Research

Aspects of Britain’s relationship with the EU, including co-operation on justice and policing and the Good Friday agreement on Northern Ireland, are predicated on British membership of the convention, said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “It’s not just an emotional thing, it really matters to the EU,” he said.

Attitudes on migration are hardening in the bloc, said Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office of the Centre for European Reform.“The political consensus has been for a long time on the issues of increasing returns [of failed asylum-seekers] — which is one of the most tricky parts of any migration policy, and also border controls and the fight against irregular migration — ironically enough, the kinds of things that the U.K. government had been asking for for a long time when it was inside of the European Union,” she told VOA.

Borrell going beyond what EU countries agreed contributed to the perception that the EU is divided on the conflict, said Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. At the same time, Borrell’s remarks have also helped signal to the Middle East that some Europeans are willing to be more robust in holding Israel accountable, said Scazzieri of the CER.

Camino Mortera-Martinez, head of the Brussels office at the Centre for European Reform think tank, said Lord Cameron’s appointment was a surprise, but given what followed, he still compares well. “He started everything off, but his successors were so bad that he is probably perceived as something like one of the few adults in the room,” she said. “And he campaigned for staying in the EU, so I guess that counts for something.”

As John Springford at the Centre for European Reform pointed out, the drop in imports from the EU to the UK (while the rest of the EU’s have risen) points clearly to a Brexit impact on UK trade which is plausibly the result of the UK being slowly cut out of EU value-chains.

“The stunning surge in Chinese imports from the Netherlands over the past few months is a result of Beijing’s buying spree of Dutch chip machinery company ASML before the drawbridge gets pulled up,” said Sander Tordoir, a senior economist at the Centre for European Reform.

Chancellor Scholz has an eye on upcoming European elections, scheduled for June next year, says analyst Camino Mortera-Martinez of the Centre for European Reform in Brussels.