Press

"The government has to decide what to ask for in phase two, which is going to be very difficult in itself," said Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform. "The British government is going to find that whatever it asks for, the EU is going to be tough," he told AFP, adding: "I think there's going to be a massive crisis."

"It comes down to the fact that countries have different economic models, different sets of existing ties to the UK, different strategic interests," Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska, senior research fellow at the London-based think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said in an interview. “The second phase of negotiations will be much more challenging for both the UK and the EU and it will be much more difficult for the EU to remain aligned.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “The real question is whether Tory MPs who are willing to rebel on an issue of process are ready to rebel on an issue of substance like the customs union.”

Charles Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform, said the UK will “at best” get a “Canada plus” deal but the EU will make Britain pay a price for it. Speaking on BBC Newsnight, he said: “They say it’s Norway or Canada, the British are probably going to ask for something that is neither. “Based on regularity alignment, we’d be almost in the single market, we’d be aligned with EU rules.” Mr Grant warned that if the UK changed the rules the EU would “punish us a bit” by removing access to the single market.

"The biggest gain for Germany will come if European migrants choose to work there, mitigating its growing shortage of workers, instead of in Britain."(Christian Odendahl and John Springford, Centre for European Reform)

“I think there’s definitely a heightened sensitivity about this kind of coverage. There’s a strong thread of jingoism in the reaction which arises when (Brexiteers) are feeling insecure,” says economist Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “But if Britain is so confident why react so strongly?”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “It suits both the UK government and the EU to pretend that the transition will last only about two years. In fact – as officials on both sides will admit in their more candid moments – it will have to be much longer. Building the border infrastructure at Channel ports will take several years, as will the new IT systems required for customs and registering EU immigrants. Above all, the negotiation of the future relationship – covering trade, research, security, defence and foreign policy – will take at least five years. So any attempt to limit the transition to two years would lead to a cliff-edge – of Britain leaving the single market without new arrangements being in place.”