Research

However, as was pointed out here only last week, citing analysis published by the Centre for European Reform, if growth is calculated with reference to what things cost in each county and what the money can actually buy, then the UK is behind Germany, Spain and France among the European countries, to say nothing of those G7 counties across the Atlantic — the USA and Canada.

Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform has repeatedly argued we are heading for a Canada Trade Deal with some additions. Brexiteer ministers would argue we can do much better than that because of various entanglements that allow us to improve our bargaining position.

The possibility that Deutsche could run short of capital if it is overwhelmed by penalties puts Berlin in a more vulnerable position than before, possibly undermining any push for a tough solution for Italy. "They have taken a very doctrinaire line with the Italians," said Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "Maybe this gives Germany cover to soften their line."

Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform, says the reason the EU is taking such a tough stance — not only rejecting pre-negotiation but also insisting that the UK cannot have the single market without freedom of movement — is fear of populism.

Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform likens it to a divorce settlement, "dividing up the properties, institutions and pension rights, and dealing with budget payments and ... the rights of UK citizens in the EU and vice versa".

For the foreseeable future, GDP per person in places like India and China will be lower than the EU’s, points out John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank. It will be many years before these countries’ citizens are rich enough to demand the same sorts of goods and services from Britain as the EU does.

Talking Britain down: Martin Wolf draws attention to the myriad flaws of the British economy in this piece. The piece relies on a paper by Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform, which we linked to the other day.

John Springford, head of research at the Centre for European Reform, said it was hard to see TTIP talks resuming in 2017. "The window of opportunity for getting TTIP done was before we got into the US election campaign, and certainly before the French and German elections got under way [in 2017]. I think that window of opportunity is now closed."

On no issue is this state of limbo more dangerous than migration. With civil wars still raging in the Middle East, any number of sparks could see the crisis flare up again with startling intensity. “There is a sense of calm before the storm,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, a research fellow and expert on free movement at the Centre of European Reform, a think-tank. As it stands, she told TWW, the bloc would be ill-equipped to withstand such an eventuality. The current solutions, though hard-fought, are sticking plasters; the serious treatment is yet to come.