Research
Pros and cons of customs union membership
03 April 2019
Financial Times
Sam Lowe, a leading trade expert at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, says Brexiters’ objections are overstated, since there are far more barriers to trade than tariffs, which in many cases are already low. “Being in a customs union would place no constraints on the UK’s ability to negotiate in the areas of services, intellectual property, public procurement, data and regulatory barriers to trade in goods,” he says.
Can Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn compromise on Brexit?
03 April 2019
The Economist
Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, says the leaders are split, with France’s Emmanuel Macron inclined to be tougher on Mrs May than Germany’s Angela Merkel. Mr Grant adds that EU leaders will insist that, if Britain is still a member after May 22nd, which is likely even if Mrs May and Mr Corbyn miraculously compromise in the next few days, it must take part in the European Parliament elections due on May 23rd-26th.
Nato at 70: Europe fears tensions will outlast Trump
02 April 2019
The Financial Times
“The transatlantic relationship is changing: it’s a transition that started before Trump’s presidency and will continue after,” says Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. “His approach that the US gains nothing from alliances is something that is specific to him. But the shift of interest to Asia and a general reluctance to get involved militarily because of the experience of forever wars has shaped the thinking of the next generation of American leaders.”
Record stockpiling at factories as fears of a no-deal Brexit rise
02 April 2019
The Telegraph
Separate research appeared to confirm that politicians’ failure to agree a way forward has intensified the uncertainty facing businesses. Goldman Sachs estimates the economy has lost out on growth amounting to an extra 2.4pc of GDP since the Brexit referendum, amounting to £600m per week. That estimate is matched by the Centre for European Reform, though the Bank of England puts it at 1.5pc to 2pc of GDP.
Remainers, take note: Much of Europe just wants to excise the British cancer
01 April 2019
The Guardian
The mood in Brussels is pessimistic. Most of those closely involved in the Brexit talks think the likeliest outcome is for the UK to leave without a deal.
No-deal Brexit: What it means, how it could happen, and how it might affect daily life in the UK
01 April 2019
The Telegraph
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, is confident that if the crunch comes EU member-states will strike bilateral side-deals with the UK to cushion the blow. “For now the Commission is taking a strong line, but EU member-states will have to look after their own interests”, he predicts.
Decision day for the Commons
01 April 2019
The Financial Times
As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform writes, the Dutch, Germans, Irish, Poles and Swedes want to leave the door open to the UK. “But many other governments, and senior figures in the commission, are keen to excise the British cancer from the European body politic.”
Cabinet Office spends £5.5m in a month on Brexit consultants
01 April 2019
The Guardian
At the weekend the Centre for European Reform released calculations suggesting Britain’s economy is 2.5% smaller than it would have been if voters had chosen to stay in the EU in 2016, resulting in an extra £19bn of government borrowing a year.
Ukrainians living in Great Britain vote as experts analyze choices
01 April 2019
Kyiv Post
Ian Bond, a foreign policy director at the Centre for European Reform, said: “Zelenskiy has no experience in any description in politics rather than on screen,” he said, referencing to the TV series, Servant of the People, where Zelenskiy plays the president of Ukraine. “The big concern is that he may turn out to be just a front for Kolomoisky and Kolomoisky does not have a good reputation.”
A customs union beckons — and it won't stop trade deals
31 March 2019
The Sunday Times
As the trade expert Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform says he is now tired of pointing out, being in a customs union with the EU does not require Britain to sign up to the EU’s common commercial policy, under which it negotiates trade deals with other countries.
Brexit uncertainty shrinks UK economy and costs country £360m per week
31 March 2019
The National
The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller than it would have been had the country voted to remain in the European Union, with a knock-on effect to public finances of £360 million (Dh1.7 billion) a week, according to the Centre for European Reform.The cost exceeds the false assertion by the "leave" campaign in the run-up to the Brexit referendum in 2016 that being a member of the EU costs the country £350m a week to support the National Health Service – the government agency providing healthcare services in the UK.
The reality of Britain's role in the global trading system after Brexit remains deeply uncertain
30 March 2019
The Independent
Continuity agreements are in place with a small number of countries but replicating the arrangements that Britain currently benefits from will be the overriding priority throughout the transition period - if there is one - and beyond.
Un ‘brexit’ sin acuerdos, a lo que se está arriesgando el Reino Unido
30 March 2019
El Tiempo
Christian Odendahl, jefe economista del Centre for European Reform, explicó a este diario que “la UE, y con seguridad Alemania, se asegurarán de evitar una salida brutal, aunque forzarán al Reino Unido a participar en las elecciones europeas”.Todos los gobiernos europeos prefieren la salida acordada, pero la incertidumbre y la impaciencia van endureciendo las posturas. Francia lidera esa línea más dura.
How China is planting its flag in Europe - and why it's bad news for Italy and France
30 March 2019
The Telegraph
“There is concern about the [Huawei communications infrastructure] 5G issue. At the same time German industry has a somewhat divided position in that they don’t want the government interfering and deciding to brand things as nationally critical technology meaning that they can’t then sell things very easily,” says Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform.
Angst and anger reign on the Brexit day that wasn't
29 March 2019
Euronews
The EU announced this week that it believes it is "increasingly likely" the UK will fail to reach any deal at all. "They don't trust the UK political class not to screw up," Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think tank, tweeted Thursday.
Is Europe ready for the next crisis?
29 March 2019
Barron's
Christian Odendahl, a Berlin-based economist at the Centre for European Reform, says that because the tools, both fiscal and monetary, currently being used are limited, it’s time to invent new ones. He suggests, for example, that the central bank break free of its lone and strict mandate—an inflation target at “below but close to 2%—and deliberately overshoot, which would legitimize even more monetary stimulus.
It’s been exactly two years since we triggered Article 50 – and what an utter mess it’s been since
29 March 2019
The Independent
By the government’s own estimates, the prime minister’s deal would leave our economy 3.9 per cent smaller than it would have been by 2030, while a report by the Centre for European Reform put the cost of Brexit at £25bn annually – or £500m a week and £71.43m daily. Imagine what our hospitals and schools could do with over £70m more per day.
RTÉ Radio 1: Morning Ireland
29 March 2019
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform spoke to RTÉ Radio 1: Morning Ireland about the Brexit chaos.
Brexit: Rolled-over UK free trade deals 'are incomplete'
28 March 2019
BBC News
Sam Lowe, a trade expert from the Centre for European Reform, agreed. "A big part of the problem is that DIT has continually oversold both its capacity to replicate the existing agreements and the nature of those it has managed to replace. "If the government had been a little more honest from the start, then it might not have come as such a surprise to many people and businesses when they fell short," he said.
BBC Radio 4: The Briefing Room: Britain's future
28 March 2019
With the route of the UK’s departure from the European Union still unclear, this week David Aaronovitch looks at Britain’s place in the world and assesses what lies ahead in the next stage of negotiations with the EU. Joining David in the Briefing Room are: Ngaire Woods, Dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, Sam Lowe, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Reform, Meg Russell, Director of the Constitutional Unit at University College London and Stefanie Bolzen, London Correspondent of German newspaper, Welt.