Press
The week in review - More gloomy forecasts and May remains vague
25 November 2016
Financial Times
Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, said: “Most of the key people in the Brussels institutions have low expectations of what can be achieved in the Brexit negotiations. Indeed, some foresee a serious risk of the Article 50 talks breaking down and of Britain therefore pursuing a very hard, WTO-rules-only, exit.”
The next vote that could rock Europe to its core occurs next week
25 November 2016
The Express
Simon Tilford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform (CER), said that an Italian referendum on the eurozone would lead to considerable instability in Europe. Mr Tilford said: “The act of calling that referendum would precipitate a crisis in Europe. It would embolden populist and anti-Europe parties elsewhere.”
The £59 billion reckoning
24 November 2016
Bloomberg
John Springford of the Centre for European Reform reckoned that Brexit would leave the economy 3.2 per cent smaller in 2030 than had voters chosen to stay in the EU. "In the long-term then, Brexit means lower spending or higher taxes," Springford said in a report. "The key political question is who will be at the receiving end of these measures."
Tok FM: Kto będzie chciał mieć ostatnie słowo w sprawie Brexitu?
24 November 2016
The CER's Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska speaks to Tok FM about Brexit.
It's impossible for the government not to screw up Brexit with only 24 months to seal the deal
23 November 2016
The Independent
From figuring out the negotiations guidelines to drawing up a transition deal, parliament's vote, European Court of Justice reviews and even talks about who gets what wine from the Commission's cellar, drawing up a Brexit deal will take years not months.
Brexit uncertainty could hit investment in UK, warns German car chief
23 November 2016
The Guardian
Charles Grant, of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said in a report that the EU was showing “surprising” unity on its red lines for Britain’s departure and was preparing for a hard Brexit that would leave the UK outside the single market. Grant said government pronouncements since October had contributed to “an erosion of the goodwill that EU leaders feel towards the UK. They reckon that UK politics is being driven by emotion rather than reason and that there is not much they can do to prevent a hard Brexit”.
Brexit Briefing: Dancing on a cliff edge
22 November 2016
Financial Times
As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform writes in a comprehensive analysis on Tuesday, EU officials "insist that during the transition the UK would have to accept free movement and European Court of Justice rulings. They know that this may be politically unacceptable for May."
The TPP is dead, so what does that mean for Canada?
22 November 2016
CBC News
Rem Korteweg, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, told EU Trade Insights that Trump's strategy resembles the Chinese playbook. Expect the US to engage less with the EU, Japan and South Korea, which have a trade surplus with the US, he said. Unlike Obama, Trump won't make trade deals a foreign policy tool, Korteweg told the online trade publication. Instead, he will take a "narrow, transactional approach to FTAs like China used to do."
Donald Trump is a domestic tragedy for America and, as his TPP decision suggests, a catastrophe for Brexit Britain
22 November 2016
The Independent
As Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform points out, the US negotiators may well demand American pharmaceutical giants be given the freedom to undermine the monopoly drug-buying power of the NHS, or to prise open the British agricultural market, in its entirety, to dominant US producers.
Brexit Britain faces threat of higher EU barriers
22 November 2016
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, said commission officials insist “not entirely convincingly” that this tightening is unrelated to Brexit. But “France is driving this hard line on financial services and nobody is resisting”, he said.
PM warned transition Brexit deal 'fiendishly difficult' to achieve
21 November 2016
The Guardian
Charles Grant, director at the think-tank Centre for European Reform, said seeking a transition deal could delay key aims of May’s Brexit negotiations such as immigration controls and freedom from European court of justice rulings. “May now understands the need for a transitional deal to cover the period between when the UK leaves the EU and when a new free trade agreement comes into effect, several years later,” he said.
Politics may trigger shift in European economic policy
21 November 2016
Reuters
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the European Commission's call for more spending was unlikely to sway Germany. "The change needs to come from within," he said. But Odendahl does believe that a more vigorous debate is developing within Germany over the wisdom of Schaeuble's "Schwarze Null", or balanced budget, policies.
Polskie Radio 24: Brexit: Szkocja i Walia mają głos
19 November 2016
The CER's Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska speaks to Polskie Radio 24 about the Supreme Court's decision to allow Scottish and Welsh governments to join the court's case.
Politics may trigger shift in European economic policy
18 November 2016
The Daily Mail
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform, said the European Commission's call for more spending was unlikely to sway Germany."The change needs to come from within," he said. But Odendahl does believe that a more vigorous debate is developing within Germany over the wisdom of Schaeuble's "Schwarze Null", or balanced budget, policies.
Brexit: Could UK get 'associate EU citizenship'?
17 November 2016
BBC News
Camino Mortera-Martinez, an EU justice expert at the Centre for European Reform, said there was "no appetite for treaty change in Brussels at the moment".
CER podcast series: The economics of populism, episode one
16 November 2016
In this episode, Barry Eichengreen and Martin Wolf discuss 'Are macro-economic policy failures behind the rise of populism?'
Tok FM: Chaos wokół Brexitu?
16 November 2016
The CER's Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska speaks to Tok FM about the chaos surrounding Brexit.
Brexit: The view from Central Europe
15 November 2016
Social Europe
The UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU is a blow to Central Europe. The Central European countries will urge other member-states to maintain close ties with post-Brexit Britain.
How does Trump's win affect UK's EU exit plan
15 November 2016
The Guardian
Which prompted Ian Bond of the Centre for European Reform to offer the government this post-Trump Brexit advice: "The UK should focus on leaving the EU with the minimum damage to its relations with its European partners. That argues for minimising its demands and trying to achieve a quick agreement … If the UK is not to take a big economic hit, it needs to stay inside the single market. It should not make cutting EU migration its top priority, and try to salvage what it can of its market access."
EU scales back plans for military HQ as it unveils crisis response blueprint
14 November 2016
The Guardian
“Even if Hillary Clinton had won, there was always awareness that Europeans would need to do more for their own defence,” said Sophia Besch at the Centre for European Reform, but a Trump presidency had created “more urgency”.