Press

One crucial development, according to Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform (CER) , a think-tank, is the changing relationship with China. In the 2000s and 2010s Germany was perfectly placed to satisfy Chinese appetites for its cars, chemicals and precision-engineered widgets: goods exports to China rose by 34% between 2015 and 2020, even as those to other countries fell. As recently as 2020 China was a net importer of cars but last year it became the world’s largest exporter.

Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, stated that the EU is actively seeking solutions to enhance trade defences, anticipating a possible increase in redirected Chinese exports. However, she also cautioned that stricter restrictions on Chinese technology imports could potentially disrupt the EU’s transition to greener technologies. By enforcing stringent trade measures in the name of innovation support, the EU risks raising prices, which may slow down consumer adoption of electric vehicles and other clean technologies.

Certainly, there may be some political upside to basking in reflected Trumpian glory. “The coming Trump presidency will most probably embolden Europe’s far right and illiberal actors,” concluded experts at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, reflected on the potential trajectory of US-European relations under Trump’s second term. “In Trump’s first term he had a number of ‘traditional’ Republicans in key positions around him, able to steer his foreign policy at least to some extent. It seems likely that in his second term there will be fewer restraints on him. Given his stated views on NATO and the EU, that poses serious risks for Europe’s security and prosperity.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said: “[Mandelson] would be very good, he understands trade. The Blairites when they were running the country managed to be pro-EU and Atlanticist at the same time – it was the hallmark of Jonathan Powell, Peter Mandelson, David Miliband and Tony Blair.“It is going to be more difficult to do that now than it was when Bill Clinton and George Bush Jr were in power. The danger for Labour is that Trump quite likes Britain but less so the EU.

Hinzu kommt, dass die aggressive Industriepolitik von Joe Biden zu einer Ausweitung der Fertigungskapazität in den Vereinigten Staaten geführt hat, von der Trump in den kommenden Jahren profitieren dürfte, wie das Centre for European Reform argumentiert.