Press

"Never before has so much ridden on the Germans," said Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform in London. "We're very fortunate that Germany is led now by Merkel, because there is a chance she will step up and do what Europe needs her to do."

It’s not just tanks. The EU’s 28 countries also maintain 12 kinds of tanker aircraft and 19 kinds of fighting aircraft, according to Sophia Besch at the Centre for European Reform. In Eastern Europe, many spare parts are still supplied by Russia. Some countries that do spend more, like Greece, fritter defence budgets away on a vast headcount and military pensions, rather than technology.  When states do procure hardware, they are overwhelmingly protectionist, coddling their own industries at the cost of effectiveness. As Ms Besch puts it, the whole system is full of “duplication and redundancy”.

The deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, Simon Tilford said: "You clearly see a scenario where instead of moderating Trump, the House and the Senate fall behind him, and there the implications for Europe could be pretty serious."

Obawy w Europie wzbudziły też jego wypowiedzi o możliwym wycofaniu się USA z NATO i nazwanie tej organizacji "przestarzałym" sojuszem, który kosztuje USA "majątek". Od tego czasu zdążył wycofać się z tych słów, zapewniając, że "całkowicie popiera NATO", jednak zdaniem ekspertów jego słowa wyrządziły szkodę. "Jego sympatia dla Putina i transakcyjne podejście do obrony Europy powinno być powodem do niepokoju dla każdego państwa w Europie, które w kwestii obrony polega na NATO" - zaznacza Sophia Besch z think tanku Centre for European Reform.

"It is true, everything seems possible these days," said Agata Gostyńska, EU Institutions research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, a pro-EU think-tank. "But on the other hand, there is some pattern with populists. They are really sharp at gaining power when on the outside, but when they get into power and are constrained by real politics they tend not be so successful."

Nevertheless Sophia Besch, a research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said: "Europe's security is at stake in these US elections. Trump has publicly questioned the solidarity commitment that is at the heart of the NATO alliance, declaring US support conditional on Europeans increasing their own defence budgets. His proximity to Putin and transactional approach to defending Europe should be of deep concern to every European state that depends on NATO’s protection."

"The EU-27 will say, 'it's a work in progress'," said Simon Tilford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform. "They will say: 'The aspiration is four fully functioning freedoms, so we can't do anything to compromise our ability to meet that aspiration at some point'."