Press

In the face of such onslaughts, it is easy to understand the German reaction described by Charles Grant in an IHT Global Opinion article, "When 'Anglo-Saxon' commentators criticise Germany for imposing excessive austerity, the response can veer toward paranoia."

Stephen Tindale, of the Centre for European Reform, said, “Almost half of the Russian government's revenue comes from various taxes on oil and gas exports." Tindale says that leaves the Russian economy highly vulnerable to a fall in oil prices.

Still, Ms Merkel and her team are worried about Mr Hollande’s commitment to reducing the French budget deficit and to carrying out domestic structural reform, said Charles Grant, director of the CER, who was just in Berlin.   

The end result is a long (very long) 20,000 word paper for the Centre for European Reform think tank, who have kindly published the results this week (though I am, in general, a bit more sceptical about the project than the CER). The paper draws on meetings and interviews, on and off the record, with ministers, MPs, MEPs, politicians, national officials, EU officials and think-tankers, reflecting all shades of Euro-opinion, in London, Brussels, Paris and Berlin. It also offers a sort of potted history as to how we got here: why Britain is a uniquely grumpy member of the club.

"The atmosphere in Europe has changed fundamentally. Yes, we were in an economic crisis in 2011, when Libya happened, but there was still a sense it was a manageable crisis. Europe had confidence that it doesn’t have today," said Tomas Valasek of the CER in London.

It comes down, as the CER said, to a choice between fear and anger, both negatives. Of course the car could change course and stop for a service on the way. That is the least likely option at the moment, because it would mean German taxpayers, who already believe they have gone through their years of pain, going through a few years more.

The bloc's fledgling foreign service, under the leadership of Catherine Ashton, can do very little as "EU diplomacy is still the lowest common denominator," said Edward Burke of the CER.

An Irish ''no'' would not by itself derail the fiscal treaty - only 12 eurozone countries are required to ratify it. But Hugo Brady, of the CER, said: ''The sense of a backlash against austerity would be much enforced.''