Press

"Over the past year, China's behaviour has changed," said Charles Grant, director of the London-based Centre for European Reform. "Relatively hard-line and nationalist elements in the leadership appear to have sidelined those with liberal and international instincts. "China's foreign policy has become more assertive." ..."The current [Chinese] leadership, led by Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, is due to hand over to the 'fifth generation' of leaders in 2012," Mr Grant said. "There is much manoeuvring for position.

As this excellent Washington Post analysis by John Pomfret describes, China's pique at the Taiwan arms sales is of a piece with its growing chest-thumping. The article cites a new study by the Centre for European Reform, How should Europe respond to China's strident rise? and includes a bracing quote from author Charles Grant about China's treatment of European overtures: "The Europeans have competed to be China's favored friend, but then they get put in the doghouse one by one."

The unease over China's new tone is shared by Europeans as well. 'How should Europe respond to China's strident rise?' is the title of a new paper from the Centre for European Reform. Just two years earlier, its author, institute director Charles Grant, had predicted that China and the European Union would shape the new world order. "There is a real rethink going on about China in Europe," Grant said in an interview from Davos.

Charles Grant, fin connaisseur de l'UE, salue "le plus éloquent dirigeant européen du moment". Bien sûr, le discours a "des relents populistes" mais il est " intellectuellement cohérent", souligne-t-il, pour aussitôt rappeler l'incohérence avec certains faits. "Sarkozy dénonce le protectionnisme mais défend les usines en France comme Renault à Flins".

Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a London based think-tank, says he and others who felt China was about to embrace multilateralism were guilty of "wishful thinking".

Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform in London argued on these pages that it must be bailed out, instead. There are two other possibilities: Greece toughs it out; or Greece just defaults.

"I just think they can't do it, and their growth prospects are worse than the Government is predicting," Simon Tilford, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said. "They need to make cuts, but the country has shown little or no ability to do it" — either to cut the pension costs and early retirement extracted by the unions, to cut waste in hospitals and defence or to curb rampant tax evasion in the private sector. Even if Greece made the cuts, that would push it into a slump and deflation; crippling for such a highly indebted country.

"Ukraine has gone from being a darling of the EU to a complete and utter nightmare," says Tomas Valasek at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. "A few years ago most EU states were convinced it should be in the European Union within a few years. All that has changed."

European officials say they are conscious of the potential to do damage by loading one regulation atop another. But in a new paper, Philip Whyte of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank, says "little attention is being paid to the overall impact of all the proposed changes".