Press
Report: 'Deluded' UK cannot afford to be smug on Brexit
23 February 2017
Global Government Forum
Britain is in a weak negotiating position and will have to win the goodwill of leaders in Europe if it is to avoid economic chaos following Brexit, according to a report by independent think tank the Centre for European Reform (CER).
Letting the Lords have their say
23 February 2017
The Economist
The big risk is that the eventual result will be good neither for Britain nor for the EU. In a new paper for the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, Charles Grant notes that this is because “both the UK and the 27 are placing politics and principles ahead of economically optimal outcomes.” Sadly, it was ever thus.
Brexit: What does leaving the EU mean for expats?
23 February 2017
The Telegraph
There have also been fears that member states angered by Brexit could try to put pressure on British expats in revenge. For example, Spain could ask British retirees to pay for their own healthcare, according to the Centre for European Reform's John Springford, or move to curb access to healthcare services outright.
A quick trade deal with the US after Brexit is less likely than we think
22 February 2017
The Spectator
It is many a Brexiteer’s fantasy: In 2019, shortly after the UK formally leaves the EU, Theresa May welcomes Donald Trump to Downing Street to ink a trade pact.
Greek debt: Will EU and IMF finally offer light at the end of the tunnel?
22 February 2017
The Guardian
Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a thinktank, said he believed the IMF and eurozone would find a compromise, whereby the fund signed up to the 3.5% target for a limited period of time, as the price of stabilising the eurozone in an election year. “My feeling is they will largely settle for a fig leaf. It will be made to look as if the pace of austerity has been eased, ie that the eurozone will agree that the size of the primary budget surplus will be reassessed at some specified point in the future.”
Francois Holland zaprosił "cztery najważniejsze kraje UE
21 February 2017
Rzeczpospolita
Tradycyjnie w sprawie ściślejszej współpracy w strefie euro istniał spór między Niemcami a południem Europy. – Ściślejsza integracja miała prowadzić do unii transferowej, czego Niemcy nigdy nie chciały – zauważa Agata Gostyńska, ekspertka Center for European Reform w Londynie.
Brussels focuses on UK's €60bn exit bill before trade talks
20 February 2017
Financial Times
Given the EU-27 want to leave this to the last stage of talks, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, argues the timing for transition talks will be “particularly contentious”. “The UK will want interim arrangements to be fixed as soon as possible in the separation talks, to dissuade footloose companies from quitting the UK,” he wrote in a CER paper released on Monday.
Brexit briefing: A critical test for Corbyn's Brexit strategy
20 February 2017
Financial Times
Not just hard, but difficult, Theresa May will trigger Article 50 and begin talks on leaving the EU in a few weeks. With many of the details still uncertain, Charles Grant analyses the options still open to the UK as it forges a new relationship with the EU.
'No deal' Brexit would mean £6bn in extra costs for UK exporters
20 February 2017
The Guardian
"I doubt UK farmers know what’s coming," said John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform. "There is a real risk for the average British farmer that they could be dealing with much worse trading terms."
Inner Brexit circle: May is playing it close amid government tension
20 February 2017
The Guardian
Still, security and immigration are clearly priorities for her government. Questions over whether that comes from the number of Home Office imports are aired in a paper by Charles Grant, director of the CER. “People in the inner circle may become overstretched so that important decisions are delayed, and centralisation may discourage the tapping of outside expertise,” he writes.
CER podcast: What free movement means to Europe and why it matters to Britain
16 February 2017
Discussion on the politics and economics that underlie differing views of free movement in the UK and Europe.
Storbritanniens militærmagt er jokeren i Brexit-forhandlingerne
15 February 2017
Information
»Europæerne er opmærksomme på det britiske bidrag til sikkerheden i Europa, så det vil spille en rolle i forhandlingerne. Det vil kunne hjælpe briterne, men det vil også kunne skade briterne. De vil kunne miste en hel del goodwill, hvis de spiller deres kort forkert,« siger Sophia Besch, ekspert i NATO og europæisk sikkerhed ved tænketanken Center for European Reform i London.
Theresa May needs to compromise with the technocrats
15 February 2017
E!Sharp
As British prime minister, Theresa May has the right – and the power – to interpret the referendum result as she sees fit.
Bad-tempered Brexit talks loom as May’s demands irk Europe
10 February 2017
Bloomberg
“The British may over-estimate the strength of the cards they hold,” Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said in a note. “That means that May and her ministers should conduct the talks in a sober, courteous and modest manner.”
The multi-billion-euro exit charge that could sink Brexit talks
09 February 2017
The Economist
In a new report for the CER, Alex Barker of the Financial Times, puts the figure at anything between €24.5bn ($26.1bn) and €72.8bn. The bill comprises three main elements. Mr Barker reckons Britain’s share could amount to €17.4bn. The government will struggle to explain why voters should be on the hook for payments made after Brexit. But the European Commission will argue that Britain’s approval of the current budget, which runs until 2020, obliges it to cough up.
Draghi meets Merkel as populist concerns trump ECB criticism
09 February 2017
Bloomberg
“A period of above-target inflation is exactly what the doctor ordered,” said Christian Odendahl, chief economist of the London-based Centre for European Reform, pointing to the currency bloc’s output gap. “If anyone can convince her to support such a course of action, it’s Draghi.”
CER podcast: Kori Schake on Donald Trump and what he means for Europe
09 February 2017
Kori Schake discusses how European leaders should approach the Donald Trump presidency, the real checks and balances of the American political system and why she is optimistic about the NATO Summit.
The May Doctrine
08 February 2017
The New Statesman
Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that rather than choosing a “hard” – the Prime Minister prefers “clean” – Brexit, May should have tilted more towards those who voted Remain. She should have pursued what he calls “an economically optimal deal, something like Norway but a bit different, where we would more or less have been in the single market with a little bit of restriction on free movement”.
Theresa May outfoxes pro-EU opponents on Brexit vote
08 February 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, says Sir Keir has “half a point” and that if the vote was held early enough Mrs May might come under pressure from business and the City to go back and try again.
Five Brexit challenges as Britain leaps into the unknown
08 February 2017
Financial Times
But the commission calculates that Britain owes €60bn. As a paper for the Centre for European Reform notes, this is “a far cry from the £350m-a-week bounty promised by Brexit campaigners during the referendum campaign”. This demand could prove to be the decisive stumbling block.