Research
Two years after opening Germany's doors to refugees, Angela Merkel stands tall. How has she done it?
24 August 2017
The Telegraph
It seems voters have not just forgiven Merkel for the refugee crisis, they have forgotten about it as well: immigration is ranked at the bottom of the list of topics influencing this year’s election, with only 29 per cent of voters citing it as an important issue.
UK paves way for compromise over ECJ jurisdiction post-Brexit
23 August 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said: “The UK is moving towards asking for a transitional deal that would resemble membership in many respects and would include acceptance of ECJ rulings.”
RTÉ News: Theresa May insists the UK will leave ECJ jurisdiction after Brexit
23 August 2017
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to RTÉ news about court jurisdiction with the UK's withdrawal from the EU. (01.59)
Davis proposes post-Brexit dispute mechanism on EU relations
21 August 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said that from his conversations in Berlin, Paris and Brussels, the EU would be “quite prepared to live with a dispute settlement mechanism modelled on the Efta court”...
...Mr Grant said the Canada deal did not cover complex areas such as financial services, aviation and security co-operation, and he argued that the key was to set up a new court in which Britain could claim to be “an equal” to the EU.
...Mr Grant said the Canada deal did not cover complex areas such as financial services, aviation and security co-operation, and he argued that the key was to set up a new court in which Britain could claim to be “an equal” to the EU.
The end of Schulz? Former EU chief faces German election WIPEOUT
21 August 2017
The Express
Economist Christian Odendahl and Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, wrote in a joint paper: “Schulz, an outsider to Berlin politics, entered the race as a candidate promising to bring change. But the Social Democrats have failed to deliver: their programme struggles to distinguish itself from Merkel’s platform.
If the German left want to succeed, it must offer more than Merkel's status quo
18 August 2017
The Guardian
The German elections on 24th September are bound to be boring. Polls show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) leading the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) by 15 percentage points.
Hopes for European ‘safe’ bonds lean on pre-crisis techniques
17 August 2017
Financial Times
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said that despite the efforts to distance the plan from the concept of debt mutualisation, Germany was likely to regard it with suspicion.
“The Germans feel that this is a clever way of persuading them to sign up to something which at least has the potential to become debt mutualisation by the back door,” he said. “Particularly if there was an agency doing the structuring and sales of these products, the markets would perceive that as 100 per cent safe and expect a bailout if it goes wrong.”
“The Germans feel that this is a clever way of persuading them to sign up to something which at least has the potential to become debt mutualisation by the back door,” he said. “Particularly if there was an agency doing the structuring and sales of these products, the markets would perceive that as 100 per cent safe and expect a bailout if it goes wrong.”
Brexit trade talks may be reduced to as little as 10 months
17 August 2017
The Guardian
If phase two slips to the end of the year, “it is not a huge problem for the EU, they know in terms of timing they have the upper hand,” said Christian Odendahl, Berlin representative for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
Britain's Brexit papers aim to fast-track customs talks
15 August 2017
Financial Times
“The UK government knows that some of the member-states are worried about the commission’s position that transition arrangements cannot be discussed until ‘sufficient progress’ has been made on divorce arrangements and agreeing the final relationship,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “They are hoping the Nordics in particular will put pressure on Barnier to acknowledge quickly that sufficient progress has been made on those areas.”
UK to seek 'temporary customs union' after Brexit
15 August 2017
Channel News Asia
Professor Alan Winters, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex described the proposals as "vague and aspirational" - a view echoed by John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, who accused the government of "constructive ambiguity".
Ekspert: okres przejściowy sprzyja miękkiemu Brexitowi
15 August 2017
Onet Biznes [Poland]
Zawarcie w planach brytyjskiego rządu okresu przejściowego, w którym zachowane byłyby obecne przepisy dotyczące ceł, wskazuje na sukces zwolenników tzw. miękkiego Brexitu - ocenił w rozmowie z PAP John Springford z CER.
Retired Brits 'rushing to move to Spain, Portugal and France' before Brexit makes it more difficult
14 August 2017
The Mirror
But migration expert John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, warned the “golden age of British retirees heading to the Costas is probably over”. And he told the Guardian: “Retirees are expensive. There is no way Spain would allow lots of Brits to retire there and use their health system unless young Spanish people could come and work in the UK. If we don’t have free movement, it’s very unlikely we’d have retirement rights.”
Newsnight: The customs union
14 August 2017
Charles Grant speaks to Newsnight about the customs union, and what the UK is hoping to negotiate (from 5.05 mins).
Philip Hammond and Liam Fox's Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream
14 August 2017
The Guardian
The deal sketched out by the international trade secretary and the chancellor is one the EU could never agree to. Why did they go public with it?
No Britain, no missiles! EU has 'lot riding on' working with UK - ex-Macron defence aide
14 August 2017
The Express
Europe has a "lot riding on" securing continued defence co-operation with Britain after it has left the EU, the former advisor to French president Emmanuel Macron Francois Heisbourg has said in a CER podcast.
Brexit: UK retirees rushing to settle in Europe, say financial advisers
13 August 2017
The Guardian
“The golden age of British retirees heading to the Costas is probably over,” said John Springford, a migration expert who is director of research at the Centre for European Reform. He pointed to research that found that while young immigrants provided an economic boost in most OECD countries, people turned into a net drain on national finances somewhere between the age of 40 and 45.
CER podcast: François Heisbourg on Franco-German defence co-operation and the EU defence fund
11 August 2017
Sophia Besch speaks to Francois Heisbourg about the future of European defence co-operation.
Le miracle économique allemand n’est pas celui que l’on croit
08 August 2017
Le Monde
C’est ce que s’est employé à faire l’économiste allemand Christian Odendahl, membre du Centre for European Reform, un think tank européen basé à Londres. Il vient de publier une étude intitulée « Le mythe Hartz », où il fait tomber quelques idées reçues. « Beaucoup attribuent le succès économique allemand aux réformes Hartz et recommandent que le reste de l’Europe s’en inspire, détaille l’auteur. Mais il y a des raisons d’être sceptique. »
Brexit bill: No longer if, but when and how much
07 August 2017
Politico
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said such a proposal had merit and could allow the Brexit talks to progress to the next phase. “There is a strong feeling among UK and EU officials that the best way to present the Brexit bill is as payments during a transition, in return for market access,” he said. “Three years of paying about £10 billion a year would mean the UK handing over a large part of what the EU wants — not all of it, but enough to create goodwill and probably to get the EU to talk about trade.”
Germany's trade surplus
05 August 2017
Moneyweek
A paper by economist Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform questions this account of Hartz, finding that the total number of hours worked in Germany has barely increased since the end of the 1990s, while the number of low-paid jobs and of Germans at risk of poverty have both spiked during the same period.