Press

"In Europe, we are surrounded by poorer but increasingly internationally mobile peoples who want in to societies boasting the highest quality of life in the world," said Hugo Brady, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. "It is hard to see how we can deter that desire indefinitely. ... The politics of Schengen are such that no one wants to give up control of their own frontiers but everyone wants some control over other countries' borders," said Mr Brady, the research fellow.

Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, was the earliest to recognise Greece's insolvency. More recently, Clemens Fuest, president of the German finance ministry's advisory committee, declared that restructuring, the polite word for default, is inevitable. To which the widely respected director of London-based Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant, adds, "Most intelligent people know there has to be a significant restructuring to ease the burden on Greece, and we're not talking about a painless extension of maturities, but wiping away a large portion of the debt."

Tomas Valasek of the Centre for European Reform think-tank said that despite NATO denials, it did seem the coalition was seeking ways to end the stalemate by targeting Gaddafi. "NATO's official mandate doesn't involve removing Gaddafi from power, so the commanders would deny it and say they are going after communications posts and such, but to me it does smell like they are going after Gaddafi personally. "That would mean a gap between what NATO collectively says it wants to do and what the French, the British and Americans say.

"The easiest way out would be to do the restructuring soon," said Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform in London. "Hit the private creditors and recapitalise the banks. It may still happen."

Tomas Valasek, a defence expert at the London-based Centre for European Reform, compared NATO to an American political party, "a coalition of countries with broadly the same interests, but with different views." It was inevitable after the cold war, he said, that NATO countries would focus on different threats: terrorism and Afghanistan for some, like the United States, Britain, Canada and the Netherlands; Russia, for the Central Europeans. "As for the rest,I don't even know why they stay in NATO." NATO will never be what it was, Mr Valasek said.

"Euro-scepticism is a political force that is waiting for its breakthrough in Ireland," warns Hugo Brady of the Centre for European Reform.

Tomas Valasek, a defence analyst at the Centre for European Reform, said an escalation of the military effort could be necessary - at least in the short term - to end attacks on civilians and apply pressure for a political solution.