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China and the West: The gap is set to grow
China’s relations with the US and the EU are likely to worsen, because of both its aid for Russia and its economic strategy.
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And the winner is… Vladimir Putin (for now)
Putin’s ‘election victory’ does not mean that he will remain in power forever. Western leaders should plan for continued confrontation, but (unlike Putin) they should not fear change in Russia.
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China and Russia: Are there limits to 'no limits' friendship?
China has mostly offered Russia rhetorical support in its war against Ukraine. Beijing seems uncomfortable with Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling. But China is unlikely to allow Russia to be decisively defeated.
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Now is not the time for Ukraine to negotiate
Various Western figures are encouraging Ukraine to begin peace negotiations with Russia. But a ceasefire now would leave Ukraine vulnerable to a renewed Russian attack. Ukraine needs weapons, not wavering.
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Can the West stay united on Ukraine – and what will China do?
The longer the war in Ukraine continues, the greater the risk that Western unity will fracture. Meanwhile the choices that China makes will determine the future shape of geopolitics.
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