Charles Grant
Charles Grant
Director
Areas of expertise
Britain’s relationship with the EU, the ‘future of Europe’ debate, European foreign and defence policy, and China's relations with the West.
Twitter
T3VyIHJlc2VhcmNoZXJzIGNhbiBiZSByZWFjaGVkIHZpYSBlbWFpbCB1bmRlciBbZmlyc3RuYW1lXUBjZXIuZXU=
An open letter to Keir Starmer: Ten suggestions on how to foster better relations with Europe
08 July 2024
In an open letter to Keir Starmer, Charles Grant offers ten suggestions on how the Labour government can improve the UK-EU relationship.
What will the EU election results mean for Europe?
11 June 2024
The populist right and far right will not dominate the new European Parliament. But the election results will influence the EU’s agenda and legislation over the next five years.
China and the West: The gap is set to grow
05 June 2024
China’s relations with the US and the EU are likely to worsen, because of both its aid for Russia and its economic strategy.
Ten reflections on Jacques Delors
04 January 2024
Jacques Delors’ impact on history, especially during the ten years that he headed the European Commission, was immense.
EU enlargement is not a foregone conclusion
Financial Times
14 December 2023
It will be a slow process and European leaders will have their work cut out persuading voters of the merits.
Labour's European conundrum
Renewal
10 December 2023
If and when the Labour Party takes office, it will come under pressure to negotiate a much better Brexit deal than that bequeathed by Boris Johnson.
A European strategy for Labour
27 September 2023
Keir Starmer will find it hard to improve the Tory Brexit deal – which most EU leaders like. But if he is willing to offer something in return, they may give him a better deal.
25 years on ...
30 May 2023
This 150th edition of the bulletin appears 25 years after the first. It prompts me to recall the birth of the CER in 1998.
A British strategy for Europe?
03 April 2023
After nearly seven years of acrimony, the UK and the EU are talking sweetly to each other. The Ukraine war reminded them how much they have in common.
Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU?
01 March 2023
The Windsor deal on the Northern Ireland protocol may herald warmer UK-EU ties. It has strengthened von der Leyen and Sunak. But the Retained EU Law bill promises trouble.
The Protocol deal is a win for Sunak – and the EU
The Spectator
27 February 2023
Soon after Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British government demanded changes to the Protocol.
The impact of the war in Ukraine: Annual report 2022
10 February 2023
The CER's annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe. The report then highlights some of the CER's most important publications and events from 2022.
Can Truss reset relations with the EU?
29 September 2022
Britain’s new prime minister has the chance to rebuild bridges to the European Union. But it is unclear whether she will seize the opportunity.
Macron is serious about the 'European Political Community'
01 August 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron is committed to creating a ‘European Political Community’, distinct from the EU. European states not in the EU – including the UK – should take the concept seriously.
A very French Europe?
26 April 2022
Emmanuel Macron’s decisive victory in the presidential election will reinforce France’s pre-eminent position in the EU. But Macron won’t have everything his own way: some Central and Eastern European member-states will oppose French policies, the British will remain a headache and the Germans may thwart some French ideas.
Can the West stay united on Ukraine – and what will China do?
30 March 2022
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Western unity will fracture. Meanwhile the choices that China makes will determine the future shape of geopolitics.
How the world has changed in 25 years: Annual report 2021
07 February 2022
The CER has been in business for about a quarter of a century – we published our first pamphlets in 1996 and opened our London office in 1998.
UCL European Institute: Exploring European policy careers with Charles Grant
20 January 2022
In a new video series, Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform reflects on his career trajectory to date and shares advice for students exploring careers in policy or a related field.
As Frost departs, will the ice melt across the Channel?
20 December 2021
David Frost’s resignation as Brexit minister matters: he greatly influenced Boris Johnson’s Brexit policy. With Liz Truss replacing him, UK policy towards the EU may become less confrontational.
‘Europe after September 11th’ revisited
30 September 2021
The attacks of 9/11 brought the major powers together. But that unity did not endure, and the world now risks division between the West and the authoritarian powers.
Five years since the referendum: A short reflection, and some highlights of the CER's Brexit coverage
23 June 2021
Five years have passed since the British voted to leave the EU. Since then the CER has published 174 papers on Brexit.
The new geopolitics: Annual report 2020
11 February 2021
The CER’s annual report features an essay on 12 geopolitical trends that are reshaping Europe. The report also describes some highlights of the CER’s work on Brexit, economics and foreign policy.
Ten reflections on a sovereignty-first Brexit
28 December 2020
The UK-EU trade deal prioritises sovereignty over economics. Politicians will soon be talking about how to improve the deal. Very little about the UK’s long-term relationship with the EU has been settled.
Deadly coronavirus, domineering China and divided America: What the new geopolitics means for Europe
17 December 2020
Trump's presidency and COVID-19 have destabilised geopolitics, creating problems for the US and the EU, while strengthening China.
A Brexit deal may yet emerge from the current confusion
22 September 2020
Despite the brouhaha over the Internal Market Bill, both the British government and the EU still want to clinch a deal, and that remains a plausible outcome.
Lukashenka fights for survival
13 August 2020
There was never any doubt who would ‘win’ Belarus’s presidential election. But the country is undergoing profound changes – which pose dilemmas for both Russia and the EU.
I'm optimistic about a Brexit deal – despite the gloomy outlook
The Guardian
28 July 2020
Both Brussels and London have moved in talks, and both grasp the political advantages of even a minimal free trade agreement.
Something is stirring in Belarus
07 July 2020
As Belarus’s presidential election approaches on August 9th, opposition to Alyaksandr Lukashenka is growing. The EU needs a strategy for the country.
Coronavirus is pushing the EU in new and undesirable directions
15 May 2020
COVID-19 is transforming the EU works in several ways, accelerating trends that were visible before the virus struck. These changes are good news for anti-EU populists.
How coronavirus is reshaping Europe in dangerous ways
The Guardian
14 May 2020
From green backlash to reimposition of border controls, pandemic is accelerating tensions that could unravel the EU.
Coronavirus: EU struggling to show solidarity in face of ‘existential’ crisis
The Parliament Magazine
21 April 2020
The EU’s response to COVID-19 has given plenty of ammunition to its opponents. Frontiers have been closed and supply chains broken as countries have put their own needs first.
After coronavirus: How will Europe rebuild?
The Guardian
12 April 2020
Coronavirus has given hope to those who wish to see the EU stumble. Countries have put their own needs first and trust among governments has diminished.
CER podcast: Are the Brexit negotiations doomed to fail?
04 March 2020
The EU and the UK have now published their objectives outlining what they want a future EU-UK partnership to look like. There is much headline disagreement, but is there a landing zone in sight? Charles Grant and Sam Lowe discuss.
How the EU can survive Brexit
The New Statesman
05 February 2020
There are tensions between Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel – but unless France and Germany can work together the bloc will fragment.
Can France and Germany steer Europe to success? Annual report 2019
06 February 2020
The CER's annual report features an essay on the state Franco-German friendship. It also describes some of the CER’s achievements in 2019, including the increasingly prominent role played by our Brussels and Berlin offices.
CER podcast: Brexit bulletin special
29 January 2020
In this special Brexit episode of the CER podcast, Charles Grant explains why the CER is still needed after Brexit; Sam Lowe discusses the future of UK-EU trade; and Ian Bond explores the fate of UK foreign policy.
Who needs the CER?
27 January 2020
Regardless of Brexit, the CER will continue to devise policies to make the EU more effective and successful, and to improve the quality of Britain's relationship with it.
Deal or no deal? Five questions on Boris Johnson's Brexit talks
20 September 2019
The rough shape of a deal between the UK and the EU is emerging: Northern Ireland would follow EU rules in some areas but not others. Yet the two sides remain far apart.
A no-deal Brexit is not inevitable
12 August 2019
A majority of MPs want to avoid a no-deal Brexit on October 31st. But if Boris Johnson is determined to leave the EU without a deal, MPs will struggle to stop him.
EU officials don't relish the idea of no deal – but they are prepared to play hardball
The Guardian
19 July 2019
Brussels is gloomy about the prospect of Britain crashing out, but political realities could see a compromise emerge.
How the Kremlin sees the rest of the world
The New Statesman
29 May 2019
Russian analysts reckon the US will be less focused on intervening around the world and will be more nationalist, mercantilist and interest-focused.
The Brussels view of Brexit
14 May 2019
The EU is no longer as united as it was on how to handle the British. But just about everyone working on Brexit in the EU’s institutions and governments is fed up with them, and they do not believe that Britain’s politicians are capable of getting their act together and resolving the problem.
Remainers, take note: Much of Europe just wants to excise the British cancer
The Guardian
01 April 2019
The mood in Brussels is pessimistic. Most of those closely involved in the Brexit talks think the likeliest outcome is for the UK to leave without a deal.
The lessons of Brexit: Annual report 2018
04 February 2019
The CER's annual report features an essay on the lessons of Brexit. It also describes some of the highlights among our events and publications during the year we celebrated our 20th birthday.
Divided Britain will be weaker, poorer after looming Brexit
The Asahi Shimbun
23 January 2019
With the March 29 deadline for Britain's leaving the European Union fast approaching, it is still uncertain whether the exit will be a hard or a soft one. The Asahi Shimbun interviewed Charles Grant, the head of a British think-tank, to ascertain what can be expected from the Brexit as well as the possible economic impact and other effects.
In search of lost Brexit: How the UK repeatedly weakened its own negotiating position
The New Statesman
14 January 2019
In 2018 the British were obsessed with Brexit, but the rest of the EU had much else to worry about. Although the migration crisis abated, EU governments could not agree on how to handle irregular immigration.
What happens if Parliament rejects May's Brexit deal?
16 November 2018
Theresa May's deal on Brexit is heading for defeat in Parliament. That could lead to no deal, the negotiation of a different deal, a general election, a second referendum – or MPs swallowing the package at the second attempt.
Merkel is going but Germany won’t shift its stance on Brexit
The Guardian
30 October 2018
The departure of Angela Merkel from the leadership of her party will make little difference to the Brexit negotiations.
„May ist ein Desaster”
Bilanz
10 October 2018
Das Endspiel hat begonnen: Brexit-Experte Charles Grant über den Niedergang der politischen Klasse in England, das Trauerspiel der Premierministerin – und das Vorbild Schweiz.
Britain's best Brexit hope is a revised Chequers plan
The Financial Times
03 October 2018
A Brexit deal between the EU and the UK is more likely than not, because both sides really want one. But there is a serious chance of no deal, because of differences over the Irish “backstop”.
Theresa May's Chequers plan may yet have some life in it
Prospect
12 September 2018
Theresa May’s Chequers plan for the future UK-EU relationship appears moribund.
The EU's problem with May's plan for Brexit
20 July 2018
The EU doesn’t like the UK’s plan for Brexit and says one cannot be in just parts of the single market. But if May shifts her red lines, the EU response could be more positive.
Europe's response to May's plan could cost her more ministers
The Guardian
10 July 2018
The EU’s initial reaction to the Chequers plan is polite, but negative. The prime minister will have to make further concessions before it is accepted.
Single market in goods will come at a price for Brexit Britain
Financial Times
20 June 2018
Many of the recent arguments over Brexit have concerned customs arrangements. But another thorny issue is creating discord both inside the British government and between the UK and the EU: should the UK remain in the single market for goods trade?
Is Macron becoming isolated in Europe?
13 June 2018
Macron thinks the EU is not viable without radical reform. His priority is to reshape the eurozone, but Germany is blocking his bolder ideas. He risks isolation in Europe, which could weaken him at home.
Ireland's border is a problem it can't afford to leave unsolved
The Guardian
20 March 2018
The border issue could still wreck Brexit talks. But no-deal would damage Ireland almost as much as it would Britain.
Theresa May's moment to soften her Brexit stance
The Financial Times
23 February 2018
Twenty months after the Brexit referendum, the British government is inching towards working out what to ask for in its future relationship with the EU.
Macron's plans for the euro
23 February 2018
Decision-makers in Paris sense a golden opportunity to reform the eurozone. They are optimistic that, notwithstanding political uncertainty in Germany, some key reforms can begin this year.
Theresa May can't afford red lines on Brexit
Politico
07 February 2018
Future relationship has to be a trade-off between rules and access.
The fight for liberal values: Annual report 2017
06 February 2018
The CER's annual report features essays on the creation of the CER, the CER at 20, Brexit, economics and Donald Trump's impact on geopolitics, it also highlights some of our work on foreign and defence policy.
Statement regarding comments by Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker in House of Commons
01 February 2018
The CER would like to provide the following clarification following an exchange in the House of Commons involving Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the DexEU which mentioned CER director Charles Grant.
'Canada', 'Norway' or something in between?
26 January 2018
The EU will reject's Britain's request for a bespoke partnership based on regulatory alignment. The UK will have to put up with a Canada-style deal, unless it shifts its red lines.
Europe holds all the cards in the Brexit talks
Financial Times
01 December 2017
EU negotiators are confident Britain will eventually accept a deal on their terms.
UK + EU = Canada+?
01 December 2017
A post-Brexit deal along the lines of the EU-Canada trade agreement would do a lot of damage to the British economy. Can the UK hope for anything better?
Ten predictions for the Brexit talks
29 November 2017
Arguments over the Irish border may block the start of talks on the future EU-UK relationship. When those talks begin, the EU will reject British proposals for a bespoke deal.
Relaunching the EU
07 November 2017
The EU is ripe for fundamental reform. New policies are needed for migration and the euro. The EU also needs more flexible structures so that countries can opt in and out of key policies.
How Brexit will unfold – Britain will get a deal, but it'll come at a price
The Guardian
09 November 2017
The UK will end up paying €50bn and accepting a hard Irish border: 10 predictions based on my conversations with people on both sides.
Fast forward to two-speed Europe
Politico
07 November 2017
Macron's calls for a more flexible bloc will make it more attractive to new members.
Judy Asks: Does May need Merkel for a Brexit deal?
Carnegie Europe
18 October 2017
No, Theresa May needs to impose some discipline and unity on her own troops in order to achieve a workable deal.
The EU will become less monolithic
19 September 2017
The EU is becoming less monolithic and will develop tiers of membership. This could re-energise the enlargement process and neighbourhood policy – and may allow the UK to re-engage one day.
Preparing for a softer Brexit
CIRSD Horizons
18 September 2017
The UK's general election has increased the chances of a softer Brexit. But what would that look like? And could it involve a customs union with the European Union?
The EU is changing – and the UK attitude to Brexit could change too
The New Statesman
03 September 2017
The people running the EU have always wanted it to be uniform.
The real problem with Brexit talks is there are hardliners on both sides
The Guardian
28 August 2017
Will the October summit of EU heads of government deem that “sufficient progress” has been made in the UK’s talks on leaving the EU?
Britain prepares for a softer Brexit
27 June 2017
Britain’s general election has increased the chances of a ‘softer’ Brexit. But what would a softer Brexit look like? And could it include a customs union with the EU?
May wanted a mandate for a hard Brexit. Now Europe expects a softer tone
The Observer
11 June 2017
Prime minister's crumbling authority offers a new chance for compromise – and the EU could scale back its demands.
The 10 Brexit compromises Theresa May won't talk about
The Guardian
19 June 2017
Neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn said much about the substance of the Brexit negotiations during the election campaign.
Macron, Merkel and the future of the euro
24 May 2017
Emmanuel Macron wants to change the way the eurozone is run. But can he persuade Angela Merkel?
How will Germany respond to Emmanuel Macron?
08 May 2017
Germany is divided on how to respond to Macron: some are wary of a new bargain to revive the Franco-German alliance, others are enthusiastic.
The meaning of Macron
20 March 2017
The surge of support for Emmanuel Macron in France shows that liberal, pro-EU centrists may yet have a future in European politics. This would be good for the EU.
Mrs May's emerging deal on Brexit: Not just hard, but also difficult
20 February 2017
What will the Brexit deal look like? Which are the key decisions that Theresa May still has to make? And what should she do in order to get the best possible deal?
The year of Brexit and Trump: Annual report 2016
13 February 2017
The CER's annual report features essays on how Brexit and Trump are changing the world. It also highlights CER research on Brexit, economics, foreign policy and much else.
May is weak in Europe but strong at home
26 January 2017
The EU-27 fear domestic politics will drive Britain towards a very hard Brexit. But Theresa May is strong enough at home to resist such pressures, if she wishes to.
What does Theresa May's speech tell us about how Britain will leave the EU?
17 January 2017
Theresa May has decided on a hard Brexit, putting sovereignty ahead of economics. She thinks the negotiations will take only two years, but they will take longer.
BBC Radio 4: World at One talks to Charles Grant
20 December 2016
Charles Grant talks to the World at One about Nicola Sturgeon's announcement on Scotland staying in the single market (22:42).
Russia Today: Charles Grant warns that Nicola Sturgeon's single market plans are 'unrealistic'
20 December 2016
Charles Grant says independence is the more realistic way for Scotland to stay in the single market.
BBC Newsnight: Charles Grant on Boris Johnson's free movement comments
02 December 2016
Charles Grant talks frankly to BBC Newsnight about Boris Johnson's recent free movement comments to EU foreign ministers. (From 23 mins)
Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit
21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals
28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.
How Brexit is changing the EU
15 July 2016
By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
Por qué Reino Unido perdió la batalla
El Pais
04 July 2016
La hostilidad hacia las élites se ha convertido en una fuerza poderosa, no solo en Europa sino también en EE UU. Para la Unión Europea es un problema porque, según el autor, siempre será vista como una institución ligada a la clase dirigente.
The impact of Brexit on the EU
24 June 2016
The EU will not dissolve after Brexit, but it will change incrementally. The UK will probably end up with a free trade agreement like Canada’s.
Can Britain join Norway in the EEA?
09 June 2016
Pro-EU MPs might try to force the UK to accept membership of the EEA – the ‘Norway option’ – if Britain votes to leave the EU. Charles Grant and John Springford debate whether this is likely.
Is the EU to blame for the crisis in Ukraine?
01 June 2016
Brexiters accuse the EU of blundering into Ukraine and provoking conflict with Russia. But Brussels’ attempt to boost trade with Ukraine cannot justify Russia’s military intervention.
Why Britain voted to leave (if it does...)
26 May 2016
Remain could lose on June 23rd, because of the EU's many problems, the Outers' focus on migration and the difficulty of mobilising younger voters.
Is the EU responsible for the crisis in Ukraine?
Prospect
26 May 2016
Many of those demanding Brexit blame the EU for blundering into Ukraine and setting off a chain reaction that led to bloody civil war.
Cameron's deal is more than it seems
23 March 2016
Cameron's deal on EU reform is more significant than many commentators realise. It points the way to a looser, more differentiated Union.
Deal done: Now for the hard work
20 February 2016
David Cameron did better than expected at last night's EU summit. But the deal will sway few voters, and Cameron must now make the case for the EU.
The global case for staying in the EU
The New Statesman
19 February 2016
Brexit would be bad not just for Britain but also for Europe and the rest of the world.
The Spectator podcast: EU referendum
18 February 2016
Charles Grant joins the Spectator's political editor James Forsyth to discuss David Cameron's negotiations at the February EU Summit.
Annual report - 2015
Charles Grant discusses the CER's work in 2015, the geopolitical significance of the EU, the impact of Brexit on the EU, and the forthcoming UK referendum. Simon Tilford writes on the CER's work on economics last year, and Ian Bond on our work on foreign policy.
Cameron's EU deal is far from fixed
08 February 2016
In the run-up to the European Council on February 18th and 19th David Cameron is fighting to improve his deal on EU reform. Others are resisting.
The continental view of Cameron's renegotiation
16 December 2015
David Cameron’s insistence on excluding migrants from in-work benefits means that he cannot strike a deal on EU reform at this week’s summit.
Cameron's EU gamble: Five reforms he can win, and ten pitfalls he must avoid
23 October 2015
Cameron's package of EU reforms will not be exciting. He could lose the referendum, because of the EU's many problems and the weakness of Britain's pro-Europeans.
25 years on: How the euro's architects erred
05 November 2015
The original plans for the euro – conceived 25 years ago – suffered from five major flaws. Only some of these flaws have been fixed.
The battle for reform in Kyiv
16 September 2015
The government in Kyiv has introduced some important reforms. But vested interests and corruption are thwarting its efforts to modernise the state and the economy.
Could eurozone integration damage the single market?
27 July 2015
Britain fears that the eurozone could caucus and impose rules on the EU single market. So David Cameron is asking for safeguards to protect the market.
David Cameron should stand up to the eurozone
Financial Times
31 July 2015
Can Britain, a country that plans to keep its own currency, feel comfortable in an EU that is increasingly focused on the euro and its troubles? As David Cameron’s government starts negotiations with its partners on the terms...
Britain’s EU referendum: Cameron cannot please two audiences any longer
26 June 2015
As Cameron kicks off the renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership, his strategy will inevitably lead to a breach with Tory eurosceptics.
Five ways to win a referendum, and five potential pitfalls
27 May 2015
Cameron's plans for winning an EU referendum could fall victim to the euro crisis, rows on migration and the reluctance of other governments to help him.
Will Europe ever stop being a headache for David Cameron?
The Telegraph
26 June 2015
The PM is trying to please too many people who want very different outcomes.
How to build a modern European Union
10 October 2013
The CER proposes reforming the EU’s policies and institutions, to foster a more dynamic European economy and to make decision-making more accountable.
Russia, China and global governance
29 February 2012
Will the 'multipolar' world have strong international institutions, or will balance-of-power politics prevail? The attitudes of Russia and China will be crucial.
The continental view of Cameron's renegotiation
16 December 2015
David Cameron’s insistence on excluding migrants from in-work benefits means that he cannot strike a deal on EU reform at this week’s summit.