Press

"El hecho de que haya un aumento de presupuesto para temas de inmigración no va a desbloquear las cuotas. No creo que arrojar dinero al problema vaya a resolver nada. El sistema de cuotas, tal y como lo conocemos, está muerto ahora mismo y va a ser muy difícil desbloquearlo", responde a este periódico Camino Mortera, investigadora experta en temas migratorios del Centre for European Reform.

“The EU can take steps to mitigate the impact of the sanctions,” said Luigi Scazzieri of the London-based Centre for European Reform. “But overall, companies will be scared. They will also prioritize their business with the US.”

“The debate between the UK and the EU over British participation in the EU’s space programme ‘Galileo’ shows how difficult it will be to disentangle economic and security interests during Brexit negotiations.” (Sophia Besch at the Centre for European Reform)

After Brexit, Britain faces exclusion from the most militarily sensitive encrypted part of Galileo. That reflects high-minded worries over data security, but also low-minded hopes of hoovering up lost British contracts. As Sophia Besch of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, notes, this shows how petty rivalries risk damaging broader co-operation in defence and security. The stakes could hardly be higher.

Agata Gostynska-Jakubowska raised with us the example of the declaration the EU concluded with New Zealand in 2017 ahead of trade negotiations. A document of 14 pages, it mentions numerous areas of co-operation, from global and regional security to movement of people, development policy, fisheries, transport, and people-to-people contact, but it remains very general. She described it as “more an intention of both parties to say, “We share common values, this is the intention we have and these are the goals we want to achieve”,” adding that “it will be more binding when it comes to means than when it comes to results.”

The Centre for European Reform finds that this alone reduced the German unemployment rate by 1.5 percentage points. If these opportunities are not seized, there is a risk of political instability and economic growth failing to reach its potential.

“The EU’s best bet is to spread the pain fairly with a balanced combination of spending cuts and increased contributions,” Noah Gordon from the London-based Centre for European Reform said in an April 24 report 'The EU budget after Brexit: Reform not revolution'.

Customs Union membership is “a half-way house”, says Sam Lowe, trade expert at the Centre for European Reform. “The idea (put about by ministers) is that being in the customs union would prevent Britain from having its own independent trade strategy, which isn’t exactly true. A customs union doesn’t cover a lot of areas,” says Lowe. He adds that it “isn’t an arrangement that is appealing to any other member-state”.