Britain & EU member-states
Autumn Statement 2016: How will Brexit affect the budget?
23 November 2016
‘Brexit’ will be added to the Collins dictionary this year, and one Twitter wag suggested that the dictionary should tweak Theresa May by making the following entry: ‘Brexit (n): Brexit’.
Plugging Britain into EU security is not that simple
22 November 2016
Plugging the British into EU police and judicial co-operation will not be easy. And the UK will probably end up with less generous deals than the ones it has now.
A wake-up call for liberal Brexiters
22 November 2016
Trump's win has further weakened the liberal case for Brexit. Forging the closest EU ties possible is now even more essential for Britain.
Does 'America First' mean EU defence at last?
22 November 2016
The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States puts European security at risk.
Brussels prepares for a hard Brexit
21 November 2016
The EU institutions predict a painful divorce for the UK, because they see hard-line eurosceptics pushing Theresa May away from a soft Brexit.
Not so special: Why the US won't help Britain in the Brexit talks
25 October 2016
The US is watching two of its best friends get a divorce. It is not in its interest to take sides.
Sterling slump won't rescue the British economy
21 October 2016
The 2008 devaluation did not prompt strong growth in British exports. The post-referendum fall in the pound is unlikely to do so either.
Why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit
03 October 2016
The British government needs to understand why the 27 are taking a hard line on Brexit, and then work hard to secure their goodwill.
Bulletin Issue 110 - October/November 2016
19 September 2016
- Why a hard Brexit looks likely, John Springford
- Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse, Simon Tilford
- Europe and its South China Sea dilemma, Rem Korteweg
Why a hard Brexit looks likely
19 September 2016
Recent data suggests that the Brexit vote will not cause a recession. This, coupled with the fact that British voters rejected two important principles of the EU, makes a single market exit all but certain.
Brexit will make Britain's mediocre economic record worse
19 September 2016
Britain is already an average economic performer by Western European standards. Brexit will further sap its economic dynamism and aggravate startling regional disparities
Spain's groundhog day: Why Madrid needs a government
12 September 2016
Whether or not there is a third election, Spain needs a government. Madrid must be a credible partner as the EU confronts multiple crises, from migration to Brexit.
Britain will struggle to make EU migrants ‘go home’
05 August 2016
The British government is likely to let all EU migrants who arrive before the date of Brexit stay in the country. Other options may be politically attractive, but are impractical, of dubious legality, or against British interests.
Theresa May and her six-pack of difficult deals
28 July 2016
Theresa May’s ministers need to negotiate not just one Brexit deal, but six. They must charm not only EU governments, but also every WTO member.
Post-referendum bulletin Issue 109 - July 2016
18 July 2016
- How Brexit is changing the EU, Charles Grant
- Britain's limited options, John Springford
- Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?, Ian Bond
Brexit and foreign policy: Divorce?
18 July 2016
The British government must work hard to minimise the damage to its international influence from Brexit. First step: more investment in relations with European partners.
Britain's limited options
18 July 2016
Britain is one of the more populous countries in Europe, is highly integrated with the European economy, and is 21 miles from France. These facts limit its room for manoeuvre in the Brexit negotiations.
How Brexit is changing the EU
15 July 2016
By boosting Europe's populists, Brexit is making EU governments increasingly hostile to the 'federalism' of the Brussels institutions. It is also making Germany even more preponderant.
Long day’s journey into economic night
11 July 2016
Economic developments in Britain since the referendum suggest that a recession is coming. And the politics of the negotiation with the EU suggest the country will suffer a prolonged period of weak economic growth.
Dear EU leaders, please handle Britain with care
29 June 2016
Britain is in serious trouble. It does not need further concessions from you, but the dust needs to settle before it can take decisions about its future.