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Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform think-tank said Britain’s desire for full control of domestic regulation and trade policy will significantly limit the scope of any deal.“At best, the EU and UK are on course to conclude a free trade agreement that removes all tariffs and quotas, but creates significant new administrative and regulatory barriers to trade in both goods and services,” he said.

Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform think-tank points to Japan, Australia and New Zealand as partners that might set a template for other deals. The government is keen on Japan, though one concern is that it cannot do better than the EU since the terms of the EU’s deal requires it to get the same benefits.

UE będzie obstawać przy swoich priorytetach, czyli handlu i współpracy w dziedzinie bezpieczeństwa. Bo to obszary, w których brak porozumienia miałby najpoważniejsze konsekwencje – mówi „Rzeczpospolitej" Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, ekspertka think tanku Centre for European.

Johnson might now simply be hoping "there are no precipitous statements from the US saying that's it, this love affair is at an end", said Ian Bond of London's Centre for European Reform.Bond pointed out that US officials had repeatedly warned how Huawei's inclusion in Britain's 5G rollout could force Washington to stop sharing intelligence with London.

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank and a committee member of the UK Trade Forum, tells GTR that of the government’s target markets there are good reasons to prioritise Japan. “The US is going to be really tough, while Australia and New Zealand are nice to have but not hugely economically significant,” he says.

The broad optimism of Brexit-supporting economists is countered by their opponents, who are rather larger in number. John Springford, chief economist of the Centre for European Reform, said the expectation of a big improvement in the economy from Brexit was “silly”. “The story that now you’ve got certainty, investment comes flooding back [doesn’t work],” he said, “because what you’ve got certainty about is a pretty hard outcome”. This would depress activity at companies dependent on free movement of people or frictionless goods trade, he added.

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, Centre for European Reform (CER) analyst, has a similar opinion. - The formal exit of Great Britain from the Union is not the end of the Brexit saga, but only the beginning. At the same time, she points out that the Community began to prepare for this stage much earlier than London, which gives Brussels an advantage at the very beginning. - Although the nature of the talks will change fundamentally, the EU side has kept the negotiation team with Michel Barnier at the forefront unchanged.

“The NHS is a religion in the UK. That’s where the real red line is,” said Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. “If the U.S. is saying: ‘Pay more for medicine,’ that’s quite difficult to get past the Treasury and the taxpayers.”