Press

There is plenty of evidence that the UK economy has suffered since the vote (as John Springford spells out in this new report).

The damage to the U.K. economy caused by the vote to leave the European Union two years ago already exceeds the size of the budget contributions Britain will be able to claw back when it finally leaves the bloc, according to an economic study by the Centre for European Reform.
Uncertainty caused by Brexit has already caused a 2.1 percent dip in economic output, even before Britain’s departure next March, the CER said late Friday in an emailed statement. That’s cost the public finances 23 billion pounds ($30 billion) in lost tax revenue, the think tank said

The only way to resolve the Irish border problem and prevent disruption of manufacturers' supply chains is for the UK to remain in the Single Market for goods, the head of a leading think tank has claimed. Writing for the Financial Times, Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, claimed that "it is a proposal under current consideration, thanks to the specific requirements of the Irish border as well as a desire to protect EU-UK trade".

Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, said on Wednesday that a single market for goods was the only way to resolve the Irish border problem and prevent disruption of manufacturers’ supply chains. However, he acknowledged the move would cross the prime minister’s red lines on freedom of movement and would require a degree of oversight by the European Court of Justice.

Is Theresa May about to propose that the UK should stay in Europe’s single market for goods? ... The question was raised by Ivan Rogers, the former UK ambassador to the EU, at the end of his recent Glasgow speech. It was touched on by Martin Wolf in a recent column. It was fully discussed yesterday by Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform in an FT op-ed which, like the other pieces, is required reading.

This op-ed in the FT by the well-informed director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Charles Grant, predicts Theresa May is about to request customs union membership for UK goods, but not services. He warns Europe may not be open to the idea, and that the plan may trigger a Cabinet resignation or two. Worth your time.

“For now, the odd couple of Mr Johnson and Mr Barnier is working to keep Britain out of the single market for goods. But a fightback may be approaching in both Britain and other EU countries from those who are prepared to compromise on legal principles and wish to maximise future trade.” (Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, in the FT).

The challenges facing Britain on justice and home affairs have been comprehensively set out in a paper by Camino Mortera-Martinez, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. She says that there are three broad areas where Britain wants things to stay the same. These are: access to EU law enforcement databases, EU measures to support practical law enforcement co-operation such as the European Arrest Warrant, and co-operation through EU agencies such as Europol and Eurojust.

Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the CER think-tank, said Merkel has become more isolated on the European stage but her patience and experience could ensure her political survival. “She is fighting various fires in Europe. She has the Dutch and the northern and Scandinavian countries on her side, but she is certainly not strong enough to be called the undisputed leader of Europe as she might have been," Besch added. “She’s great at surviving these things, in part because of her calm approach, which is in stark contrast to the posturing in the CSU and the ‘Merkel must go’ faction of the CDU."