Press
One year on, it’s clear that Brexit has failed on its advocates’ own terms
25 December 2021
The Independent
Now that the Brexit deal has been in force for a year, it’s worth looking at initial claims from the politicians who forced through an exit from the EU’s single market.
Brexit one year on: So how's it going?
25 December 2021
The Guardian
Asked how Brexit has gone so far, Charles Grant, director of the think-tank the Centre for European Reform, says that, ironically, the most obvious post-Brexit negotiating successes for the Johnson government have been in areas where it has managed to stay close to the EU, not move away – such as the “rolling over” of EU trade deals.
Brexit one year on: How has Britain fared outside the EU?
24 December 2021
The Times
The Centre for European Reform has attempted to isolate the impact of Brexit by looking at Covid-affected trade flows in other countries and then comparing them with those seen by Britain.That analysis concluded that, since the transition period ended, leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK goods trade with the EU by 15.8 per cent as of August 2021.
Brexit one year on: The impact on the UK economy
23 December 2021
The Financial Times
John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, estimated the likely UK trade performance based on a model, “doppelgänger UK”, derived from the performance of similar countries.
CER end of year podcast: Review of 2021
22 December 2021
As 2021 draws to a close, the CER researchers reflect on the events of the past year.
Just a year of Brexit has thumped UK's economy and businesses
22 December 2021
Bloomberg
As of October, UK goods trade with the EU was 15.7% lower than it would have been had Britain stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union, according to modeling by the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank. That tallies with a UK government analysis of 2018, which predicted a 10% decline in trade.
Brexit: The economic impact a year on
21 December 2021
BBC News
Economic modellers at the Centre for European Reform ... compare the UK as it is with a doppelgänger UK, following the attributes of EU economies that were most similar before Brexit and before Covid.
Isolating the Brexit effect suggests a drop of 11 to 16% in the amount of UK trade, which in October came to 15.7% on imports and exports, worth £12.6bn.
Isolating the Brexit effect suggests a drop of 11 to 16% in the amount of UK trade, which in October came to 15.7% on imports and exports, worth £12.6bn.
Frosty resignation Leaves Boris Johnson with Brexit meltdown
20 December 2021
The Washington Post
To try to isolate Brexit effects, John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, created a nifty algorithm that used pre-pandemic data on GDP, goods trade, population, industrial production and other factors to create a “doppelganger” UK that closely tracked the real UK. His model finds that goods trade was between 11% and 16% lower in October as a result of the UK leaving the single market in January 2021 — a cost of 12.6 billion pounds ($16.7 billion).
Lord Frost's resignation exposes threat Boris Johnson faces from Tory right
19 December 2021
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, tweeted: “When I was in Brussels two weeks ago, meeting EU & govt officials, I was told that [Frost] was personally responsible for the dire state of EU-UK relations.”
Intervjuu⟩ Energeetikaekspert: uut hinnahüpet võime näha juba järgmisel talvel
17 December 2021
Postimees [Estonia]
Venemaa teeb Euroopa energeetikareformide pärast kära, sest näeb, et see on nende gaasist sõltumise lõpu algus, ütleb Elisabetta Cornago mõttekojast Centre for European Reform.
Leaders expected to shy away from discussion of specific sanctions
16 December 2021
Financial Times
“Policy-makers should continue to be relaxed about inflation and not take the eye off the recovery ball,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. “The real risks from high energy prices are weakness in consumption and a potentially weaker economy in 2022 and 2023, not inflation.”
Firms brace for extra Brexit red tape amid supply lines squeeze
16 December 2021
Bloomberg
In October, UK trade in goods was 12.6 billion pounds ($16.7 billion) less than it would have been had Britain stayed in the EU, according to research by the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank.
No sign UK Government cares one whit on Brexit woe
15 December 2021
The Herald Scotland
The Centre for European Reform think-tank estimated on Monday that, in October, UK goods trade was 15.7 per cent, or £12.6 billion, lower than it would have been if the country had stayed in the European single market and customs union.
Relations review
14 December 2021
Politico
Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said the UK will keep a watchful eye on whether France tries to block reforms to NATO that London considers a priority, such as standing up to China in the Indo-Pacific, boosting cyber security capabilities and investing more on defense R&D.
Why EU-UK data flows have a dim future
13 December 2021
Encompass
After Brexit, the EU and the UK reached an uneasy truce to maintain the free flow of personal data between them.
ITV News: Analysis shows Brexit caused £12 billion of lost trade in October
10 December 2021
The pandemic delivered a huge shock to UK and global trade but the deputy director of the CER, John Springford, told ITV News he’s “pretty confident” that Brexit is to blame for the slump.
Putin kalkulerer med Vestens svaghed
10 December 2021
Weekendavisen
Et sådant skridt vil formentlig føre til et totalt stop for russisk olie- og gaseksport til Europa. Vil vi kunne leve med det i en situation med mangelfulde leverancer og stærkt stigende energipriser? »Det er ikke et ideelt tidspunkt her til vinter. Olie kan vi købe andre steder på verdensmarkedet. Men gas er et problem, fordi størsteparten transporteres i rørledninger. Der er muligheder, blandt andet LPG (flydende gas, der transporteres i containere, red.), men kan den erstatte al den gas, der kommer fra Rusland? Formentlig ikke,« svarer Ian Bond.
Germany’s new government has big plans. It might be a shock after Merkel.
08 December 2021
Vox
“After 16 years of very little progress, I think Germany is in for a bit of a modernization shock,” said Christian Odendahl, the Berlin-based chief economist for the Centre for European Reform.
The New Statesman: World review podcast - Farewell Merkel, hello Scholz
08 December 2021
"Germany understands that it's time for a 'period of modernisation'" said Christian Odendahl of the CER, on the modernising ambitions of Olaf Scholz as Chancellor.
Franco-British relations shouldn’t be a circus
06 December 2021
Encompass
Relations between the UK and France are a mess. Boris Johnson has told Emmanuel Macron in cod French to “Prenez un grip”.