Press

Yet Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform, another think-tank, says the sole practical option in such a short time would be a bare-bones deal that covered goods trade alone. Such a deal might avoid the need for parliamentary ratification. But it would do nothing for services, which make up 80% of Britain’s economy and half its trade. It would not cover security, data and much else.

With Emmanuel Macron’s caustic comments likely to dominate the Nato gathering, Ian Bond at the Centre for European Reform argues that reports of the Nato’s “brain death” are still exaggerated: “Even if Nato can get through the London meeting unscathed, its leaders should not just breathe a sigh of relief and hope that Trump will be out of office by the time of the next summit (expected in 2021). In reality, Trump, Erdogan and Macron all have some valid criticisms of Nato. The solutions they pursue are likely to do more harm than good to security in Europe; but the correct course is to look for better solutions, not to ignore the problems.”

„Wir neigendazu, uns zu sehr auf dieUnterschiede und Problemezu konzentrieren,obwohl es viele Punkte gab,in denen die Kommissionsich bemüht hat, den Zentral- undOsteuropäern entgegenzukommen“, sagt Agata Gostynska-Jakubowskader Denkfabrik „Centre for European Reform“.

Johnson’s government has refused to publish an impact assessment of its plans. But research by think tank the Centre for European Reform suggests that in financial services alone, under this scenario UK businesses – which currently export £23.6bn (US$30.5bn) to the EU – could see their export revenues fall by 59%.