Research & Press

If the German left want to succeed, it must offer more than Merkel's status quo

18 August 2017
The Guardian
The German elections on 24th September are bound to be boring. Polls show Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) leading the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) by 15 percentage points.

Hopes for European ‘safe’ bonds lean on pre-crisis techniques

17 August 2017
Financial Times
Christian Odendahl, chief economist at think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said that despite the efforts to distance the plan from the concept of debt mutualisation, Germany was likely to regard it with suspicion.
“The Germans feel that this is a clever way of persuading them to sign up to something which at least has the potential to become debt mutualisation by the back door,” he said. “Particularly if there was an agency doing the structuring and sales of these products, the markets would perceive that as 100 per cent safe and expect a bailout if it goes wrong.”

Brexit trade talks may be reduced to as little as 10 months

17 August 2017
The Guardian
If phase two slips to the end of the year, “it is not a huge problem for the EU, they know in terms of timing they have the upper hand,” said Christian Odendahl, Berlin representative for the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Ekspert: okres przejściowy sprzyja miękkiemu Brexitowi

15 August 2017
Onet Biznes [Poland]
Zawarcie w planach brytyjskiego rządu okresu przejściowego, w którym zachowane byłyby obecne przepisy dotyczące ceł, wskazuje na sukces zwolenników tzw. miękkiego Brexitu - ocenił w rozmowie z PAP John Springford z CER.

Britain's Brexit papers aim to fast-track customs talks

15 August 2017
Financial Times
“The UK government knows that some of the member-states are worried about the commission’s position that transition arrangements cannot be discussed until ‘sufficient progress’ has been made on divorce arrangements and agreeing the final relationship,” said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “They are hoping the Nordics in particular will put pressure on Barnier to acknowledge quickly that sufficient progress has been made on those areas.”

UK to seek 'temporary customs union' after Brexit

15 August 2017
Channel News Asia
Professor Alan Winters, director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex described the proposals as "vague and aspirational" - a view echoed by John Springford, director of research at the Centre for European Reform think-tank, who accused the government of "constructive ambiguity".
Philip Hammond and Liam Fox's Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream

Philip Hammond and Liam Fox's Brexit transition plan is a pipe dream

14 August 2017
The Guardian
The deal sketched out by the international trade secretary and the chancellor is one the EU could never agree to. Why did they go public with it?

No Britain, no missiles! EU has 'lot riding on' working with UK - ex-Macron defence aide

Francois Heisbourg
14 August 2017
The Express
Europe has a "lot riding on" securing continued defence co-operation with Britain after it has left the EU, the former advisor to French president Emmanuel Macron Francois Heisbourg has said in a CER podcast.

Newsnight: The customs union

14 August 2017
Charles Grant speaks to Newsnight about the customs union, and what the UK is hoping to negotiate (from 5.05 mins).

Retired Brits 'rushing to move to Spain, Portugal and France' before Brexit makes it more difficult

14 August 2017
The Mirror
But migration expert John Springford, of the Centre for European Reform, warned the “golden age of British retirees heading to the Costas is probably over”. And he told the Guardian: “Retirees are expensive. There is no way Spain would allow lots of Brits to retire there and use their health system unless young Spanish people could come and work in the UK. If we don’t have free movement, it’s very unlikely we’d have retirement rights.”

Brexit: UK retirees rushing to settle in Europe, say financial advisers

13 August 2017
The Guardian
“The golden age of British retirees heading to the Costas is probably over,” said John Springford, a migration expert who is director of research at the Centre for European Reform. He pointed to research that found that while young immigrants provided an economic boost in most OECD countries, people turned into a net drain on national finances somewhere between the age of 40 and 45.
CER podcast: François Heisbourg on Franco-German defence co-operation and the EU defence fund

CER podcast: François Heisbourg on Franco-German defence co-operation and the EU defence fund

Sophia Besch, François Heisbourg
11 August 2017
Sophia Besch speaks to Francois Heisbourg about the future of European defence co-operation.

Le miracle économique allemand n’est pas celui que l’on croit

08 August 2017
Le Monde
C’est ce que s’est employé à faire l’économiste allemand Christian Odendahl, membre du Centre for European Reform, un think tank européen basé à Londres. Il vient de publier une étude intitulée « Le mythe Hartz », où il fait tomber quelques idées reçues. « Beaucoup attribuent le succès économique allemand aux réformes Hartz et recommandent que le reste de l’Europe s’en inspire, détaille l’auteur. Mais il y a des raisons d’être sceptique. »

Brexit bill: No longer if, but when and how much

07 August 2017
Politico
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said such a proposal had merit and could allow the Brexit talks to progress to the next phase. “There is a strong feeling among UK and EU officials that the best way to present the Brexit bill is as payments during a transition, in return for market access,” he said. “Three years of paying about £10 billion a year would mean the UK handing over a large part of what the EU wants — not all of it, but enough to create goodwill and probably to get the EU to talk about trade.”

Germany's trade surplus

05 August 2017
Moneyweek
A paper by economist Christian Odendahl of the Centre for European Reform questions this account of Hartz, finding that the total number of hours worked in Germany has barely increased since the end of the 1990s, while the number of low-paid jobs and of Germans at risk of poverty have both spiked during the same period.

Tok FM: Brexit - czy rząd brytyjski ma opracowaną strategię?

04 August 2017
Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska talks to Tok FM about the UK government and if it has developed a Brexit strategy.

Eurozone hopes PIIGS may fly

03 August 2017
Marketplace
Not all economists are saluting the Germans, however, nor are they all overly impressed by the latest rosy assessment of the bloc’s performance. Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform said the austerity program made matters worse in Greece, and that country has still not really rebounded.

Militärmacht auf dem Weg ins Abseits

30 July 2017
Frankfurter Allgemeine
Mit der Abkoppelung von Europa bekommt dieser Wehrbeitrag eine neue Stoßrichtung: „Die Sicherheitspolitik soll auch der Brexit-Prosperitätsagenda dienen, das Land als globale Macht aufzustellen – nicht nur als spezialisierte Militärmacht im europäischen Verbund“, sagt Sophia Besch, Expertin für Sicherheitspolitik am Center for European Reform in London.

No Dunkirk Spirit Can Save Britain From Brexit Defeat

28 July 2017
The New York Times
As Simon Tilford at the Center for European Reform has pointed out, Britain will be much less attractive to the foreign-owned businesses that generate half its exports once they cannot sell to the Continent without barriers.

Dublin heaps pressure on May over Northern Ireland

28 July 2017
Financial Times
Charles Grant, director of the think-tank the Centre for European Reform, said there was a nearly 50 per cent chance that Britain remains in a customs union with the EU indefinitely — in a move that would open up the possibility of a soft Irish border.
“If Labour as a bloc [at Westminster] decides that Britain should stay in a customs union, then there is no parliamentary majority for not being in a customs union,” he said.

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