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“Generally, what you see is that larger member states with more power more consistently get the files they care about,” said Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform.
That’s the result of France and Germany’s power in the EU, as well as a “long tradition, an intellectual history really, of French thinking about industry and building a single market,” argued Tordoir. The EU's largest economy, Germany, has been more focused on trade with the rest of the world, he added.

Industrial production in Germany began to fall earlier and faster than in other eurozone countries, says Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform (CER) think-tank, who points out to EL PAÍS the shock that the war in Ukraine has had on the country’s economy: “The German model was based on energy from Russia and on export-driven growth thanks to demand from the United States and China. These pillars have been deeply shaken.”

One crucial development, according to Sander Tordoir of the Centre for European Reform (CER) , a think-tank, is the changing relationship with China. In the 2000s and 2010s Germany was perfectly placed to satisfy Chinese appetites for its cars, chemicals and precision-engineered widgets: goods exports to China rose by 34% between 2015 and 2020, even as those to other countries fell. As recently as 2020 China was a net importer of cars but last year it became the world’s largest exporter.

Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, stated that the EU is actively seeking solutions to enhance trade defences, anticipating a possible increase in redirected Chinese exports. However, she also cautioned that stricter restrictions on Chinese technology imports could potentially disrupt the EU’s transition to greener technologies. By enforcing stringent trade measures in the name of innovation support, the EU risks raising prices, which may slow down consumer adoption of electric vehicles and other clean technologies.

«Le Mercosur est un vaste marché de 300 millions de personnes avec un fort potentiel de croissance, et qui a toujours été protégé de hautes barrières douanières. C’est l’un des derniers accords de ce type susceptible d’avoir un effet significatif sur la croissance européenne», résume Aslak Berg, expert de politique commerciale au Centre for European Reform. Le coup de pouce pour le PIB de l’Union est estimé entre 0,1% et 0,3%.

Certainly, there may be some political upside to basking in reflected Trumpian glory. “The coming Trump presidency will most probably embolden Europe’s far right and illiberal actors,” concluded experts at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

Tras conocerse la ruptura de los socios y el adelanto electoral en Alemania, Sander Tordoir asegura que la crisis añade incertidumbre “a una economía que ya está envuelta en el miedo”, con los hogares y las empresas en modo ahorro tras varios años de estancamiento.