Press
In shadow of Trump, Putin and Orbán, EU struggles to get its act together on Ukraine
01 February 2024
Politico
“The underlying question is: what does Orbán really want?” said Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform. “Does he want money? Or does he have bigger political goals to disrupt the EU, for example to please Putin?”
Europe must be ready for Trump 2025
01 February 2024
Yorkshire Bylines
Donald Trump is not guaranteed to win the US presidential election in November 2024, but he has a much better chance than any man facing 91 criminal charges and four trials has a right to expect.
Brexit: where we are four years on
31 January 2024
The Week
Taken together, said John Springford of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, the missed growth in goods and services trade account for "about a £23 billion quarterly hit" to UK exports, which is consistent with a GDP reduction of 4%-5% compared to a Britain that had remained.
With Hungary blocking Ukraine aid, EU desperate for workarounds
31 January 2024
The Washington Post
“I don’t believe Article 7, with the current conversation that we have, is actually realistic,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, who leads the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform.
“You have to be very careful with the kind of things that you do to one member state,” she added, “(a) because of the backlash, and (b) because it has to be effective.”
“You have to be very careful with the kind of things that you do to one member state,” she added, “(a) because of the backlash, and (b) because it has to be effective.”
EU cuts climate and foreign aid to finance war, borders
31 January 2024
EU Observer
The so-called 'sovereignty fund', which was initially announced as a means to counter the €720bn in energy and climate finance under the US Inflation Reduction Act, has been slashed to a €1.5bn financing tool mainly for the procurement of ammunition, later described on social media by Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform as a "Micky Mouse budget."
EU set for crucial summit on Ukraine aid as Hungary accuses bloc of 'blackmail'
31 January 2024
Voice of America
The EU financial assistance is vital for Kyiv, said Luigi Scazzieri with the Centre for European Reform. “That’s essentially budget support that Ukraine needs to stay in the war and to stay solvent. But it doesn’t aim to increase its military capacity. There is a separate budget line for that — that is also being held up by Hungary — and that will be discussed, as well. And that is a 5 billion [euro] top-up to a common fund that the EU has to supply weapons to Ukraine,” he told VOA.
CER Podcast: Europe's defence production challenge
31 January 2024
Camille Grand and Luigi Scazzieri discuss European defence.
Four years of denial have left the UK in chaos
31 January 2024
The New European
Post-pandemic, the UK remains the only major rich economy that is smaller than it was beforehand. Another report by the Centre for European Reform revealed that the UK’s goods trade is 7% lower, and investment 11% lower than it would have been had the Remain campaign won in 2016.
Alemania debe tomarse más en serio la desvinculación de la UE de China
30 January 2024
El Pais
La considerable ventaja de Donald Trump en las encuestas sobre el presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, es un presagio de dolor económico para Europa, sobre todo para la mayor economía del continente.
How Brussels can precision-tune its instruments of trade conflict
29 January 2024
Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform solves two paradoxes about how the UK’s trade performance apparently hasn’t suffered from Brexit the way you might have predicted.
Europe is heading for perilous waters, and its leaders are dozing at the tiller
27 January 2024
The Observer
Trump’s resurrection “would endanger European interests but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks,” warned Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform. Defence, transatlantic economic relations and Trump’s disdain for the rules-based international order were looming problem areas.
Preparing Europe for Trump 2.0
27 January 2024
Financial Times
In this article for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Ian Bond sets out some fairly drastic options for Europe if Trump were to pull the plug on Ukraine: "Nato and EU members that take defence seriously should be war-gaming not only how to save Ukraine, but how to respond to an attack on an EU or Nato member in the event that the US decided to remain aloof.
‘Very damaging’: ECB policy fuels fears for German economy
27 January 2024
EurActiv
Andresen’s comments were echoed by Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, who told Euractiv that “most of the data suggests that the ECB should cut aggressively and rather soon”, although he didn’t expect the ECB to actually cut rates “until April or June”.Tordoir also pointed to studies – including by the ECB itself – which suggest that inflation in the eurozone, unlike in the US, is largely supply- instead of demand-driven.
Trump 2.0 – Wie sich Europa auf ein Comeback des Ex-Präsidenten vorbereiten kann
26 January 2024
Handelsblatt
Die drei Ökonomen Shahin Vallee, Sebastian de Quant und Sander Tordoir fordern in einem Aufsatz noch etwas anderes: Dass Europa auch wegen eines unter Trump drohenden US-chinesischen Handelskriegs noch schneller wirtschaftlich unabhängiger von China werden müsse.
Spanish workers leaving UK in droves blaming Brexit and cost of living
25 January 2024
iNews
Brexit led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the labour force as foreign workers left the UK, according to a report published last January by think-tank the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe. In hospitality and the food sector, it was four per cent or 67,000, while construction experienced a two per cent drop.
EU reveals new economic security plan to resist ‘fierce’ Chinese tech competition
25 January 2024
EurActiv
Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, similarly praised the package’s general sentiment but criticised it for proposing “too much of the same soft coordination that has failed us so far”.“I think directionally, it makes sense what they’re doing,” Tordoir told Euractiv. “They’re focussed on the right fault lines in the toolkit, like export controls and FDI screening, where Europe has been most vulnerable, fragmented.”
Brexit is leading to growing Balkanisation for business
25 January 2024
Financial Times
This week’s chart is a newsletter exclusive and comes courtesy of John Springford, at the Centre for European Reform. It addresses one of the conundrums of post-Brexit trade patterns that have perplexed researchers and economists.Here’s the question Springford poses: “The UK’s goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come?”
Germany needs to take the EU's de-risking from China more seriously
24 January 2024
Internationale Politik Quarterly
With another Trump presidency in the offing, Europe and Germany need to accelerate their efforts to reduce their economic dependencies on China.
Indo-Pacific calling: Where is the US heading and what does it mean for Europe?
24 January 2024
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards the Indo-Pacific. What are the implications for the transatlantic relationship?
Europa ist auf Trump nicht vorbereitet
23 January 2024
Die Zeit
Exportabhängigkeit und Handelsüberschuss: Die Probleme zwischen der EU und China sind schon groß genug. Trump könnte die europäische Wirtschaft in die Krise stürzen.