brexit Britain: "Brexiters assume Britain will face a benign international environment once freed from the EU to take advantage of open markets elsewhere. They take for granted that the UK would be able to rely on the US underwriting the global trading system. This was always naive, but has become delusional with the election of Donald Trump."

The EU and single market are a “core national interest” for Germany, “essential to its stability, security and prosperity”, said Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform. All major parties and most voters bar the 13% who cast their ballots for the anti-immigrant AfD want more EU cooperation, not less.

Christian Odendahl, the senior economist at the Centre for European Reform in Berlin, said that there was still a "fundamental difference" in view between France and Germany, which is demanding that any burden-sharing must be accompanied by measures to tighten control over national fiscal policies."I don’t think his eurozone reforms will go very far now," Mr Odendahl predicted. "Macron will be be disappointed."

Sophia Besch, research fellow at the CER, said the German elections will not affect the outcome of Brexit because all the parties share a similar stance. She said: "All major German parties want to maintain close economic and political ties to Britain post-Brexit, and limit the economic fallout. "But Germans are also adamant that there will be no cherry-picking by the British after Brexit, that means no selective participation in the single market."