Research

What does it cost to leave the EU?

Alex Barker
06 February 2017
Financial Times
If Brexit talks collapse the most likely reason will be money. Back in November, the FT first reported that Britain would be served an exit bill of up to €60bn. Now in a paper for the Centre for European Reform, I’ve tried to explain the detailed calculations, the law behind it, and the volatile budget politics that may soon engulf Westminster and Brussels. You can see the full version here.

Split by 'Brexit' May and Merkel diverge on wider issues, too

05 February 2017
The New York Times
“They are both serious people who don’t grandstand, who don’t play for the gallery,” said Charles Grant, the director of the London-based Centre for European Reform.

Sunday Politics: Brexit bill

05 February 2017
Charles Grant, director of the CER and Henry Newman, director of Open Europe speak to Andrew Neil on Sunday Politics about the bill for Brexit. (From 12.00 mins)
 
EU-Tripoli Migrant Deal Ignores Political Chaos in Libya, Analysts Warn

Voice of America: EU-Tripoli Migrant Deal Ignores Political Chaos in Libya, Analysts Warn

04 February 2017
Luigi Scazzieri talks to Voice of America about the EU's migrant deal with Libya.

May's warm relations with Trump chill EU ties

02 February 2017
Marketplace
I think the reception she’s going to get in Malta is going to be pretty frosty,” said John Springford of the Centre for European Reform. He said most EU leaders don’t appreciate May cozying up to the new president, who has just been described by the head of the European Council as one of the major threats to the future of the EU — along with China, Russia and radical Islam. Springford said that Trump’s offer of a free trade deal with Britain will hinder her Brexit negotiations.

For Europe, there's a new threat in town: The US

02 February 2017
The New York Times
The French, who are being tough on a British withdrawal and are deeply disconcerted by Mr Trump, see him as a bigger threat to European cohesion, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “They see the three great world powers — Russia, China and now the US — wanting to destroy the EU,” he said. One impact of Mr Trump that Mr Tusk is clearly hoping for, Mr Grant said, is “to reinforce a feeling of solidarity among mainstream European politicians.”

MEPs Brexit weapon

Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska
02 February 2017
Financial Times
A fine summary of the European Parliament’s role in the Brexit process from the Centre for European Reform. Although MEPs officially have no say over the Article 50 terms themselves, they can still block the deal outright, leaving a blunt but still lethal Sword of Damocles hanging over proceedings.

Keynote speech by Sir Julian King on 'Making a success of the EU's security union'

Sir Julian King
01 February 2017
Sir Julian King, European Commissioner for the Security Union, spoke at our dinner on 'Making a success of the EU's security union'.

Trump is right: Germany is running an illegal currency racket

Simon Tilford
01 February 2017
The Telegraph
“What winds everybody up is that Germany keeps pretending that these surpluses are pre-ordained. But they are the result of incentives, and governments can change incentives. German policy is set in the perceived interest of exporters at the cost of everybody else,” said Simon Tilford from the Centre for European Reform.

Europe's far-right hails US travel ban

01 February 2017
Voice of America
On the whole, Europe has been "a lot more generous" than the United States in taking in refugees and migrants, said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform. "We've been more generous in the amount of money given to support refugees in the Middle East and also in the number of people entering Europe," he added. "So Europe still has some moral standing to say, 'We've done our best to cope with the refugee crisis in the Middle East.'"

May manages to further alienate EU with Trump as her Brexit best buddy

31 January 2017
The Guardian
The Centre for European Reform’s Charles Grant put it this way: "The more that British ministers cosy up to Trump and avoid criticising his worst excesses, and the more the president’s pronouncements ... reveal a worldview far from that of the Europeans (including the British), the more alien the British appear to other Europeans, and the more their soft power erodes."

Will the Trump factor rock Brexit?

30 January 2017
Financial Times
As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform argued last week: "The more that British ministers cosy up to Trump and avoid criticising his worst excesses . . . the more alien the British appear to other Europeans, and the more their soft power erodes."

EU leaders say US travel ban not in line with European standards

30 January 2017
Deutsche Welle
The director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, Ian Bond, suggests that Europe's first order of business is not to overreact - but that it should initiate formal diplomatic contact to find out just what the new policy will mean as the practical effects sink in."It is not unreasonable for the US to want to protect itself," Bond said in an interview with DW, "There is a terrorist threat and some of the countries on this list of seven are pretty much ungoverned spaces" where it would be hard ensure that a government, if it exists, has vetted people before issuing passports.

A smooth Brexit ride so far, but watch for bumps

Simon Tilford
29 January 2017
The Sunday Times
Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform puts it: "The British economy has not weathered the Brexit storm. It is just that the calm before the storm has lasted a bit longer than many had assumed. There is no reason to think Britain will escape serious and permanent damage to its foreign trade and investment and hence living standards."

CER podcast: Rob Wainwright and Camino Mortera-Martinez on Europol and UK-EU security co-operation

Camino Mortera-Martinez, Rob Wainwright
27 January 2017
Camino Mortera-Martinez talks to Rob Wainwright about the work of Europol on counter-terrorism and migration, the future of his agency and the effects of Brexit on UK-EU security co-operation.

Brexit-Kämpferin May hofft auf Deal mit Trump

Sophia Besch
27 January 2017
ZDF heute
"Juristisch wäre das Parlament nach der Entscheidung des Obersten Gerichts gar in der Lage, den Brexit zu stoppen", erklärt Sophia Besch vom Londoner Politikberatungsinstitut "Centre for European Reform". "Oder auch ganz stark Einfluss darauf zu nehmen, dass es nicht zu einem harten Brexit kommt, den Theresa May angekündigt hat. Also raus aus dem EU-Binnenmarkt, ohne Wenn und Aber, auch wenn es der Wirtschaft schaden dürfte. Dagegen anzugehen - diesen Mut haben viele Parlamentarier verloren. Weil die Bürger in ihren Wahlkreisen vielen Abgeordneten klar gemacht haben, dass sie den Brexit wollen. Aufhalten, verwässern, verzögern, all das wäre politischer Selbstmord."

Na Brexit lonken de wereldzeeën

Rem Korteweg
27 January 2017
NRC
 “De opgave voor de Britten is enorm”, zegt, Rem Korteweg, onderzoeker bij de Centre for European Reform. “Neem die sectordeals. Volgens de geldende regels van de Wereldhandelsorganisatie mag je alleen akkoorden sluiten die betrekking hebben op alle substantiële handel tussen de verdragspartijen. Het lijkt mij niet dat enkele sectoren genoeg zijn aan de eis te voldoen.”

Theresa May faces tricky balancing act in talking trade With Trump

26 January 2017
The Wall Street Journal
“There’s a risk that if she goes too far down this route [of seeking trade deals] it just creates a toxic atmosphere,” said John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think tank that is pro-EU but advocates its reform.

What Donald Trump and Theresa May can agree on trade

Rem Korteweg
26 January 2017
Time
"It's politically very beneficial on two fronts," said Rem Korteweg, a trade expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform. "It works for Trump in that it shows he's not anti-trade and not protectionist, and…it's in the British interest right now to show that it has a hedge in Washington, whoever's in the White House."

British alignment with Trump threatens European order

26 January 2017
The New York Times
“The people at the top of our system, whether they’re politicians or officials or journalists or think tankers like me, we’re all totally focused on Brexit,” said Charles Grant, who heads the London-based Centre for European Reform. “We haven’t thought about Trump as much as we should have.”