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Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform thinks this is a powerful argument. He tells me: “The European Commission is very good at targeting its retaliation on trade and looking at ways it can exercise the maximum leverage. Britain doesn’t yet have any of the technical capability to draw up such a retaliatory list.”

Observers of the negotiations said the EU had maintained a unified position with some flexibility for London to build on in the talks. “European Council guidelines on FTA coherent and generally sensible, given UK red lines,” wrote Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform.

"The likeliest outcome remains a president's government of national unity to govern for six months to a year while the politicians gear up for a new election," said Luigi Scazzieri, the Italian specialist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Sam Lowe, a trade expert at the Centre for European Reform think tank, agreed, arguing that convergence in those areas made “doing a deal with the US incredibly difficult, as the majority of their aggressive objectives involve removing regulatory barriers to trade, especially when it comes to food standards”.He added that it would make sense for the UK to keep its focus on European links. “I’d question the logic of running into a trade deal with a president who sees trade less as a means of achieving mutual prosperity and more an instrument of war.”

“In the end, most FTA partners will continue to grant preferential treatment to UK exports throughout the transition, but we might need to buy some of them off,” said Sam Lowe, international trade expert with the Centre for European Reform think-tank.
“This is their period of maximum leverage vis-à-vis the UK, so it would be negligent for them not to at least try and get guaranteed concessions, to come into effect once the arrangement has been replaced post-transition, from the UK.”