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Charles Grant, the director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank, said that following his discussions with French government officials and the commission it was clear that a high bar would be set for an extension. “If there is a very good reason for it, then fine,” he said. “But if it is just because a deal hasn’t been agreed, then that’s not going to be fine. The commission and the French government say they are relaxed about a no deal, although I am not sure they are.”

BREXIT proposals set out in the Government's White Paper have zero chance of being accepted by the European Union in their current form, an economist with the Centre for European Reform think tank has warned. And senior research fellow Sam Lowe has suggested that the facilitated customs partnership idea set out in the document amounts to a "stalking horse" for the UK being part of a straightforward customs union.

The fall in migrant numbers in Italy has given the League party a political boost at home, says analyst Luigi Scazzieri of the Centre for European Reform. "The figures had already dropped very much under the previous government, due to a set of deals Italy had struck with Libya. Indeed, the arrivals had dropped very sharply. Now, of course, the policy of preventing NGO boats from docking has led to an even further decrease. But more than that, it's led to a very strong political win for the League, especially because other European countries have now been forced to take in some of the migrants arriving in Italy," Scazzieri told VOA.

Above all, there is a decision to be made between the current free movement of goods across Britain’s European borders (thus protecting both the peace settlement in Northern Ireland as well as manufacturing supply chains) or taking a maximalist view of “taking back control”. This choice is one that May has taken — in favour of the former. The white paper may not state this clearly — many political fig leaves remain in place — but as Sam Lowe rightly puts it, she is “inching our way towards Jersey”. That refers to the “Jersey model” of free movement of goods, with the UK being a full rule-taker as far as the production and trading of goods is concerned, which both Lowe and I have outlined.

John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, said the EU-Japan deal was a “rebuff to the US attempts to move away from the multilateral order to an order based on the principle of might being right”.

Ian Bond and Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska represented the Centre for European Reform at the Prospect think tank awards, and were delighted to accept the award for Think Tank of the year.