Research
We are not out of the woods by a long shot
25 July 2011
Irish Independent
"The single biggest mistake by Europe was the decision to impose budget targets on Ireland, Greece and Portugal that were impossible to meet," said Simon Tilford, chief economist with London-based think-tank the Centre for European Reform (CER). "The economics of those budget targets were nonsensical. To meet those targets, all three countries have had to cut public spending by unprecedented amounts -- but this hasn't put those countries back on a sustainable fiscal path.
Britain wants tighter eurozone – without Britain
24 July 2011
Financial Times
"There's a danger that if nearly all heads of government meet without Britain to discuss economic questions, Britain's liberal voice will be absent," says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.
Bailout fatigue in the eurozone
22 July 2011
The Australian
Analysts including Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform think-tank have suggested Greece is economically too weak to sustain euro membership.
They agree on peat bogs
21 July 2011
The Economist
Barack Obama's "reset" with Russia smooths things for Germany, and resets in Polish-German and Polish-Russian relations make "a huge difference," says Katinka Barysch of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
Beyond Greece, Europe fears financial contagion in Italy and Spain
19 July 2011
New York Times
"To see those yields on highly developed countries like Italy jump so fast has really focused minds," said Simon Tilford, chief economist for the Centre for European Reform in London. "Merkel is now in a very difficult position The Germans are now alive to the risk in ways they weren't before. For all the derision about Silvio Berlusconi, Italy is core Europe and has very strong ties to Germany and France."
Eurozone exit could restore Greek competitiveness
17 July 2011
Financial Times
"Short of the eurozone agreeing a fully-fledged transfer union, it is hard to see how Greece can remain in the eurozone," says Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "Leaving would be fraught with risk but at least it would hold out the possibility of economic growth and escape from the current debt trap."
Europe in Blunderland
16 July 2011
Hindustan Times
"The structural reforms were necessary but not sufficient — with no plans to boost growth, the debt situation worsened," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. "Greece needs a Marshall Plan to encourage growth." Public opinion in debt-ridden European economies, according to Grant, is becoming a "new and dangerous" factor.
European leaders take aim at rating agencies
13 July 2011
The Prague Post
"There is no doubt the rating agencies were wrong in 2008," said Simon Tilford, chief economist with the Centre for European Reform in London. "But now the agencies are doing the eurozone a favor by exposing the unsustainability of these plans moving forward. If a private-sector one emerges, great," Tilford said. "But if we are talking about a rating agency funded with public money, it will have no more credibility than a rating issued by the Chinese government."
Austria to ban import of nuclear fuelled energy
13 July 2011
The Prague Post
"Renewables are the best form of electricity, but it will probably take the EU a long time - several decades - to be 100 per cent reliant on renewables," said Stephen Tindale, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London. "Before then, we need a low carbon bridge to get [away] from dependence on oil and coal. My advice to the Czech government would be to continue to use nuclear, because it is a low carbon source for significant amounts of electricity Germany is supposed to reach 18 per cent of total energy from renewables by 2020 based on EU targets.
Understanding US-Czech relations on missile defence
13 July 2011
ISN Insights
"The Czechs tell me that the role of the facility, which was going to be based there, was gradually diminishing," said Tomas Valasek, director of foreign policy and defense at the Centre for European Reform. "It was not going to be a central part of the missile defence system at all, which is what the Czechs would have liked. So to say that Vondra rejected ABMS as such is nonsense – if anything, he wanted to be a more integral part of it.
European leaders must step up their game
11 July 2011
Financial Times
George Soros is right that Germany's new approach to Europe bears some responsibility for the eurozone crisis. Germany's leaders are finding it hard to consider broader European rather than immediate national interests.
Europe's state of anxiety
05 July 2011
BBC
Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform describes the government's policy towards Europe as "doing as little as possible". He believes British Prime Minister David Cameron is guided by one simple maxim: "Do not awaken the sleeping dogs of Conservative euroscepticism." He questions whether the British are missing a trick and should be part of the emerging conversation.
Europe's central bank faces credibility test
02 July 2011
The Wall Street Journal
"The ECB has been flexing its muscles" after being "very much on the back foot last year," said Philip Whyte, an analyst at the London-based Centre for European Reform. Still, "the threat the ECB is wielding (to reject Greek bonds) is a threat you might say it can never actually carry through given the consequences it would unleash."
Greece passes austerity package
29 June 2011
Los Angeles Times
"The Greeks have actually pulled off an unprecedented amount of fiscal austerity, but it's had a bigger knock-on effect on their economy than was projected," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. "They're deep in a debt trap. Further cuts in public spending are just compounding the underlying problem in the economy, which is a huge lack of economic activity."
Turkey, EU search for way forward
28 June 2011
SETimes
Katinka Barysch, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform, warns that the EU's leverage may be eroding. "Turks have a point when they ask why it should implement the difficult steps needed for opening while EU politicians say that Turkey should not become a full member of the club. Turkey's growing self-confidence as a regional power probably makes many Turks feel that they have an alternative to the EU." Meanwhile, Barysch added, "the EU looks less appealing now that it is bogged down in the eurozone debt crisis.
Christine Lagarde named IMF head
28 June 2011
The Guardian
Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said: "There's no doubt she is a talented politician, but I don't think this was the right choice for Europe or the IMF." He believed that the IMF's policy in Greece, supported by Lagarde, had failed, and appointing another European to the IMF sent the wrong signal to the rest of the world. "You can't demand that these countries show greater responsibilities while continuing to exclude them from the top jobs."
US backs Lagarde to lead IMF
28 June 2011
New York Times
"For the IMF to be devoting so much financial and human capital to try to combat a problem in Europe which is largely political in origin and can only be solved by political agreement is controversial," said Simon Tilford, the chief economist of the Centre for European Reform in London. "It threatens the IMF's credibility. There is a risk that her perceived objectivity will be brought into question because of this," Mr Tilford said.
EU ties fray over debt crisis, border control
24 June 2011
Los Angeles Times
"European integration was a top-down [enterprise]: If you build it, they will come," said Hugo Brady, an analyst with the London-based Centre for European Reform. "People did make use of the benefits it brought. But it didn't mean that they moved any closer culturally or on the organisation of society. We have some commonality, but we're not as alike as people thought." Even if the euro pulls through its crisis, the trauma of the experience will probably cool the dreams of ever-closer co-operation and expanding European power, Brady said.
Some Greeks fear government is selling nation
22 June 2011
New York Times
"The Greeks have been told to accept more of the medicine that has already failed to treat the disease," said Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform in London. The Greeks have already reduced their deficit by five percentage points of the gross domestic product, "unprecedented cuts in a modern economy ... But the cuts have had a much stronger negative impact on the economy than the troika imagined, and fiscal austerity has pushed the economy deep into recession. Debt can only be paid out of income, and that means growth."
Obama moves toward exit from Afghanistan
22 June 2011
Reuters
"I don't see how this ends in anything other than a run to the exit. I cannot think of one European country that wants to be in Afghanistan more than the Americans," said Tomas Valasek of the Centre for European Reform in London. "What will be important is what happens in two or three years from now If Obama gets re-elected, and it all goes wrong, and Kabul has turned into another Mogadishu - then he would clearly have some explaining to do."