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As Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, says, this means that the EU, nervous of being undercut, will offer Britain only a relatively thin free-trade deal. That implies a harder Brexit with more trade barriers than Mrs May’s deal, raising the costs to the economy of leaving the EU.

The answer is not much, according to a research paper by Sam Lowe of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. He says that access is given, for example, for data processing software, advice and other things that support financial services, "but not for banks' main job - lending".

Sam Lowe, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, said: "These declarations are lodged electronically where they are then assessed on the basis of risk. Presumably for NI exports to GB this process could be streamlined, considering that it is UK authorities operating on both sides of the sea.

“European governments have a very low regard for Trump anyway," said Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform. “They know that they need to work with the United States, but it confirms to them that Trump is incapable of thinking strategically, handing victory to the Russians in Syria.”

The EU doesn't want to be blamed for a no-deal Brexit, so it will likely eventually agree to an extension, said Agata Gostyńska-Jakubowska of the Centre for European Reform policy group."I think the EU should focus on having as constructive a partnership with the U.K. as possible. Now those discussions will not always be easy, but it seems to me that within the EU's mindset, the U.K. has actually already left," she said.

Une vingtaine de personnalités européennes demandent au président du Parlement Européen David Sassoli de ne pas entériner le vote des deux commissions qui ont rejeté la candidature de Sylvie Goulard. ...Comprenant Charles Grant, Directeur du Centre for European Reform, Londres, ancien chef du Bureau de The Economist à Bruxelles, trustee du British Council.

Sam Lowe, the trade specialist the Centre for European Reform said that having a trade agreement completed and ready to go by the end of 2020 was “a very tall order”. “Even if Mr Johnson seeks a ‘bare bones’ FTA, there will still need to be complex discussion on level playing field issues, as well as agreements on a plethora of other areas, such as defence co-operation, justice and home affairs, scientific research and a framework agreement to bind them all together.”