Press

Simon Tilford, chief economist at the London based Centre for European Reform think-tank, says Merkel's brinkmanship is understandable given the political risks of Germany's conceding too soon but that she cannot hold out indefinitely. "It is implausible that Greece could get through the rest of this year unaided," he says. "Ultimately, the Germans will put something on the table. They will always defend the stability of the euro."

"The sums involved are quite large, and no one knows quite how much of that gap the IMF can fill," said Philip Whyte, an economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Even 10 or 11 billion euros would be a big help," he said, but it would need to be supplemented by some form of European loan, bilateral or collective, particularly with Greece needing to roll over an additional $44 billion later this year.

"Greece has to roll over a lot of money in April and May. It might manage to do that but the idea that it could get through the rest of this year unaided is pretty implausible," said Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "There is pressure now to agree to something at the summit but it has to be something that Germany can accept and also prevents Greece going (directly) to the IMF. It will be hard."

"The creation and enlargement of the EU was one of Europe's biggest achievements, but now its inability to speak as one, and its failure to agree on how to tackle its underlying economic and social challenges, is undermining Europe's standing and potentially leading it into a period of decline," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.

The CER's Charles Grant told reporters that the countries ignored advice from the European Union's executive to overhaul their economies by making labour markets more flexible and knocking down barriers that protect some businesses or sectors from rivalry. If the four nations had been "better pupils and swallowed the medicine, they wouldn't be in the trouble they are today," Grant said.

"I don't see such a treaty change ever being agreed," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, a London think-tank. "Other member states will not accede to this in the absence of any recognition on the part of the Germans that they will need to amend their economic strategy if the stability of the euro zone is not to be compromised."

"I find it sinister and silly, it is a complete overreaction," said Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform, a pro-European Union research institute in London. "There is a certain school of thought in continental Europe that everything is always the fault of hedge funds." Schaeuble's comments reflected "a longstanding paranoia about the Anglo-Saxon model of capitalism."

It has gone really surprisingly well, for the simple reason that it is so relentlessly targeted on this perennial problem that has bedevilled British education for so long for generations, which is the link between social deprivation and educational underperformance, a link which is pretty well stronger than almost anywhere else in Europe. I would like to think people also recognise this is not something I have just alighted on out of nowhere; I first wrote or co-authored a pamphlet about this for the Centre for European Reform. … some nine years ago.

"The concern over speculation is obscuring the underlying issue that Greece and other nations have very precarious fiscal positions," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.