Research
Alemania debe tomarse más en serio la desvinculación de la UE de China
30 January 2024
El Pais
La considerable ventaja de Donald Trump en las encuestas sobre el presidente de Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, es un presagio de dolor económico para Europa, sobre todo para la mayor economía del continente.
How Brussels can precision-tune its instruments of trade conflict
29 January 2024
Financial Times
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform solves two paradoxes about how the UK’s trade performance apparently hasn’t suffered from Brexit the way you might have predicted.
Europe is heading for perilous waters, and its leaders are dozing at the tiller
27 January 2024
The Observer
Trump’s resurrection “would endanger European interests but Europe is not investing in mitigating the risks,” warned Ian Bond, of the Centre for European Reform. Defence, transatlantic economic relations and Trump’s disdain for the rules-based international order were looming problem areas.
Preparing Europe for Trump 2.0
27 January 2024
Financial Times
In this article for the Centre for European Reform think-tank, Ian Bond sets out some fairly drastic options for Europe if Trump were to pull the plug on Ukraine: "Nato and EU members that take defence seriously should be war-gaming not only how to save Ukraine, but how to respond to an attack on an EU or Nato member in the event that the US decided to remain aloof.
‘Very damaging’: ECB policy fuels fears for German economy
27 January 2024
EurActiv
Andresen’s comments were echoed by Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, who told Euractiv that “most of the data suggests that the ECB should cut aggressively and rather soon”, although he didn’t expect the ECB to actually cut rates “until April or June”.Tordoir also pointed to studies – including by the ECB itself – which suggest that inflation in the eurozone, unlike in the US, is largely supply- instead of demand-driven.
Trump 2.0 – Wie sich Europa auf ein Comeback des Ex-Präsidenten vorbereiten kann
26 January 2024
Handelsblatt
Die drei Ökonomen Shahin Vallee, Sebastian de Quant und Sander Tordoir fordern in einem Aufsatz noch etwas anderes: Dass Europa auch wegen eines unter Trump drohenden US-chinesischen Handelskriegs noch schneller wirtschaftlich unabhängiger von China werden müsse.
Spanish workers leaving UK in droves blaming Brexit and cost of living
25 January 2024
iNews
Brexit led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the labour force as foreign workers left the UK, according to a report published last January by think-tank the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe. In hospitality and the food sector, it was four per cent or 67,000, while construction experienced a two per cent drop.
EU reveals new economic security plan to resist ‘fierce’ Chinese tech competition
25 January 2024
EurActiv
Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform, similarly praised the package’s general sentiment but criticised it for proposing “too much of the same soft coordination that has failed us so far”.“I think directionally, it makes sense what they’re doing,” Tordoir told Euractiv. “They’re focussed on the right fault lines in the toolkit, like export controls and FDI screening, where Europe has been most vulnerable, fragmented.”
Brexit is leading to growing Balkanisation for business
25 January 2024
Financial Times
This week’s chart is a newsletter exclusive and comes courtesy of John Springford, at the Centre for European Reform. It addresses one of the conundrums of post-Brexit trade patterns that have perplexed researchers and economists.Here’s the question Springford poses: “The UK’s goods exports to the EU have not performed any worse than to the rest of the world, and its services exports have grown strongly. How come?”
Germany needs to take the EU's de-risking from China more seriously
24 January 2024
Internationale Politik Quarterly
With another Trump presidency in the offing, Europe and Germany need to accelerate their efforts to reduce their economic dependencies on China.
Indo-Pacific calling: Where is the US heading and what does it mean for Europe?
24 January 2024
Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung
The geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting towards the Indo-Pacific. What are the implications for the transatlantic relationship?
Europa ist auf Trump nicht vorbereitet
23 January 2024
Die Zeit
Exportabhängigkeit und Handelsüberschuss: Die Probleme zwischen der EU und China sind schon groß genug. Trump könnte die europäische Wirtschaft in die Krise stürzen.
Trump may be President again in a year. Europe must be ready
19 January 2024
Encompass
On 20 January 2025, the next US President will take office. In November 2023, the editor-at-large of The Washington Post, Robert Kagan, wrote “A Trump dictatorship is increasingly inevitable. We should stop pretending”.
EU prepares for possible second Donald Trump presidency
18 January 2024
CNN's Rosemary Church speaks with Ian Bond of the CER about how Europe is preparing for a possible second Donald Trump presidency.
CER Podcast: The Taiwan election: China cares, but should Europe?
18 January 2024
Ian Bond, Christina Keßler, Philippe Le Corre and Helena Legarda discuss the Taiwan election.
Germany, once a powerhouse, is at an economic 'standstill'
18 January 2024
The New York Times
“Germans are so risk-averse, it’s almost a psychological thing,” said Sander Tordoir, an economist at the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank in Berlin.
Europe scrambles to finalise new fiscal rules after lawmaker vote
17 January 2024
Euronews
According to Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform, the hawkish German government is unlikely to relinquish the numerical targets so painfully hammered out in December – but might be willing to concede on some subdsidiary issues. Tordoir, a senior economist at the think tank, is optimistic a deal will be found, as there’s no unbridgeable philosophical gulf between the parliament and council.
Europe wants to Trump-proof in case of a second term. But that is not an easy task
14 January 2024
CNN
“No amount of de-risking can make up for a sudden policy change that makes it harder for Europeans to sell into America,” says Ian Bond, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “In a second term, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could decide some other material is a risk to American security.”
Half the world to vote in 2024, with global ramifications
09 January 2024
Voice of America
“Putin is not going to have any genuine opponents,” said Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform. “He has control of all the administrative machinery required to make sure that a crushing vote in favor of him is delivered and we get another six years of Putin up to at least 2030.”
Remember how we used to be? We are not the same
05 January 2024
Politico Brussels Playbook
As Charles Grant from the Centre for European Reform points out, von der Leyen faces far tougher, existential challenges than the French Socialist did. The current Commission president “has a much tougher set of problems to deal with,” he told Playbook. “Delors had to cope with Bosnia and the ERM [Exchange Rate Mechanism] crisis, while VDL has had to deal with even bigger headaches like COVID, Ukraine, illegal immigration and the rise of the far right/Orbán.