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The Centre for European Reform’s John Springford developed an algorithm that compares data on UK performance with that of 22 other advanced economies; it is weighted to form a non-Brexiting (or doppelganger) UK for contrast. Updated results in December found that UK GDP is 5.5% lower than it would have been had Brexit not happened. Investment is 11% lower and goods trade 7% lower (services trade was mostly unaffected). That equates to roughly £40 billion ($50 billion) in lost tax revenue, which is making it harder for the government to cut taxes or meet other spending priorities. 

According to the latest research by the Centre for European Reform, an independent think-tank, the UK’s economy is now 5.5 per cent smaller than it would have been had the UK remained in the EU.

"It's been more than a slow burn. It's been a serious reduction in economic performance," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank."If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP," he said, pointing to a string of dismal economic data.

The latest analysis conducted jointly by two UK-based thinktanks, the Centre for European Reform and The UK in a Changing Europe, brings into sharp focus Brexit’s effect on the UK workforce. The research, led by John Springford at the London School of Economics and Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, finds that Brexit has reduced the UK’s workforce by 330,000 people, the equivalent of 1% of the total.

Det er en udlægning, som den britiske sikkerhedsekspert Ian Bond er enig i. Han er tidligere topdiplomat og nu direktør ved tænketanken Centre for European Reform. »Når Erdogan kan vise, at han er hård mod de kurdiskforsvarende skandinaver med deres foragtelige liberale ideer om ytringsfrihed og alt det der, så appellerer det til hans nationalistiske vælgere«, siger han. »Og den her ekstremt tåbelige og provokerende afbrænding af en koran her i weekenden betyder, at Erdogan kan vise sine islamiske støtter, at han forsvarer islam ved at stoppe de gudløse skandinavers forsøg på at komme ind i Nato«, fortsætter sikkerhedseksperten.

Migration was quite a big deal, Brexit-wise, but six years on, and two after the end of free movement, what has been the impact? The level of net migration certainly hasn’t fallen, but a new report from Jonathan Portes and John Springford argues that if you focus on workers, the end of freedom of movement has left about 330,000 fewer in Britain (460,000 fewer Europeans, but 130,000 more from elsewhere). That’s a reduction of roughly 1% of the labour force, prompting many to say that a lack of migration drove recent economy-wide labour shortages.

“I think this [Qatargate] will make it less likely for von der Leyen to co-operate with the Parliament,” said Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the think-tank the Centre for European Reform. She said the Commission president is riding high after weathering a pandemic, and now the war in Ukraine.