Press

Iain Begg sets out the problem lucidly in this article for the Centre for European Reform think-tank. Somehow, the EU must repay the debt incurred under the recovery fund. But will national governments be willing to pay more into the EU budget to do that? Will they approve the European Commission’s proposals for the EU to raise new forms of revenue on its own?

Ian Bond, a foreign policy analyst and Russia specialist at the Centre for European Reform, said Brussels could go further. "What the EU is talking about is not seizing the principal - but using the interest [from frozen Russian assets], which might amount to seven or $8 billion a year and using that for the benefit of Ukraine," Bond told VOA.

That reality is central to the observation made by John Springford of the Centre for European Reform in his contribution to an excellent collection of essays on Labour and the economy produced by the Social Market Foundation think-tank (worth your time). Springford makes the obvious point that given the political constraints on alignment and not joining the EU single market and customs union, Labour is unlikely to offer “a dramatically different change of direction” if it wins power at the next general election.

„Es scheint, dass wir ein bisschen zu sehr schwarzmalen“, sagt Wirtschaftswissenschaftler Sander Tordoir. Aber er sieht auch die Gefahr, dass China und die USA ihre Vormachtstellung ausnutzen, um Europa zu spalten.

John Springford, associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that if the full 22.5 per cent boost to exports was realised, it would translate to an increase of about £2bn in UK agrifood exports to the EU, based on 2023 food exports of £8.6bn to the bloc.
“That’s not nothing, and would be helpful to British food producers, but it is a small boost when compared to total export volumes to the EU, which amounted to £150bn in 2023,” he added.